PSG vs Liverpool Prediction

Paris Saint-Germain and Liverpool are cruising towards domestic titles, but a place in the Champions League quarter-finals is now on the line. Look ahead to the game at the Parc des Princes with our PSG vs Liverpool prediction and preview.

PSG vs Liverpool Stats: The Key Insights

• The Opta supercomputer makes PSG the slight favourites to win the first leg, but Liverpool are expected to progress from the tie.
• This will be just the third Champions League meeting between these teams.
• Liverpool have not won any of their last five away games against French sides in Europe.

Two of Europe’s form teams face off on Wednesday, as Paris Saint-Germain welcome Liverpool to the Parc des Princes for the first leg of a mouth-watering UEFA Champions League last-16 tie.

Both PSG and Liverpool are cruising towards titles in Ligue 1 and the Premier League respectively.

After hammering Lille 4-1 on Saturday, PSG are 13 points clear at the top of Ligue 1. Liverpool, meanwhile, had the weekend off after their shock FA Cup exit at the hands of Plymouth Argyle last month, but the Reds are sitting pretty at the top of English football, and are also 13 points clear in the Premier League.

This tie will also see two of Europe’s best attackers this season go head-to-head.

Mohamed Salah is surely a contender for the Ballon d’Or given his spectacular campaign. Liverpool are a fantastic team under Arne Slot, but Salah is their driving force – he already has a remarkable 52 goal contributions (30 goals, 22 assists) in all competitions this term.

Salah has been directly involved in 20 goals in 30 appearances in the knockout stages of the Champions League (12 goals, eight assists); the most by an African player in the competition’s history (one more than Samuel Eto’o and Didier Drogba).

For PSG, Ousmane Dembélé is filling the Kylian Mbappé-shaped void in their attack.

The former Barcelona winger might finally be living up to his potential – he has netted 26 goals across all competitions for PSG, adding six assists.

Salah has outperformed his 26.0 expected goals, scoring around four more goals than he would have been anticipated to based on the quality of chances that have come his way.

However, Dembele has managed to outperform his own 19.5 xG by 6.5, showing just how on point his finishing has been, as he has flourished whether coming off the right or playing in a central position.

Since the turn of the year, Dembele has been sensational. The France international is scoring 1.87 goals per 90 and providing 1.97 goal contributions per 90 in 2025, while averaging a goal every 48 minutes.

There is more to both of these teams, of course, than just these two star attackers.

Among full backs with 300+ minutes played in the Champions League this season, the two players averaging the most line-breaking passes per 90 are Liverpool pair Andy Robertson (16.6) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (13.9).

Meanwhile, PSG’s Achraf Hakimi leads all defenders in the Champions League this season for chances created (12) and assists (four) made while under high-intensity pressure from an opposition player. Indeed, his four such assists are the most of any player in the competition this term.

Hakimi’s fellow defender Marquinhos is also in for a milestone appearance in UEFA’s flagship club competition. The centre-back could make his 100th Champions League start, and would be just the fourth Brazilian player to achieve this landmark, after Roberto Carlos (120), Dani Alves (108) and Thiago Silva (100), as well as the first player to make 100 starts for a French club in the competition.

PSG had to get through the play-offs to reach the last 16, but Luis Enrique’s team are on a five-game winning streak in the Champions League, scoring 21 goals and only conceding three times in this run. They last won six in a row in the competition in the 1994-95 campaign, under Luis Fernandez (six).

Liverpool, on the other hand, finished top of the league phase, though they have lost each of their last three games in the knockout stages of the Champions League.

That said, all three of those were against Real Madrid (2021-22 final and home/away in 2022-23 last 16). Indeed, since the start of 2020-21, four of their five losses in the knockout stages of the competition have come against Los Blancos, with Inter (in March 2022) the only other side to beat them in that time.

PSG vs Liverpool vs Liverpool Head-to-Head

This will be just the third Champions League meeting between Liverpool and Paris Saint-Germain.

They previously played each other in the 2018-19 group stage, with the Reds winning 3-2 at home and losing 2-1 away, so there is an even head-to-head record as it stands.

This is the first time these teams will play each other in the knockout stages of a major European competition since meeting in the semi-final of the Cup Winners’ Cup in 1996-97, with PSG progressing to the final following a 3-2 aggregate victory.

Liverpool have not won any of their last five away games against French sides in Europe (D2 L3), with their last such victory coming at Marseille in September 2008 (2-1 in the Champions League).

However, Reds head coach Slot is unbeaten against French opposition in major European competition, winning two of his three matches and drawing the other. The most recent of those games was a 2-1 win over Lille in this season’s league phase.

PSG vs Liverpool Prediction

The Opta supercomputer has run 10,000 pre-match simulations, and PSG have come out on top in 40.5% of those.

Liverpool, though, are given a healthy 34.4% win probability, meaning there is a 25.1% chance of a draw – the supercomputer is anticipating a tightly contested first leg.

But when it comes to the overall likelihood of progressing from the tie, it is Liverpool who our model backs, giving the Reds a 58.3% probability of making the last eight. PSG’s chances are ranked at 41.7%.

Liverpool are the competition favourites overall, with their current chances of winning their seventh European crown coming in at 19.2%, with PSG’s likelihood of a maiden Champions League triumph being 9.5%.

PSG vs Liverpool Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday night, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

Paris Saint-Germain vs Liverpool Squads

PSG: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Matvey Safonov, Arnau Tenas, Achraf Hakimi, Presnel Kimpembe, Marquinhos, Lucas Hernández, Nuno Mendes, Lucas Beraldo, Yoram Zague, Willian Pacho, Fabián Ruiz, Désiré Doué, Vitinha, Lee Kang-in, Senny Mayulu, Warren Zaïre-Emery, João Neves, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Gonçalo Ramos, Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué, Bradley Barcola, Ibrahim Mbaye.

Head Coach: Luis Enrique

Liverpool: Alisson Becker, Caoimhín Kelleher, Joe Gomez, Virgil van Dijk, Ibrahima Konaté, Kostas Tsimikas, Andrew Robertson, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Jarell Quansah, Conor Bradley, Wataru Endo, Dominik Szoboszlai, Alexis Mac Allister, Curtis Jones, Harvey Elliott, Ryan Gravenberch, Tyler Morton, Trey Nyoni, Luis Díaz, Darwin Núñez, Mohamed Salah, Federico Chiesa, Cody Gakpo, Diogo Jota.

Head Coach: Arne Slot

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