PSG vs Man City Prediction

We look ahead to Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League game at the Parc des Princes with our PSG vs Man City prediction and preview. Can either side find a much-needed win to keep their qualifying hopes alive?

PSG vs Man City: The Key Insights

• Paris Saint-Germain are only slight favourites to win this with the Opta supercomputer at 39.2%, with a draw perhaps the most likely outcome (24.3%).
• PSG have won just one of their seven matches against Manchester City in European competition (D2 L4).
• Man City have lost their last two UEFA Champions League away matches, one fewer than in the 28 beforehand.

When the Champions League draw took place, most people might have thought this would be a top-of-the-table clash on Matchday 7, but the reality is a far cry from that, with both teams flirting with an early exit.

Coming into this round of games, Paris Saint-Germain sit outside the play-off places in 25th, with Manchester City just one point above them in 22nd, and that could change after Tuesday’s games to raise the stakes even further in this tie.

The last time City played in the Champions League, they were entrenched in their worst run of form under Pep Guardiola, with their 2-0 loss to Juventus further compounding their misery and extending their winless streak to three games in the competition.

In fact, they have lost their last two away matches in the competition, only one fewer than they had lost in their previous 28 away games (W16 D9 L3).

Only once have City lost more on the bounce, doing so between November 2011 and December 2012 under Roberto Mancini (four), another unwanted record Guardiola will hope to avoid this term.

It is no secret that their problems have stemmed from influential midfielder Rodri’s absence. Since 2019-20, City have lost just three out of 49 Champions League matches with the Spaniard in the team (6%, W35 D11), compared to four defeats in 14 games without him (29%, W7 D3).

But, City look to be finding their groove again now, going unbeaten in six matches in all competitions, including a 6-0 thrashing of Ipswich Town last time out in the Premier League.

PSG stand in the way of them extending that form into the Champions League though, with Luis Enrique’s side even more in need of points.

They do come into this game having won their last outing in Europe, beating Salzburg 3-0 on MD6, registering as many wins and goals in that match as they had across their previous seven games in the competition (W1 D2 L4).

PSG have not won consecutive games in the Champions League since last February (against Real Sociedad), but perhaps more worrying is their home form. They have lost three of their last five at the Parc des Princes in Europe’s premier competition (W1 D1), as many as in their previous 17 (W11 D3). Luis Enrique, meanwhile, is the only manager to lose as many as three games in the competition at the club.

The hosts are, however, on a 10-match unbeaten streak in all competitions, and with so much on the line on Wednesday, both teams have no choice but to go for the win.

Erling Haaland is set to lead Man City’s attack once again, and the Norwegian has found some goalscoring form once again. He’s scored four goals in his last four games for City after going four without a goal previously. He’s scored 46 goals in 45 UCL games overall, with his minutes-per-goal ratio of 78 the best of any player to have scored 15+ goals in the competition.

Phil Foden is another player in form for City, having scored five times in his last four appearances, including back-to-back braces against Brentford and Ipswich in his last two matches.

Bradley Barcola and Ousmane Dembélé pose the biggest threat in attack for PSG, with both players now on 16 goal involvements in all competitions this season. Barcola (12 goals) overtook Dembélé (11) as PSG’s top scorer this season following his winner in the 2-1 Ligue 1 victory over Lens at the weekend.

New signing Khvicha Kvaratskhelia will not feature for PSG in this one as only players registered prior to the start of this season’s Champions League can play in the league phase.

PSG vs Man City Head-to-Head

PSG have only won one of their seven matches against Man City in European competition (D2 L4). It is their lowest win percentage against a single opponent among teams they’ve faced more than five times in Europe (14%).

Yet, PSG won their last home match against City in the Champions League, despite attempting just six shots (2-0 in September 2021). This remains the fewest shots they’ve had on record (since 2003-04) in a home match in the competition.

This will be the fifth meeting between Luis Enrique and Pep Guardiola, with both winning two games each in the Champions League. However, along with Jürgen Klopp (2), Luis Enrique is one of only two managers to have beaten Guardiola by three or more goals on multiple occasions (3-0 in May 2015 and 4-0 in October 2016, both in charge of Barcelona).

PSG vs Man City Prediction

This one is almost too close to call for the Opta supercomputer, with only a point separating the teams in the table. There is a 24.3% chance of this game ending in a draw – a result that, at this stage, would be no good to either team.

PSG are given a slight edge with 39.2% in front of their own fans at the Parc des Princes, but City are still in with a chance as they come out on top in 36.5% of the simulations.

PSG vs Man City Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday night, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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