By Axios | Created at 2024-10-01 01:50:02 | Updated at 2024-10-01 04:18:59
3 hours ago
A burst of $8 million in new super PAC ad spending is lighting up America's quietest toss-up Senate race, Axios has exclusively learned.
Why it matters: Ohio and Montana have gotten the attention this year, but Michigan's Senate race is one of only two toss-ups left with Ohio in the Cook Political Report ratings. Montana's Senate race is now rated lean Republican.
- Michigan's open seat ups the difficulty: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) won't benefit from a strong incumbent like Jon Tester in Montana or Sherrod Brown in Ohio.
💰 Scoop: Another $8 million in statewide ads is coming from the super PAC Great Lakes Conservative Fund, which supports Michigan GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers, Axios has exclusively learned. The buy doubles the super PAC's investment so far this year.
- Add that to the $22.5 million coming from the Senate Leadership Fund, a PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), as the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday. SLF had not previously spent in Michigan.
Zoom in: The Democratic Senate campaign arm has spent nearly $22 million in the state this year.
- 😰 Axios reported in Sunday's Sneak Peek that Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), the Democratic candidate in the race, told donors last week that Vice President Kamala Harris is "underwater" in the state.
Slotkin has an average polling lead of 4.6% in the Senate race, according to polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
- Republican internal polling shows the candidates are statistically tied, according to a source familiar with the matter.
The big picture: Republicans will take the Senate majority if the GOP can win a single race among Montana, Ohio or Michigan — or pull off a surprise in Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania or Maryland.
- Democrats have far fewer options, chasing long-shots in Texas and Florida to make up any losses in the races listed above. In Nebraska, they're cheering on an independent challenger to GOP incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer.
- "We're keeping an eye on Texas and in Florida, and maybe half an eye on Nebraska," SLF president Steven Law told the Journal.
