Reform UK targets NINE electoral victories TODAY in nightmare for Starmer - but can Farage capitalise?

It comes as multiple other pollsters gave Reform a national lead, including Find Out Now (five-point lead over Labour), YouGov (one point lead over Labour) and Techne UK (one point lead over Labour).

Now the anti-immigration party has a wave of council by-elections, important bell weather events, to try and capitalise on their rampant polling.

Farage has been flying high in recent UK wide polls

NIGEL FARAGE

Elections are due in Canterbury, Hounslow, Barnet, Pendle, Eastleigh, and Llanddarog. While polling for individual wards is unavailable, projections are available for the wider constituencies the ward falls within.

The Nowcast model, which aggregates recent UK wide polling and weights it for historic pollster accuracy and recency, shows Reform is in with a real chance of causing multiple upsets.

Vivary Bridge - Pendle

Reform’s best chance of a victory comes in the Vivary Bridge ward near Colne in Lancashire which the Tories are defending.

The wider constituency of Pendle and Clitheroe has historically been a swing seat between the two establishment parties, but Reform has eaten away their lead emphatically.

The Nowcast model is putting the ‘disruptor party’ on 28.7 per cent, just behind the Tories on 29.2 per cent and Labour on 25 per cent.

Reform candidate Nathan Thomas McCollum came a close fourth in Burnley in the General Election.

Projection: Pendle and Clitheroe

Projection: Pendle and Clitheroe

ElectionMapsUK

Llanddarog - Carmarthenshire

One of Reform’s better chances comes in Plaid Cymru’s west Wales ward of Llanddarog which falls in Caerfyrddin constituency (Carmarthenshire).

The ward was won emphatically by Plaid who scooped 84 per cent of the vote last time out.

The wider seat was won by Plaid Cymru over Labour by 4,535 votes in July 2024, but Labour is not standing a candidate in this by-election.

While Plaid Cymru is projected to hold the wider seat with 31 per cent of the vote, Reform is closing in fast on 25.4 per cent (up 10.2 per cent).

Wales is a dominant area for Reform and the party has form causing upsets. A few weeks ago, Farage’s Army won a seat in Torfaen, a deep labour area that had never voted for another party in over 100 years.

Local farmer Bernard Holton is standing for Reform after coming fourth in the General Election.

Projection: Caerfyrddin

Projection: Caerfyrddin

ElectionMapsUK

Gorrell / Herne and Broomfield / St Stephen’s - Canterbury

Three more difficult chances for Reform come in wards across Canterbury, historically a Conservative constituency but one that has been Labour since Rosie Duffield triumphed in 2017.

The Greens are defending Gorrell, the Conservatives Herne and Broomfield while Labour hold St Stephens.

The Nowcast model is projecting Labour to hold the wider seat but with a slashed majority.

Reform is in second with 23.3 per cent of the vote, some way behind Labour’s 32.8 per cent.

The best chance for Reform comes in Herne and Broomfield. The Tories won the ward in 2023 with 40 per cent of the vote, so the result will come down to how much of their base deserts to Farage.

Projection: Canterbury

Projection: Canterbury

ElectionMapsUK

Brentford East / Syon and Brentford Lock - Hounslow

Two longshots for Reform come in west London area of Hounslow where the wards of Brentford East and Syon and Brentford Lock are for election.

Both wards were won fairly comfortably by Labour in 2022 but, with Starmer tanking the party’s popularity, an upset is possible.

Looking at the wider constituency of Brentford and Isleworth (historically red and won by Labour by 9,824 votes in July 2024), the Nowcast model Reform and the Tories on 18.3 per cent and 21.4 per cent respectively.

Labour’s 32.3 per cent represents a drop of 11.9 per cent, damaging but probably survivable for the upcoming by-elections.

Projection: Brentford and Isleworth

Projection: Brentford and Isleworth

ElectionMapsUK

Hamble and Netley - Eastleigh

Reform UK is contesting the election for the Lib Dem ward of Hamble and Netley, but it is a tough ask.

The Lib Dems took a massive 59 per cent of the vote in 2024 and the ward falls within the wider constituency of Eastleigh, historically a Lib Dem/Tory swing seat.

The Lib Dems took it in July 2024 by 1,546 votes with Reform a distant fourth.

The Nowcast model is projecting things stay that way with the Lib Dems set to scoop 32.8 per cent, the Tories 27.7 per cent and Reform third with 22.3 per cent.

Projection: Eastleigh

Projection: Eastleigh

ElectionMapsUK

Projection: Finchley and Golders Green

Projection: Finchley and Golders Green

ElectionMapsUK

It comes as Labour continues to be punished at council by-elections since the July General Elections.

Starmer’s party has suffered a net loss of 34 seats in that time period, while the Conservatives are up 24 seats.

For all their dominant UK wide polling, Reform has only won 12 seats (up 12), inviting criticism that they shout the loudest but aren’t producing results.

However, defenders of Reform argue the party has only just professionalised and began from a standing start in terms of candidate recruitment, vetting, membership lists etc.

Reform will be chomping at the bit to record some more electoral victories and prove they are a force to be reckoned with to the establishment parties.

Major council elections are due across England in May, though Labour has allowed nine authorities to postpone elections in a shakeup of local government.

The next General Election is due in 2029.