By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-07-18 17:28:12 | Updated at 2026-08-02 19:52:10
2 weeks ago
England have scratched and clawed their way to the semi-finals of the FIFA World Cup for the second time in the last three tournaments. Standing between them and a place in the final are the reigning champions, Argentina.
Heading into the final week of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, England are still in with a chance of lifting the trophy for the first time since 1966.
Thomas Tuchel’s side have successfully overcome tricky tests against Mexico at the Estadio Azteca and an impressive Norway outfit, though they struggled against the likes of Panama and DR Congo.
Now, it is time for the Three Lions to face a true footballing giant: the reigning World Cup champions, Argentina. Lionel Scaloni’s team have enjoyed a good campaign in North America, but there are definitely weaknesses in their armour which can be exposed.
Here’s what England can do to make it to the World Cup final.
Argentina Won’t Press Well, But They Can Be Pressed
Off the ball, Argentina play a brand of football centred around accommodating Lionel Messi and his unwillingness or lack of mobility without the ball.
Argentina have made 31 high turnovers during the World Cup – defined as any sequence of open play where a team wins possession within 40 metres of the opponent’s goal. That total of 31 is the fewest of any team that made it to the quarter-finals.
What’s more, when they do execute a successful press, Argentina don’t often then convert it into danger. They’ve only had two shot-ending high turnovers in North America. For context, that’s the same number as an Iraq side that played half as many games as La Albiceleste have so far.
In periods where the game threatens to become slightly more transitional, something which England have struggled to cope with in 2026, Declan Rice and his midfield partners should be able to put their foot on the ball and reassert control over the game. Argentina’s opponents have taken just 37.7% of their touches under high pressure; only nine teams have put their opponents under high pressure less often when without the ball.
Additionally, Argentina’s backline has, at times, struggled to play out from the back under pressure. Only Paraguay have conceded more high turnovers than Scaloni’s men, who have lost the ball within 40 metres of their goal 48 times at the World Cup.
This should play well into England’s hands, who have been one of the most effective pressing teams at the World Cup. They have completed 42 high turnovers this tournament, the fourth-most of any team, and six of these high turnovers have led to shots.
Perhaps they could create another big opportunity in this fashion in Atlanta.
Argentina’s Deficiencies on the Flanks
Throughout the 2026 World Cup, one notable weakness of Argentina’s has been out wide in defence.
Their full-back options, including Nahuel Molina, Gonzalo Montiel, Facundo Medina and Nicolás Tagliafico, have often found themselves exposed defensively. As a result, a common pattern has emerged.
That pattern is Argentina’s opposition finding plenty of joy down the flanks, most notably their left-hand side. Of all the chances Argentina have conceded, 50.0% of them have come down their left, the second-highest proportion of any team at the tournament behind Australia.
A further 30.6% of the opposition’s chances have been generated down Argentina’s right, highlighting another area of potential weakness for England to attack.
Going forwards, England have attacked fairly evenly so far, with 37.7% of their attacks coming down the left, 31.1% through the middle, and 31.2% on the right.
If they are to exploit the Argentina defence, they may have to focus their attention in the wide areas.
With Argentina particularly vulnerable on England’s right side, it provides an opportunity for Noni Madueke or Bukayo Saka to put on a show.
Madueke has come in for some criticism for his performances so far, but he’s actually averaging more open-play expected assists per 90 (0.51) than anyone else at the World Cup (200+ minutes played). It’s time for someone to get on the end of his crosses into the box.
And Argentina’s defence is certainly penetrable – they have had their defensive line broken the most times of any semi-finalist (25). In fact, of the eight quarter-finalists, only Belgium (42) and Norway (38) saw their defensive line broken on more occasions.
This will suit England, who have played 53 defensive line-breaking passes, the second-most of any team across the tournament behind Spain (59), who have played one game more.
These instances for Argentina are almost entirely down the flanks, and England’s wide attackers will be licking their lips; this could be a real area of promise for the Three Lions as they look to book a World Cup final date with Spain.
Test Emi Martínez
Emiliano Martínez will be a familiar face for many in the England squad who have played with or against him in the Premier League.
These players will be well aware of Martínez’s mercurial talent – he could pull off a world-class save in one game and then potentially make an error next time out.
After starting the tournament well, picking up clean sheets against Algeria and Austria, Martínez’s form has dipped. Over the last few games, he has not quite looked his assured self.
His overall save percentage in North America is just 57.2%, a fair way off his save percentage in the Premier League during the 2025-26 season, 70.7%.
Furthermore, this percentage drops to 33.3% when looking at saves made from shots taken inside the box. Granted, those shots are going to be harder to save as they are closer to the goal, but only three keepers have a lower rate than Martínez in this respect.
Over Argentina’s six games so far, Martínez has faced shots on target worth 4.55 expected goals but conceded six goals, meaning he has prevented -1.45 goals. It’s worth noting that Jordan Pickford has prevented -2.74 goals, though, an even poorer record than Martínez.
England should not be afraid to test the Aston Villa goalkeeper. If Martínez has another off-day, Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham could run riot.
Argentina’s Unsustainable Results
According to the Opta Power Rankings, Argentina had the ‘easiest’ run to the semi-finals, with their opponents having an average Opta Power Rating of 71.4.
Despite this, Argentina’s journey has been far from a walk in the park. Scaloni’s men have made very hard work of things against teams they arguably should have been dominating, especially considering their own Opta Power Rating of 94.4 is the third-highest of any national team.
They scraped past all three of Cape Verde, Egypt and Switzerland, relying on last-gasp goals to get them over the line after largely unconvincing performances.
We should note that England haven’t exactly breezed through the tournament either. After finishing top of the group, they faced a scare against DR Congo in the round of 16, then eliminated co-hosts Mexico in a 3-2 thriller at the Azteca before coming from behind to beat an impressive Norway side 2-1.
It was Egypt who posed the biggest threat to Argentina’s World Cup status, almost pulling off one of the World Cup’s greatest ever shocks. The Pharaohs were two goals ahead with 12 minutes to go, at which point the Opta supercomputer gave Argentina just a 0.6% chance of winning the match in normal time.
With Lionel Messi on the pitch, La Albiceleste always have the ability to turn a game on its head, but their 2026 World Cup run has been unsustainable. You can only win in this dramatic fashion for so long, surely.
England are a significantly stronger test than anything Argentina have faced so far. They know they’ll have to be at their best to take down the defending champions, but there are definitely areas that they can exploit. Do that, and a World Cup final against Spain awaits.
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