Redistricting has given GOP unexpected midterm advantage. But can they win?

The mid-decade redistricting war that began in Texas has settled down — for now.

Given the Supreme Court’s green light to political gerrymandering, there are plenty of dominoes yet to fall — but both sides are now dug in for this fall’s 2026 House midterms, and the contest has taken clear shape.

Will Republicans be able to keep their narrow majority, and the White-House-friendly agenda control that goes with it?

Or will Democrats take advantage of the president’s poor approval ratings and grab the ability to subpoena his administration?

If this were a normal midterm election, Democrats regaining control of the House would be almost a foregone conclusion.

Republicans currently hold just 218 out of 435 seats; additionally, independent Rep. Kevin Kiley of California caucuses with his former party.

There are four vacancies, formerly filled by one Republican and three Democrats.

In other words, Republicans’ current majority is about as slim as can be, such that if Democrats flip even a handful of seats, they will elect the next Speaker.

Democrats are justifiably bullish about their prospects: the president’s party almost always loses seats in midterm elections.

In the 19 held since the end of WWII, the out-party has gained an average of 24 seats. In just two of these years — 1998 and 2002 — did the president’s party eke out a modest gain.

Republicans’ gerrymandering spoils give them a somewhat better chance than in a normal cycle, though.

Likely GOP gains include five seats in Texas, four in Florida, one or two in Ohio, and one each in Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Alabama.

That’s offset by likely Democratic gains of five seats in California and one in Utah (where a court-ordered redraw created a district centered on Salt Lake City).

It appeared that a new, referendum-approved map in Virginia would get Democrats four more seats, but the state’s Supreme Court said that procedural irregularities made the move constitutionally invalid.

Meanwhile, Democrats’ attempt to pick off Republicans’ one member from New York City, Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, fizzled in appeals after initial lower-court success.

Sum it all up, and Republicans will gain something like 10 “safe” or “leaning GOP” seats, perhaps slightly less if some of their assumptions in drawing new districts were too optimistic.

That makes it much easier to imagine them holding on to the majority — by a thread.

To do it, they’ll need to win some races in the dwindling number of genuinely competitive districts.

Some of the most notable races feature GOP freshmen who won close seats to help their party take the majority in 2024: Gabe Evans of Colorado; Tom Barrett of Michigan; and Ryan Mackenzie and Rob Bresnahan of Pennsylvania.

Barrett, a veteran who won the central Michigan seat formerly held by Elissa Slotkin, has recently distinguished himself by pushing a resolution to wind down US involvement in Iran, very much against his party’s wishes.

Such attempts may help achieve meaningful differentiation in certain districts.

Other close seats that Republicans took control of in 2022 will also be key battlegrounds.

New Jersey’s 7th District, in the northwest of the state, has been represented by Thomas Kean, Jr. since that Biden-presidency midterm. The incumbent has taken a tough race and made it harder by absenting himself (for mysterious medical reasons) for the last few months.

Another 2022 entrant, Rep. Derrick Van Orden, has a tough rematch defending a modestly Trump-friendly district in western Wisconsin.

Republican retirements from the House, currently numbering 36, make defending the majority harder — and indicate that members themselves want to avoid a likely trip into the minority.

Rep. David Schweikert, one of Congress’ most serious deficit hawks, is leaving his seat in northeastern Phoenix to run for governor.

Rep. Don Bacon, Ukraine’s most tireless champion, is giving up his Omaha, Nebraska seat for uncertain political prospects.

Both districts will be hard for Republicans to hold.

How much does control of the House really matter right now? The lower chamber lacks the Senate’s confirmation power, meaning that the president can do a great deal without bothering with it.

The House’s power to impeach looks rather tired out these days, although the subpoena power that committee chairs wield still packs a punch.

Most important, the power of the purse still runs through the House, and Trump will still need to pass funding bills and military authorizations.

A Democratic House majority would use its leverage to force action on some of their priorities and insist on statutory checks on the president’s power.

Republicans will do everything they can between now and November to deny them the chance.

Philip Wallach is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.