Rafael hurricane tracker reveals storm's chances of hitting US after it barreled over Cuba

Meteorologists are tracking Hurricane Rafael's potential path toward the US after the storm barreled into Cuba as a Category 3.

Rafael is now moving into the Gulf of Mexico, but has since weakened into a Category 2 and is expected to continue losing strength as it encounters progressively cooler waters and change in wind speed.

The probability of it making landfall in the US is 'extremely low,' but residents of the Gulf Coast should still monitor the forecast for updates, AccuWeather reported.

The most likely scenario is that a mid-level ridge - or an area of high pressure - pushes Rafael westward across the Gulf of Mexico by Saturday, moving it away from the US and toward Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). 

Experts do not expect Rafael to make landfall in Florida, but the lower Florida Keys may see fringe impacts, including storm surge and coastal flooding. 

Water levels could rise about a foot higher than recent high tides, and the lower Florida Keys could see storm surge of one to two feet, the NHC stated. 

Across the Gulf of Mexico, swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, spreading east to west this week into the weekend, the agency added. 

AccuWeather meteorologists say that the southern Atlantic coast could see heavy rain and potentially flash flooding into the weekend. 

A spaghetti model - so-called because it resembles strands of pasta - showed that Rafael has six potential paths to the US. But experts say that none of these are as likely as the storm tracking west toward Mexico.

AccuWeather meteorologists, however, said that it's still 'too early to give the all-clear on tropical impacts along the Gulf Coast.' 

That's because steering breezes may change slightly later this week and this weekend due to the approach of a non-tropical storm from the south-central US, they explained. 

'It is also possible Rafael is torn apart by strong winds high in the atmosphere and dissipates in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall,' AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bill Deger said. 

Hurricane Rafael hit Cuba as a Category 3 storm at 4:15pm ET Wednesday in the province of Artemisa, with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, according to AccuWeather.

The storm drenched western Cuba with heavy rain and delivered winds so powerful that it knocked out the entire country's power grid. 

The Associated Press reported that the Havana coastline weathered massive waves, intense wind gusts and downpours. By Wednesday evening, streets were flooded and fallen trees littered the ground. 

As of roughly 10:00am ET Thursday, Rafael was located roughly 186 miles west of Key West, Florida and moving west-northwest at nine mph, according to the NHC. 

The Category 2 storm had maximum sustained winds of 100 mph at that time, having weakened at it moved across Cuba. 

As Rafael's threat to the US dissipates, hurricane trackers are keeping their eye on another storm system northeast of the Leeward Islands. 

This area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, according to the NHC. 

The agency stated that gradual development of this system is possible over the next couple of days as it moves westward near the Greater Antilles.

But the chance that it could become a hurricane is low at just 20 percent over the next 48 hours and the next seven days.  

Even if it does not develop, this system could bring heavy rains the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas through Saturday, the NHC reported.

Rafael is the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. 

Though it is not expected to directly impact Florida, fringe storm impacts could put added strain on coastal communities still reeling from hurricanes Helene and Milton, which ravaged the state within two weeks of each other. 

These storms caused widespread damage in the Sunshine State, killing an estimated combined total of 54 people. 

According to the Office of Insurance Regulation, estimated insurance claims as a result of both Helene and Milton have exceeded $4 billion in Florida.