By Opta Analyst | Created at 2025-03-03 14:44:18 | Updated at 2025-03-03 20:58:26
6 hours ago
Arsenal will look to recover their faltering form as they head to the Netherlands to continue their Champions League campaign. Look ahead to the game at the Philips Stadion with our PSV vs Arsenal prediction and preview.
PSV vs Arsenal Stats: The Key Insights
- Arsenal are firm favourites ahead of Tuesday night, winning 44.6% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations.
- This will be the second time Arsenal have faced PSV in the knockout stages of the Champions League, after being eliminated by the Dutch side in the last 16 in 2006-07.
- Arsenal have averaged the lowest xG against per game of any team in the Champions League this season, and have conceded fewer shots on target than any other team in the competition.
After flying through the Champions League group stage, Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal will travel to the Netherlands to begin their knockout campaign, facing PSV Eindhoven at the Philips Stadion.
Arsenal have won each of their last four Champions League matches, scoring 13 goals and conceding just twice in wins over Sporting CP, Monaco, Dinamo Zagreb, and Girona. A win on Tuesday night would take the run to five, a streak they last achieved in 2005-06 as they registered their best-ever finish in the competition (runners-up).
Historically, Arsenal have a particularly strong record against Dutch sides. They are undefeated against Peter Bosz’s PSV, taking a 4-0 home win and 1-1 away draw from the 2023-24 Champions League group stage, and have lost just one of their last 14 Champions League matches against Dutch opposition, a 1-0 loss to PSV in 2007. However, more than half of those matches have ended in a draw (W5 D8 L1).
Although the Gunners don’t tend to struggle at home to PSV, going unbeaten against the Dutch side in five matches at the Emirates (W3 D2), their away record tells a different story. They are winless in their last four away to PSV (D2 L2), their only win coming in September 2002 (4-0 in the UCL).
PSV also knocked Arsenal out of the Champions League round of 16 in 2006-07, winning 1-0 at home and drawing 1-1 at the Emirates, a feat they will hope to replicate in this tie.
The match may be decided by the quality of either side’s defence. PSV have established themselves as one of the competition’s most aggressive pressers, allowing their opponents just nine passes per defensive action (PPDA) in the Champions League. Only Bayern Munich allow fewer (a PPDA of 8.2).
The high press has tangible benefits for PSV. Only Paris Saint Germain (30) have produced more shots following high turnovers than Bosz’s side this season (25).
Arsenal’s defence in the Champions League has been stalwart. Inter Milan (1) are the only team to have conceded fewer goals than the Gunners (3), but it is Arteta’s side who have conceded the lowest xG against per game (0.73) in the tournament.
They also concede the fewest shots on target per game (2.4) and have kept a clean sheet in 63% of their matches in the campaign. That clean sheet rate is the second best they have managed in the Champions League, second only to the 2005-06 season (77% – 10/13).
Arsenal have made a habit this season of taking early leads and maintaining them, holding the lead in 57% of their minutes played. No side has spent more time in front. Conversely, the Gunners have spent just 65 of 770 minutes played trailing their opposition this term (8%).
Tuesday’s clash will present two players with the opportunity for landmark appearances. At 17 years and 348 days old, Hale End starlet Ethan Nwaneri could become the second-youngest Arsenal player to appear in a Champions League knockout stage game. Cesc Fàbregas was 39 days younger when he faced Bayern Munich in March 2005 (17y 309d).
Should he appear, he will become just the third Englishman to start a knockout game in the competition before his 18th birthday after Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden, who lifted the trophy with Manchester City in 2023.
In the PSV camp, Luuk de Jong could make his 50th Champions League appearance. He would become just the fifth Dutch striker to reach the milestone after Ruud van Nistelrooy (73), Patrick Kluivert (71), Roy Makaay (61) and Robin van Persie, who made 52 of his 59 appearances in the competition in an Arsenal shirt.
While Arsenal had a weekend off due to their elimination from the FA Cup earlier this year, PSV lost 3-2 away at Go Ahead Eagles in the Eredivisie. That was their second defeat inside four days to Go Ahead Eagles, following another loss in the KNVB Cup semi-final last midweek (2-1). The Dutch side haven’t suffered three successive defeats in all competitions in 11 years, last doing so in March 2014.
Arsenal will be without Kai Havertz on Tuesday night after the German forward had surgery on a torn hamstring. Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka are both expected to return from their respective hamstring injuries in March, but are unlikely the be fit in time for this match.
January saw PSV suffer injuries to key midfielder Malik Tillman and striker Ricardo Pepi, who had scored 29 goals and assisted seven between them in all competitions this season. Both will be missing for this match.
PSV vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
Arsenal played PSV twice in the Champions League group stage last season, winning 4-0 at home before drawing 1-1 away. That away draw is one of four successive winless trips to the Philips Stadion for Arsenal, losing two and drawing the other.
One of those away defeats, in February 2007, contributed towards a shock exit from the 2006-07 Champions League at the last-16 stage. They lost 1-0 in Eindhoven before drawing 1-1 at the Emirates Stadium two weeks later to be eliminated.
That defeat is the only loss for Arsenal across 14 games versus Dutch sides in the Champions League.
PSV vs Arsenal Prediction
Despite their form wavering slightly in recent weeks, the Opta supercomputer is predicting an Arsenal win in Eindhoven, the London club coming out on top on 44.6% of pre-match simulations.
A win for the hosts is considered to be about as likely as a draw. Bosz’s side won out in 28.7% of simulations, with a draw coming in at 26.8%.
PSV vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
