ROOKE: Everyone’s Pointing Fingers On Democratic Party Side After Shock Defeat. But Republican’s Results Tell Different Story

Tuesday’s Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary produced a narrow victory for Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, but the focus should be on the GOP.

Democrats and pundits have been focused on Crowley defeating Democratic socialist state Rep. Francesca Hong, and for good reason. It was an intra-party battle between the establishment pick (Crowley) and the far-left’s candidate (Hong). This is a fight voters have watched play out race after race, but it marks the first such battle in a true battleground state. A lot will be said about the less-than-one-point difference between the two candidates and the future for the Democratic Party.

Still, it’s the Republican side that is the most interesting. Republican Wisconsin Rep. Tom Tiffany blew his opponent Andy Manske out of the water, garnering over 95 percent of the vote. Some have warned that because Democrats cast roughly 788,000 votes in their primary versus Republicans’ 490,000, this discrepancy shows a momentum problem for the GOP going into the general election.

It’s easy to assume that when you see Democrats outnumber Republicans by roughly 300,000 ballots, that by itself signals general election weakness. But many factors went into creating that environment, and it’s not necessarily indicative of general election woes.

Tiffany faced minimal opposition after receiving President Donald Trump’s endorsement. His near-unanimous result reflected the absence of a serious intra-party challenge. Tiffany’s race drew limited attention compared with the Democratic primary, especially as national far-left activists like livestreamer Hasan Piker entered the fight in support of Hong. (Sign up for Mary Rooke’s weekly newsletter here!)

Additionally, primary electorates also differ demographically and ideologically from general electorates. These voters are typically older, more partisan, and more intense than those who are only active during general elections. If Republicans had a high-profile election going on, like what happened in the Texas GOP primary race for U.S. Senate, one would expect to see high participation rates. A primary with little fanfare is going to provide a low turnout.

All of these almost guarantee a lower Republican primary turnout than Democrats and are more indicative of historical norms than something to sound the alarm over. This doesn’t mean that Republicans shouldn’t be worried about the November general election. These results arrived at a moment when national discussion focuses on Republican vulnerabilities in the 2026 midterms.

Tiffany will face Crowley in November. Early general election polling showed a tight gubernatorial race regardless of the Democratic nominee. Matchups involving Crowley or Hong against Tiffany typically fell within a few points, with some surveys giving Crowley a slight edge and others showing Tiffany ahead. The race was rated a toss-up by major forecasters, although Sabato’s Crystal Ball has changed the race to lean Democratic.

The uncontested Republican primary leaves Tiffany without the mobilization boost a competitive race can provide, but it also avoids internal divisions. Primary turnout disparities will not automatically transfer to voter enthusiasm gaps for Tiffany.

Still, every GOP race, including Tiffany’s, is being run against the backdrop of Trump’s approval ratings sitting in the mid-30s, producing a net approval near negative 20. Most of this is caused by negative economic perceptions driven by prolonged, elevated inflation and cost-of-living pressures.

Republicans could have avoided what is expected to happen in November if the Iran War had never happened, but there is no way to turn back time. And as it stands, Democrats hold leads of 6 to 8 points over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot in recent aggregates, which will affect all GOP candidates running for office.

These perceptions align with historical midterm patterns. The president’s party has lost House seats in the large majority of midterms since the 1930s. Losses tend to be larger when presidential approval falls below 50 percent and when economic dissatisfaction is elevated. Republicans are currently facing both.

Wisconsin’s primary does not contradict this national picture. Still, the higher Democratic voter participation was more likely a reflection of the competitive party primary than it was an indicator of an enthusiasm gap that will nonetheless exist. This is one of those rare instances where something looking like a duck and quacking like a duck doesn’t make it a duck. (ROOKE: Socialism Is So Hot Right Now. But One Candidate Seems Too Toxic For Even Them)

At this point, sustained economic dissatisfaction remains a clearer signal of midterm risk for Republicans than primary voter turnout.

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