Republicans outpacing Dems in early voting in this battleground state: data

(The Center Square) — Republicans may be eclipsing Democrats in early in-person voting this year in Virginia, though Democrats appear to be outperforming Republicans in submitting mail-in ballots, according to data compiled by the nonprofit Virginia Public Access Project.

Just two weeks out from the presidential election, Republicans are likely to have cast 46.5% of early in-person ballots, while Democrats likely account for 45.5%.

Since Virginia “does not require voter registration by party, and ballots are not counted until election day,” the project uses voter IDs from the Virginia Daily Absentee List and data from a political data firm to make its estimations.

The likely party for 8% of the ballots was unknown.

People voting early in Arlington, Virginia on Sept. 20, 2024. JIM LO SCALZO/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

Democrats have likely submitted 63.6% of mail-in ballots, while Republicans have submitted just 25.8%, and party affiliation for 10.6% is unknown.

As Virginia holds elections every year, the project has tracked the share of early in-person and mail-in ballots by party since 2021, and this presidential election year is the first in which Republicans may have outpaced Democrats at the ballot box thus far. 

Sixteen days out from the election in 2021 and 2022, Democrats comprised just over 60% of early in-person ballots and Republicans about 30%.

According to the Virginia Public Access Project, Republicans have cast 46.5% of early in-person ballots, while Democrats account for 45.5%. Photo by -/AFP via Getty Images

In 2023, Republicans accounted for closer to 40% of early in-person ballots, but Democrats still beat them to the polls by a margin of more than 15%, casting 55.4% of early-in-person ballots.

Mail-in voting numbers haven’t changed much since 2021.

Democrats continually submit close to 65% of mail-in ballots by this time each year, while Republicans submit 20-25%.

This year, Republican mail-in ballots account for slightly less than last year, at 25.8% to 2023’s 26.4%