Senate Republican leader race hit with Trump fear factor

Senators are privately (and publicly) saying they hope Donald Trump stays out of the internal election to replace Mitch McConnell as Senate GOP leader.

Why it matters: None of them know — or it's a damn good secret — whether the former president will make an endorsement. But senators and advisors fear a Trump intervention could turn the secret ballot leader election into a public feud.

• "I said, 'Sir, if I was you, I would stay out of the race, because there's no win for you in this,'" Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) told us about a recent call with Trump.
• "I hope not," said Sen. Thom Tillis, when asked if he thinks Trump will weigh in. "I think outside influence could be problematic."
• "He's offered some views on it to me," Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) told us. "It's safe to say he has a pretty consistent prediction of who he thinks it'll be." Hawley said he did not know if Trump would weigh in.

Between the lines: This the first real competitive Senate GOP leadership race of the Trump-era, and his endorsement carries a lot of weight with a growing segment of the conference.

McConnell has had a tumultuous relationship with the former president.

• The top two candidates — Sens. John Thune and John Cornyn — each have had rocky relationships with Trump. However, they have worked to make amends.
• After Jan. 6, Thune denounced Trump and initially endorsed Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) for president. Cornyn has said the GOP needed to move on from Trump.

Senate sources do not talk about Sen. Rick Scott's (R-Fla.) bid as seriously as Thune's or Cornyn's, though he has a good relationship with Trump.

• "Sen. Scott is focused on dramatically changing the way the Senate operates and creating a member-driven process," according to spokesperson McKinley Lewis.

Sources often describe Thune as the likely favorite, though they say not to discount how much Cornyn's long history of hard-dollar fundraising for Senate campaigns means to people.

• Cornyn told us it's been a few weeks since he spoke with Trump about the leadership race. But he visited Mar-a-Lago a couple months ago "to talk about planning for the future," adding they've been "visiting with some of the transition folks."
• Mullin said Trump "likes" Thune despite their rocky past. The Oklahoma Republican has publicly backed Thune.
• Some sources suspect there could be a late entry: NRSC Chair Steve Daines (R-Mont.) is the most-floated name.

The bottom line: There's not a lot of incentive for senators benefiting from both Thune and Cornyn's aggressive fundraising efforts to commit too early.

• "If one of them felt that they really had a majority, I think they would not be shy about saying that, but I don't think anybody does," Hawley said.