Premier League Match Predictions

With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we provide our Premier League match predictions for every match in each gameweek.

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The Opta supercomputer will be with us every step of the way this season as the projection model works to provide you with data-backed predictions for all Premier League matches and season outcomes.

Of course, Manchester City will take some beating when it comes to the title race, as Pep Guardiola’s men are chasing a record-extending fifth consecutive top-flight title and are overwhelming favourites to achieve that success.

Arsenal are hoping to push City all the way, and while Liverpool no longer have Jürgen Klopp at the helm, Arne Slot is now guiding a squad practically identical to the one that threatened to be a real challenger until the final weeks of 2023-24.

And no doubt we’re in store for another highly competitive UEFA Champions League qualification battle involving the likes of Aston Villa, Tottenham, Chelsea, Newcastle United and Manchester United.

At the other end of the table, Leicester City, Ipswich Town and Southampton are hoping to fare better than the previous teams to be promoted from the Championship – all three were relegated in 2023-24.

Now, all of that is a little far in the future to be given much consideration yet, but our AI-powered Opta supercomputer proved rather prescient in 2023-24 and is continuing to make predictions for every fixture this season.

Read on as Opta Analyst provides its Premier League match predictions for 2024-25, and be sure to check back here ahead of every matchday for the latest projections.

Matchday 11

The Opta supercomputer has delivered its latest selection of match predictions ahead of the next weekend of Premier League football in 2024-25.

Our predictive model has made its picks for the upcoming round of matches, with the league table now taking shape as we move past the early stages of the season, with Liverpool and Manchester City setting the pace and just two teams left at the bottom who are yet to win.

Matchday 11 will see all 10 matches crammed in on Saturday and Sunday, ahead of the third international break of the campaign.

Six games on Saturday include another testing away clash for champions Man City, this time against a Brighton & Hove Albion side who came close to upsetting Liverpool last week.

There is also a huge clash at Anfield as leaders Liverpool take on Aston Villa, who are looking to bounce back from their heavy defeat at Spurs.

Manchester United take on Leicester City on Sunday before the game of the week sees Chelsea host under-pressure Arsenal in a huge London derby.

Ahead of what looks set to be another entertaining group of Premier League fixtures, let’s check out the Opta supercomputer’s match predictions.

Premier League Predictions Matchweek 11: The Quick Hits

• Man City predicted to bounce back from successive losses to Tottenham, Bournemouth and Sporting CP by earning an away victory over Brighton.
• The Opta supercomputer is expecting Liverpool to stay top of the Premier League table with victory over Aston Villa.
• Man Utd, Tottenham and West Ham all backed for home victories this week, with a Spurs win being our predictive model’s most confident pick of MD 11.

A late collapse against Fulham means Brentford (39.8%) could urgently do with a positive result as they host a rampant Bournemouth (35.1%), who have beaten both Arsenal and Man City in recent weeks.

Brentford usually fare well in this fixture, as they have an active seven-match unbeaten run against the Cherries that includes five victories, while Bryan Mbeumo comes into the game having netted in five consecutive home league matches, with seven goals in total during that span.

Bournemouth’s flagship recent wins have come at home, but they have won just three of their last 22 league away games against London sides, with 16 defeats in that run. They have also conceded at least twice in 17 of those 22 matches.

Home advantage means the Bees go into this game as narrow favourites according to the Opta prediction model, but this still looks set to be one of the closest matches of the week, with the draw a strong contender at 25.1%.

Crystal Palace will hope to continue their recent momentum when they take on Fulham in a clash that has been rated as too close to call.

Palace have earned four points in their last two games and also beat Aston Villa in the EFL Cup. Forward Eddie Nketiah will hope to finally get off the mark in this game, as he has now had more shots (17) without scoring than any other player in the Premier League this season, although opponents Fulham are unbeaten in their last six London derbies.

Hosts Palace have a win probability of 37.5% with Fulham’s very close behind at 36.2%, so at 26.3% the draw has a significant chance of occurring, and that has been the outcome in four of the last five meetings between these two sides.

West Ham have lost five of their first 10 Premier League matches and need a positive result as they host Everton.

Recent trips to London have not gone too well for Everton, who have lost their last three league away games in the capital by an aggregate score of 12-1. West Ham, meanwhile, have won their last two at home.

The Hammers go in as favourites at 45.3% with the Opta supercomputer, but they will likely need Jarrod Bowen to perform if they are to live up to that billing. The England forward has scored in his last two top-flight home games for West Ham and has also had a hand in five goals in his last six league games against Everton, with three goals and two assists.

Everton’s chance of victory is not completely discounted at 27.9%, and interestingly this is the most likely Premier League fixture to finish as a draw this week, with that chance rated at 26.8%.

Wolves remain without a win after the chaotic 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace last time out, but they have a good opportunity to get that first victory when they take on promoted Southampton, according the Opta supercomputer.

The home side have a 47.6% chance of winning at Molineux, with Saints’ rating down at 27.9% and the draw at 24.5%.

In a further boost for Wolves fans, Gary O’Neil’s side have won each of their last five Premier League games against Southampton, their longest winning run against any opponent in the competition.

To keep that going Wolves will have to find a way to tighten up at the back, having conceded a league-high 27 goals this season. It’s just the sixth time in competition history that a team has conceded 27 or more after 10 Premier League games.

But Southampton could be ideal opponents as Wolves bid to improve that record, as Saints have scored just seven league goals this season, fewer than any other side.

The Opta supercomputer likes the chances of Manchester City bouncing back from their shock recent losses when they travel to play Brighton in the Saturday early evening fixture.

After losing at home to Spurs in the EFL Cup and Bournemouth in the league last weekend, a heavy UEFA Champions League defeat to Sporting CP on Tuesday was a further blow to Pep Guardiola’s men. They have, however, at least taken 37 points from 42 available against Brighton in the Premier League, scoring in all 14 meetings.

While Premier League top scorer Erling Haaland misfired against Sporting, Phil Foden did find the target to reach three Champions League goals for the campaign. But the England star is yet to score in the Premier League this season, his worst goalless run since a 15-game streak that ended in March 2020. Foden does, though, have more top-flight goals against Brighton (eight) than against any other opponent.

In-form Brighton attacker Danny Welbeck has the chance to make it five straight Premier League games with a goal involvement for the first time in his career, but his side will have to upset the odds to make an impression, as their win probability is 25.2%, with Man City up at 51.3%, the highest rating given to an away team this week.

Leaders Liverpool go into their Saturday evening match with Aston Villa at Anfield as comprehensive favourites.

The Reds have stormed up to 25 points from their first 10 games and have five wins and one draw from their last six home matches against Villa, with the system giving them a 61.8% chance of winning to extend those strong records.

Key to the Reds’ recent success has been Mohamed Salah. With seven goals and five assists, no player has been involved in more Premier League goals this season, while Salah has also had the most touches in the opposition box this term (96).

A heavy defeat to Spurs last time out means Villa are now at risk of losing consecutive league matches for the first time since May 2023. They have an 18.4% chance of an upset victory, but to do so they will need Ollie Watkins to take his chances.

Only Haaland (16) has had more big chances than Watkins (14) this season, but the England striker has netted just four of them, the lowest conversion rate (28.6%) among the seven players to have had 10 or more such opportunities.

Into Sunday’s fixtures and Ruud van Nistelrooy will be targeting his first league win as Man Utd interim manager against Leicester City, the team he recently defeated in the EFL Cup.

United won that Old Trafford clash 5-2 and they have also scored in each of their last 28 league games against Leicester.

The cup clash saw Bruno Fernandes get off the mark for this season with a double, and he followed that up with a penalty in the draw with Chelsea last week. The Man Utd captain has been involved in eight goals in seven starts against Leicester in all competitions, with four goals and four assists, so will like his chances here.

United are strongly backed by our predictive model in this one, with a 65.1% win probability compared to just 16.1% for Leicester. The system is only more confident in a Spurs win this week than it is of a United victory.

Nottingham Forest (33.5%) are third in the league after a stunning start to the season, but they can expect to be put to the test by Newcastle United (40.8%), who earned a first win in six top-flight games by seeing off Arsenal last time out.

The Opta supercomputer narrowly favours the visitors, but all three outcomes are given a decent chance, with the draw rated at 25.7%.

This match will see two in-form strikers do battle. Forest’s Chris Wood has scored in his last four Premier League games and now has the chance to make it five in a row for the first time.

Newcastle’s Alexander Isak, meanwhile, has scored three goals in his two Premier League games against Forest, and comes into the game on a high having netted in his last three straight matches across all competitions, including a headed winner against Arsenal last time out.

Tottenham earned an impressive win over Aston Villa, and the Opta supercomputer has huge confidence in them earning three more points against winless Ipswich Town.

With a big win probability of 74.5%, a Spurs victory is the system’s biggest win prediction across the 10 matches this week, with Ipswich’s chance way down at 10.5%.

Spurs usually thrive in fixtures like these – they have won 32 of their last 36 Premier League home games against promoted sides and have scored at least once in each of their last 42 such matches.

Ipswich, meanwhile, remain winless in their 10 games this season, their longest run without a win from the start of a top-flight campaign. They conceded four goals in both of their last two away games, losing 4-1 at West Ham and 4-3 at Brentford, so stopping Spurs looks set to be a daunting task.

Chelsea and Arsenal are locked together on 18 points before their crunch clash at Stamford Bridge.

It has been a tough spell for the Gunners, who have lost three of their last six games across all competitions, including two straight defeats against Newcastle in the Premier League and Inter in the Champions League.

Chelsea are hardly flying either, with only one win in their last four league games and a recent cup exit at Newcastle. The Blues have only beaten Arsenal once in their last nine Premier League attempts, losing six of those games, with the Gunners winning on three of their last four trips to Stamford Bridge, as many victories as they had managed in their previous 20 visits combined.

As is often the case in matches involving these sides, the performances of Cole Palmer and Bukayo Saka are likely to prove key.

No player has more goal involvements than Palmer (12, with seven goals and five assists) this season, while he has also created the most chances from open play this term (24). Palmer scored his first ever Premier League goal at Stamford Bridge in this exact fixture last season, and from that point he has scored more home goals (21) than any other player.

Saka, meanwhile, has provided a league-leading seven assists and has either scored or assisted a goal for Arsenal in each of his last three away games against Chelsea in the Premier League.

Arsenal are given the most marginal edge at a 39.2% win probability, but that means the system is confident Chelsea can get at least something out of the game to extend the Gunners’ sticky patch, as the Blues’ victory chance is rated at 34.4% and the draw is at 26.4%.

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