Rúben Amorim at Man United: Predicting his team, formation, transfers

Rúben Amorim has received so much coverage since being linked to the Manchester United job that most people know the manager has mostly played a 3-4-2-1 formation throughout his career. Given that presumably Manchester United have done their homework on him, this raises the question of how the players in the current United squad might fit that system -- a scheme United haven't really used except in one-off situations.

Of course, the club can turn to the transfer market and acquire players that fit a 3-4-2-1 formation, or who they think are simply better than the ones already there. But after racking up losses in excess of £255 million ($320m) in the past three seasons, they are walking a fine line in terms of both the Premier League's Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) and UEFA's equivalent guidelines on Financial Sustainability. They'll have some sort of budget and will save some money if they don't extend the expiring contracts of Christian Eriksen, Victor Lindelöf and Harry Maguire, but we don't expect a massive net spend over the next 12 months.

What does this mean? For a start, United will need to be especially clever with their spending. Unlike previous managers, Amorim won't be the driving force, instead working with sporting director Dan Ashworth, technical director Jason Wilcox and chief executive Omar Berrada to find the players he needs. The rest of the 2024-25 campaign will necessarily be devoted to this task: figuring who fits where and how, where they need to add, and who they might want to shift to free up resources.

Yet this can't be devoted solely to rebuilding for the future. Amorim has to deliver results now, too; partly to build confidence with players and fans, partly to ensure United do not take a further hit in terms of prestige and revenue by missing out on the Champions League. In other words, he's going to have to do his experiments on the fly, which is a tall order.

The good news? For all the negativity surrounding United under Erik Ten Hag, they're not that badly placed in the table. Yes, sitting 13th is rather embarrassing, but they're also just four points out of third place, with 27 games to go. Not an insurmountable obstacle.

The playing system

Both Gab and Mark think 3-4-2-1 will be the preferred system in the medium-term, though Gab isn't so sure he can implement it straight away.

"He has to deliver results too; he can't treat the rest of the season as one long preseason for next year," he says. "We may see something closer to a 4-2-3-1 or 4-1-4-1, which isn't much different to what was there under Louis van Gaal, but with concepts that are more tied to the 3-4-2-1 he wants to play."

Mark feels more confident that it will be a 3-4-2-1 formation from the start.

"Amorim has already said that this will be his team from day one and that his players will have to fit his system rather than the other way around," said Mark. "He has enough centre-halves who can play in a back three, but I think his biggest problem initially will be legs in the heart of midfield. There is no box-to-box energy there, so he might need to be creative. My hunch is that he will start with what he knows, but then quickly become more pragmatic when he realises how imbalanced his squad is."

Addressing the central defensive options

Amorim's teams have generally featured a ball-playing goalkeeper, in some cases one who comes right out to help build from the back and break the press. We likely won't see that -- at least not early on -- at United, but in André Onana they have somebody very comfortable on the ball.

As for the back three, on paper at least it's easy to imagine Lisandro Martínez on the left, Matthijs de Ligt in the middle and Leny Yoro (currently injured) on the right, but there are several reasons to be cautious. Amorim has tended to use outside central defenders who are good at progressing the ball into midfield and comfortable defending in wide areas when necessary. On the left, Martínez is a fit in many ways. Luke Shaw, when (if?) healthy, might be an alternative.

Centrally, Gab is fine with De Ligt: "He's a defensive leader, he's a good passer, he can step up and act as an additional holding midfielder which sometimes is required in Amorim's system. And you don't want him out in wide areas against wingers."

Mark, however, is skeptical: "I don't think De Ligt and Martínez play well together, they're both too rash and they attack the same balls. You need a blend to make it work. I don't think De Ligt is great on the ball and he's slow. De Ligt and Martínez also get dragged out of position way too often."

Amorim's problem is that Maguire, Jonny Evans and Lindelöf are all out of contract next summer, so can he back one of those ahead of De Ligt? Evans is 36, but he's been United's most consistent defender since he returned to the club at the start of last season. His calmness and experience could bring some order to a back three, but imagine the message it would send if Amorim picked Evans over more expensive and younger defenders. Still, he successfully went with the age and experience of Sebastián Coates at Sporting, so why not?

Yoro is the long-term choice on the right, and a good fit in the sense that he's athletic and comfortable not he ball. On the other hand, as Gab points out: "Yoro only turned 19 this month and has been sidelined for six months. He has a season-and-a-half as a starter under his belt but that was in a back four.

"I think it's a huge ask to expect him to instantly start in a new system, at a new club, and think he'll hit the ground running. If he does, great, but I'm not sure it's going to be automatic that he gets thrown in at the deep end straight away."

Mark agrees Yoro might need a bedding-in period: "Yoro needs time and patience, but while he will have been frustrated at missing this season so far due to injury, it's done him a favour because it means his confidence hasn't been wrecked by playing in [former manager] Erik ten Hag's back four."

If he does have a spell of assimilating to the first team, there are few convincing alternatives. Gab suggests one option (until Yoro is ready) might be Diogo Dalot, given the types of outside centre-backs Amorim has used before. Mark reckons Lindelöf is more likely, given that Amorim will want to be more conservative in his first few outings.

"Dalot's defensive qualities are limited. He's basically a frustrated winger. So while Lindelöf isn't, and never has been, good enough for United, he'd be a better option in a back three than Dalot."

Who can be a wing-back?

On paper, United have two competent attacking full-backs who can be deployed as wing-backs in Dalot and Mazraoui. Mark thinks they're the obvious initial choices for the wide areas. Longer term, Shaw's return might make him a candidate on the left, but there's also Harry Amass, who did very well in preseason, but is only 17 and didn't play at all under Ten Hag.

Gab isn't so sure.

"At Sporting, the wing-backs are the main source of width, since the two behind the forward operate centrally. They're counted on to deliver crosses and the issue here is that both Mazraoui and Dalot are right-footed. I think you need a left-footer on the left. We're not talking about inverted wingers here; his wing-backs are designed to deliver crosses. Then there's the fact that his wing-backs aren't quite symmetrical in how they work. This year, he's played Geovany Quenda, who is really a winger, very attacking and dynamic out wide.

"I wouldn't discount the possibility of converting one of United's wingers into that role, perhaps on the left. And if he needs a left-footer in that role, you're looking at Amad Diallo or the reclamation project otherwise known as Antony."

Mark discounts the notion of turning one of the current crop of wingers into a wing-back. "I agree that Dalot and Mazraoui are by no means perfect options, but none of the wingers are either as none of them are good enough defensively. Marcus Rashford? Doesn't work hard enough. Alejandro Garnacho? He's a kid and defensively suspect, which is understandable given his age and attacking instinct.

"Amad Diallo? Again, he's a winger, not a defender. Antony? Forget it. So no. Maybe Mason Mount on the right could put in a shift. But that's it."

"I take all on that on board, but this is the issue I have," says Gab. "You have four wingers. If you're going to play 3-4-2-1 and you're going to be hardline about putting defenders at wing-back, then there's only two spots left for them in the lineup, as one of the No. 10s behind the striker. And if Bruno Fernandes plays there, it's only one spot for four guys -- five if you count Mount. I'm not sure Amorim would have taken the job without having some sort of plan for them and at least trying to reinvent them."

Mark adds: "And this is the problem, one of many that Amorim will encounter. His system needs round pegs, but he only has square ones."

The issues in central midfield

Amorim's two in front of the back four generally include a more defensive option and a guy who will make forward runs. Maybe the best example here is from this first title winning side, in 2021-22, when he had João Palhinha (now at Bayern Munich) playing alongside Matheus Nunes (now at Manchester City). Palhinha's replacement was Manuel Ugarte who, of course, is now at United, so he seems an obvious candidate for that role.

Who gets the other slot? Gab would go with Kobbie Mainoo when he returns from injury. He may not have the dynamism that Amorim craves, but he has quality and can make up for it in other ways.

Mark is decidedly more negative. "His midfielders at Sporting have lots of dynamism. Morten Hjulmand, Daniel Bragança and Hidemasa Morita all cover loads of ground and have big energy. United don't have players like that. Casemiro, Mainoo, Ugarte aren't athletic; they can't run. Mainoo is a real talent, no question about that, but he can't be what he isn't. He's a creator and a tempo-setter, but he isn't box-to-box.

"Overall, there's a lack of drive in the middle," says Mark. "There's no pace in this midfield, and I don't know how he addresses that without signing someone."

Short-term, we agree he'll go with Ugarte and either Mainoo or Casemiro.

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Fixing things up front

Amorim likes his No. 9 to be athletic, unselfish, strong and prolific -- just like his centre-forward at Sporting, Viktor Gyökeres. Rasmus Højlund ticks many of those boxes, is still just 21 and will be given every chance to win the job given the club's huge investment in him. Joshua Zirkzee is the alternative: again, a youngish player (23) and certainly more unorthodox than Højlund, but given he only just arrived, you assume he's not going anywhere.

Bruno Fernandes is United's current No.10 and arguably their best player. He has also recently signed a new deal through 2027, which means he's not going anywhere. On paper, he has one of the two attacking midfield positions locked up, with the other up for grabs and again, on paper, the other role will go to one of United's displaced wingers.

We don't think Amorim is quite as dogmatic here. At Sporting, his No. 10s are Pedro Gonçalves, who is more of a second forward/attacking midfielder type (though more dynamic than Bruno Fernandes), and Francisco Trincão, who spent much of his career as an inverted winger. Both do a lot of work off the ball and act as an effective first line of defence.

"Amorim has to start with Rashford and give him a chance, there's a player there," says Mark. "But of course, if you put him and Bruno there and ask them to press, that's not their strength."

Gab agrees there's no obvious like-for-like short-term solution here: "It comes down to whether you put your best players out there and hope that they adapt to doing things they haven't been asked to do before or the ones who best fit your scheme. And in that case you'd probably look to Garnacho, Amad, Mount or whatever."

Mark adds: "The big hope at United is that Amorim can do for Højlund what he did for Gyökeres at Sporting. Let's not forget that Gyökeres was playing in the EFL Championship (England's second tier) with Coventry City 18 months ago. Nobody in the Premier League was prepared to take a chance on him. Brighton & Hove Albion, and their then-sporting director Dan Ashworth, let him leave for £1m. So Amorim knows how to polish a raw diamond; maybe Højlund will now kick on."

Is the 3-4-2-1 formation a given for Amorim at United?

Long-term, it probably is. This season, it may not be. Learning on the fly, while you're trying to grind out results so you can work your way back up the table in the Premier League and go deep in the Europa League, is not ideal. Bruno Fernandes as one of the two players behind the centre-forward is the main question mark, at least if you're going to try to emulate Sporting's style of play.

Mark wonders whether you can put Bruno in midfield, where you could still benefit from his runs and quality on the ball. "But then if he's going to sit next to Ugarte or Casemiro and have to go and cover wide for the wing-back in transition, then you've got a problem."

"I don't know how pragmatic he can be, but these players don't fit," Mark says. "I just don't see how his system at Sporting can work. At least not straight away."

Amorim has said he'll do what's best for the team, which is exactly what you expect a new manager to say, and that may mean shelving the 3-4-2-1 until next year. It's not just that many of the current pieces don't fit, but also that he simply doesn't have the time to work with the pieces who do fit -- not with the hellishly congested fixture list facing United.

We may therefore see United stick with the back four for a while. And if he needs dynamism and pressing behind the forward, we might see Bruno Fernandes dropping deeper, while some combination of Rashford, Garnacho and Amad audition for the No.10 spots. That would mean some kind of 4-3-2-1 formation, with Bruno Fernandes joining Ugarte and Mainoo in front of the back four.

For it to lay the groundwork for next season, he'd need to install the concepts we saw at Sporting. Not just the fact that his No. 10s will work hard off the ball and stay narrow, but the full-backs offering width and crosses, the centre-forward finding space wide, and the centre-backs progressing the ball.

What will Man United, Amorim do in the longer term?

The good news is that Amorim has had to rebuild his squad regularly in his four years and change at Sporting without missing a beat. That suggests that he's good at identifying players who can fit, but also good at getting his message across to them and getting them to do what he wants. The latter is critical because as we stressed before, United likely won't have a huge transfer budget.

At the back, Maguire, Lindelöf and Evans will be out of contract; letting them go will free up salary, but you'll want to add a couple of defenders, ideally one who can start as an alternative to De Ligt depending on how he performs. In midfield, Eriksen will need to be replaced, presumably with a high-energy guy and if you can move Casemiro too you'll get a fee and save some wages.

Further up the pitch, if you can shift Antony you free up cash. Any other moves will be determined by how the corps of wingers adapts to the new role.

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The final word

Ogden: Money will be tight in January at United, but the club might just be able to free up some cash to solve a problem position for Amorim. A player due to be out of contract next summer would suit United because they could sign a good player relatively cheaply to work both in the short and long-term: my preference would be a midfielder who can add energy and dynamism, but doing that will be easier said than done.

Ultimately, we won't see a true Amorim team until next season because United just don't have the players make his preferred system work. But despite that, I expect him to inspire a bounce in results and performances and take United into top four contention. This next six months will show us how good a coach he really is, but I think he will measure up.

Marcotti: The club's PSR situation suggests that spending will be difficult in the next two windows. That said, the likely out-of-contract departures of Evans, Eriksen, Lindelof and Maguire should give some flexibility to the wage bill -- probably as much as £25m.

We think Amorim hasn't written anybody off yet, of course, and all will be given the chance to show they can contribute, but not everyone will fit, particularly when it comes to the club's quartet of wingers (Rashford, Garnacho, Amad, Antony) who become five when you factor in Jadon Sancho, currently on loan at Chelsea. If Bruno ends up playing one of the attacking midfield positions, you'd expect at least two of them to move and fetch some sort of fee.

Then there's Casemiro. He turns 33 in February and will have a year left on his hefty contract. If it looks like he won't get regular playing time, you expect him to move on and while he wouldn't fetch a huge fee, his wages would come off the books.

In a perfect world, United would find most of their solutions in-house. De Ligt would grow into an ideal Amorim centre-back, Yoro would hit the ground running, someone could fit the left wingback role, Højlund could be United's Gyökeres, and so on. But I agree with Mark: one area where they may have to hit the transfer market and make a splash is central midfield. Beyond that, if the pieces that are already there can be adapted/reinvented by Amorim -- and it's big if -- then it's really only about adding some depth at the back given expected departures.

With all the negativity of Ten Hag's final months, it's easy to forget that United are just four points from third place. (And if not for that wacky De Ligt/Danny Ings incident in Ten Hag's final game, it would be three points.) And this was without their most expensive summer signing, Yoro, playing zero minutes.

The path back to the Champions League -- especially if the Premier League gets five spots -- is not a a long one. The road to a proper Rúben Amorim side may take a while longer.