Republican Senate challengers lag well behind Trump in public polls

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and NRSC Chair Steve Daines are grappling with an uncomfortable reality: Republican Senate challengers are lagging well behind former President Trump in public surveys.

Why it matters: The polling gap has baffled Republican candidates and strategists, who expected it to collapse as November neared.

• Its persistence is a warning for the Republican high command that a close Trump victory in any given swing state doesn't guarantee a GOP Senate seat — even if it also signals a bloc of still-persuadable voters.
• It could herald the return of something McConnell and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer have seen vanish in the last two presidential races: The split-ticket voter.

Between the lines: There are several theories about why Senate Republicans lag behind their presidential candidate, including a lack of name ID and getting outspent.

• Then there's the Trump factor. The former president appeals to many nontraditional Republicans and former working-class Democrats.
• Trump is "outperforming other Republicans because his base is broader than the traditional GOP coalition," Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) told Axios.
• "Republicans should follow his lead to make our entire party stronger after November and cement the GOP as the party of the working class," Banks, who is running for Senate, said.

Zoom in: In contested elections, the gap is most pronounced in Ohio. Trump is running 8.7 percentage points ahead of GOP Senate nominee Bernie Moreno, according to RealClearPolitics averages.

• The narrowest margin is in Wisconsin, where Trump is polling ahead of Eric Hovde by 2.2 percentage points. Both candidates are under 50%.
• One notable exception: Former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) is running nearly 10 points ahead of Trump in the deep blue state of Maryland. Hogan hasn't been shy about distancing himself from Trump and even rejected his endorsement.

The other side: On the Democratic side, the trend is reversed, but the margins are much smaller.

• In four of the five battleground states that also have a tight Senate race, Vice President Kamala Harris trails her party's candidate by one or two points — and sometimes less. In Michigan, she's running a point ahead of Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.).
• President Biden was lagging behind his party's Senate candidates by bigger percentages before dropping out, but Harris has nearly erased the gap.

What they're saying: "Democrat incumbents have maxed out their name ID and Democrat vote share, which is why they are matching Kamala Harris' ballot numbers," NRSC spokesperson Mike Berg told Axios.

• "We are already seeing positive movement in our polls, and we expect continued positive movement over the next five weeks," he added.
• DSCC spokesperson David Bergstein told us: "Senate Republicans have a roster of deeply flawed candidates and their lies, scandals and baggage repel voters of every political persuasion, including many Republicans."

The bottom line: Trump can still win the presidency — and Republicans feel confident about taking Montana to get to 51 in the Senate. But the former president might be forced to govern with the barest of Senate majorities.