Russia Confirms Ongoing Ukrainian Assault On Belgorod Region

Russian officials have admitted that Ukrainian forces are mounting a ground incursion into the Belgorod region of southwestern Russia, on the border with Ukraine. While it remains unclear whether or not the Ukrainian Armed Forces have successfully penetrated into the region, there are now reports of casualties and an acknowledgment from the Russian side that the situation is at least “difficult.” Moreover, there are growing signs that Ukraine might be seeking to try and occupy at least a portion of Russian territory, similar to its previous attempt in the Kursk region, or at the very least establish some sort of buffer between it and Russian forces facing the Sumy region.

“The situation in Krasnoyaruzhsky district remains difficult,” Vyacheslav Gladkov, the head of the Belgorod region, said in a video posted on Telegram. He was referring to the administrative district in the far west of the Belgorod region, which is bordered to the west by Ukraine’s Sumy region.

So far, Krasnoyaruzhsky district appears to have been the focal point of the incursion, or attempted incursion. At least one Russian soldier has been killed in the district, according to the Belgorod regional government.

“As a result of the shelling, a soldier of the Orlan unit was killed and four other people were wounded,” the regional government said via its channel in Telegram, noting that there are additional casualties in other parts of the region.

Faced with these new developments, Vitaly Kutomanov, the head of the Krasnoyaruzhsky district, said that the area had been sealed off, including to local residents. Citizens of the district confirmed in local chats on social media that entry to the territory had been restricted by the authorities.

Kutomanov described this as a temporary measure that was taken “for security reasons.”

When asked about Ukrainian operations directed against the Belgorod region, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky framed this as a defensive action:

“We have observed a new buildup of [Russian] troops along the border with the Sumy region. We see what they are trying to do — they aim to strike Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia regions. This is what we are seeing. But we will not allow them to do this so easily.”

However, there are also suggestions that a Belgorod offensive may have been in the works for some time.

Initial reports of a Ukrainian operation, at that stage still unconfirmed, began to appear yesterday, as we discussed at the time.

The Russian Ministry of Defense and Telegram channels aligned with the Russian military claimed that Ukrainian forces had staged a ground incursion.

“In order to create a negative background around the negotiations between the presidents of the Russian Federation and the United States on the settlement of the hostilities in Ukraine planned for the evening of March 18, 2025, the Kyiv regime attempted to invade Russian territory at morning (5.50 a.m.) in the western part of Belgorod region near Demidovka and Prilesye to discredit the peace initiatives of U.S. President Donald Trump,” the Russian MoD claimed on Telegram. “The Russian Federation prevented all attempts to cross the state border. The enemy suffered severe losses. The provocation of the Kyiv regime was thwarted.”

“The enemy attempted to invade the territory of the Belgorod region in the areas of the settlements of Grafovka and Prilesye,” the Russian Operation Z Telegram channel stated yesterday, a claim that was also made by the Russian Sever (North) Group of Forces.

Operation Z provided more details of what it said constituted the Ukrainian forces, namely three infantry groups that launched an attack with cover provided by tanks and mine-clearing equipment, including UR-77 Meteorit vehicles. The border area on the Russian side is heavily mined, to prevent just such an incursion.

“The infantry rode on quad bikes under the cover of tanks and artillery. Objective control footage proves that the situation is under the complete control of the Northerners,” Operation Z stated yesterday.

A subsequent account from the Russian MoD detailed five Ukrainian attacks in the direction of Demidovka and Prilesye, with the first attack beginning at 5:50 a.m. local time and the last one beginning at 5:30 p.m. local time. This account claimed that the Ukrainian forces employed up to 200 soldiers, five tanks, 16 other types of armored vehicles, three IMR combat engineer vehicles, a UR-77 mine-clearing vehicle, and four light vehicles.

A video purportedly from the Belgorod region shows a Ukrainian UR-77 with a prominent white triangle marking. This is the same tactical symbol used by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk operation.

Meanwhile, videos from Russian first-person-view (FPV) drone strikes, also claimed to be from the Belgorod operation, show Ukrainian vehicles including a Wisent 1 combat engineer vehicle, an IMR-2 combat engineer vehicle, a UR-77, and possibly a Bradley infantry fighting vehicle.

Other footage shows a pair of Bradleys heading toward the Belgorod border, with one being hit by a Russian Lancet drone before running over a mine, while the other hits a mine on the border.

The Russian MoD claims that it inflicted up to 60 casualties on the Ukrainian side, as well as knocking out one tank, seven other types of armored vehicles, three combat engineer vehicles, and one light vehicle. “The remaining militants were dispersed, the enemy refused further attacks,” the MoD added.

According to Russian MoD statements, the response to the Ukrainian action included 30 fixed-wing air and missile strikes, 13 strikes by combat helicopters, one strike by an Iskander short-range ballistic missile system, one by a Tornado-S multiple-launch rocket system, and two strikes by heavy flamethrower systems. These combined, the MoD said, to carry out strikes against Ukrainian forces located roughly five to six miles from the bother, in the Sumy region.

Despite multiple reports from the Russian side that the incursion was repelled, the latest comments from the region suggest that the fighting is by no means over.

At the very least, the Belgorod region is still coming under heavy drone and artillery attacks, a day after the regional governor complained of this.

It should be noted, however, that the Belgorod region has come under repeated Ukrainian drone and artillery attacks since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, three years ago.

Whatever Ukraine’s ultimate plans for its operation around the border with the Belgorod region, the timing is of interest.

As well as the phone call between Putin and Trump that took place yesterday, as the apparent offensive began, this is also happening as Ukraine’s cross-border operation into Russia’s Kursk region winds down.

Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech at the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry General Assembly in Moscow, Russia, on March 18, 2025, ahead of his phone call with President Donald Trump. Photo by Kremlin Press Office/Anadolu via Getty Images Anadolu

In recent weeks there has been mounting criticism of the Kursk operation from within Ukraine and fears have been voiced by military analysts that Ukraine could end up losing more territory as a result.

Ukrainian authorities admitted that Russia had retaken the town of Sudzha, the largest population center that was under Ukrainian control in Kursk, but they claim that fighting is still ongoing elsewhere in the region.

Nevertheless, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S. think-tank, assesses that Ukraine now controls around 40 square miles of Russian territory, compared to more than 500 square miles when the incursion was in full flow last year.

The deployment of North Korean forces in support of Russia and the temporary U.S. pause on intelligence sharing are both seen as critical factors in the most recent reversals in Kursk.

A member of the Chechen Akhmat battalion stands by a burned-out Ukrainian BMP infantry fighting vehicle in the village of Kazachya Loknya, which was previously held by Ukrainian troops and recently retaken by Russian forces, in the Sudzha district of the Kursk region on March 18, 2025. Photo by TATYANA MAKEYEVA / AFP TATYANA MAKEYEVA

However, now that U.S. intelligence is being provided again, and with U.S. arms deliveries resuming, Kyiv may have taken the bold decision to launch another offensive, this time in the Belgorod region.

Time will tell whether the Ukrainians plan a more sustained offensive directed against Belgorod, or whether this was more about making a statement of intent at the time of critical talks between Moscow and Washington. With significant Ukrainian losses taken during the Kursk offensive, in terms of manpower and materiel, a similar kind of incursion elsewhere will only be more difficult. There is also the possibility that Ukraine is currently engaged in a probing action to test Russian resistance in Belgorod. At the very least, this could draw some Russian resources from Kursk and make the Ukrainian withdrawal from there less costly.

On the other hand, Kyiv may feel that, with the loss of territory once held in Kursk, some kind of ‘buffer zone’ could be a vital bargaining chip now that the idea of a ceasefire is at least being discussed. Lessons will also have been learned in Kursk, such that a more limited offensive might prove tempting, to demonstrate Ukrainian resolve and undermine the Kremlin.

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