Senate Republicans are privately telling their biggest donors the Montana Senate race is nearly in the bag and Ohio is heading their way, Axios has learned.
Why it matters: GOP leader Mitch McConnell has made knocking out Democrats in red states the calling card of his reign. Montana and Ohio are two of his last big goals.
- But to expand a 2025 majority past 52 seats, Republicans will need more money — and a good showing from former President Trump.
- The swing states in the presidential race, except for Georgia and North Carolina, also have competitive Senate contests.
🚨 NEWS: Jason Thielman, the executive director of the NRSC, broke down the view from the GOP's high command this weekend at an exclusive donor retreat in Sea Island, Georgia.
- Former President Trump is down by one point in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but up by one in Arizona, Thielman explained, according to people familiar with the matter.
- In Ohio, the polling has Trump winning by nine percentage points, with GOP Senate candidate Bernie Moreno currently down by two. Moreno is sitting on a big cash advantage over Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) for the remaining six weeks.
- The NRSC expects public polling in October to give Moreno a lead. And it was noted Moreno is looking better than Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) did at this stage of the race in 2022.
The intrigue: Thielman sounded the alarm on major funding gaps for the GOP in Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada.
- All of these states are in play, he said, but it will be difficult for Republicans to emerge victorious without fresh cash.
- "Senate Democrats are strongly positioned to defend our majority because the most important factors in every single Senate race are in Democrats' favor: we have the better candidates, the more effective message and the stronger campaigns," DSCC communications director David Bergstein told us.
By the numbers: In Michigan, there's a 2:1 money disadvantage for the GOP.
- In Arizona, it's 2.5:1.
- In Nevada, it's 1.5:1.
- In Wisconsin, it's 2:1.
Zoom out: September pitches to donors are usually a mix of hope and fear.
- There was plenty of optimism Republicans would win back control of the Senate but also deep concern the Democrats would bury them with money in the race's final weeks.
- The goal is to leave donors confident their contributions are making a difference but concerned they could be doing more.
- With Vice President Kamala Harris crushing Trump in the fundraising game, Senate Republicans have been warning for weeks about the Democratic Party's fundraising advantage