Seven Big Questions Ahead of the Return of the Premier League

The Premier League is back this weekend and it isn’t going away again any time soon. Ahead of Matchday 12, we look at seven key issues to keep an eye on over the coming months.

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Will Amorim Produce a ‘New Manager Bounce’?

A ‘new manager bounce’ is always going to be useful, but the state of the Premier League table means a quick upturn in results at Manchester United could drastically alter the course of their season.

They might be 13th, but they are also just four points off third, meaning that after two upcoming winnable fixtures at Ipswich and at home to Everton, United could be third by 1 December. They probably won’t be, not least because the next two results of 10 other clubs would all have to go their way, but the fact it’s mathematically possible does nonetheless illustrate that new manager Rúben Amorim has to climb a hill rather than a mountain to turn United’s season around.

United will know they need far more than a short-term uptick in form, though, and Amorim will surely be given a couple of years at least to try and establish something more sustainable at Old Trafford. But there is no underestimating what a few wins could do for both the team’s confidence and the mood of the fans.

Confidence isn’t everything, but given United’s problems in front of goal, with only Crystal Palace (-7.0) having underperformed compared to their expected goals to a greater degree in the Premier League this season (-6.5), their attackers could do worse than getting a bit of a morale boost. A ‘new manager bounce’ could be just what the doctor ordered.

Can Ødegaard Get Arsenal’s Season Back on Track?

Arsenal weren’t quite treading water while Martin Ødegaard was out injured, but it is probably fair to say they have for at least a few weeks been impatiently checking on his progress and wishing his return into reality.

Manager Mikel Arteta arguably got a little too impatient ahead of the trip to Chelsea before the international break when he threw his captain in at the deep end with a start and the full 90 minutes in a tough game despite the fact he had played basically no football for two months.

Arteta’s gamble on Ødegaard’s fitness paid off, though. The Norwegian came through the game unscathed, created twice as many chances as anyone else on the pitch (four), provided the assist for his side’s only goal, and overall looked perfectly up to speed. Arteta even then managed to convince the Norway staff that Ødegaard should rest at home and sit out Nations League fixtures against Slovenia and Kazakhstan despite being fit to face Chelsea.

Now, having had two weeks off, he should be ready and raring to go, and Arsenal will be far, far better off for it.

They haven’t looked anything like their fluent best in possession while Ødegaard’s been out, ranking ninth in the Premier League this season for open-play expected goals (12.5 xG), with chances worth just 1.1 xG per 90 when excluding set-pieces. Their problems have been shown up in a recent run of four games without a win that has left their title hopes not quite hanging by a thread, but hardly looking rock solid. With a gap of nine points to Liverpool at the top of the table, the Opta supercomputer now gives Arsenal just a 4.6% chance of winning the title.

But the Opta supercomputer doesn’t take into account the psychological boost of having a player like Ødegaard return, or the effect his presence could have on the likes of Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz and Gabriel Martinelli, whose goal he set up at Stamford Bridge. Having their captain back as the fixtures pile up could well help Arsenal claw their way back into the title race.

Can Any of the Mid-Table Teams Build Up Some Consistency?

The middle of the Premier League, in which 11 teams are separated by just four points, is more bunched than ever before. By definition, it is full of inconsistent teams.

Of them, Arsenal, Brighton, Fulham and Newcastle are the only sides who have won back-to-back games more than once all season, while eight of them have at some stage gone on a run of at least three games without a win.

So, as Premier League football returns, everyone from Chelsea in third to Man Utd in 13th could be aiming for a challenge for European football but will also have to be wary that the bottom half of the table isn’t far away. A run of three wins in a row – something only three teams other than Liverpool and Manchester City have managed all season – would easily catapult any one of the teams involved into Champions League contention at the very least.

Jonathan Manuel / Data Analyst

According to the Opta Power Rankings, Brighton have the easiest next five fixtures of every club in the Premier League, so Fabian Hürzeler’s side could hope to be one of the teams who jumps up the table in the next few weeks. Fulham and Nottingham Forest face much trickier runs, both facing three of last season’s top five in their next five games.

The fixtures come thick and fast over the next month, and a lot could change for the teams tightly bunched in the middle of the table.

Can Manchester City Stop the Rot?

Manchester City aren’t in trouble, as such, but having lost four games in a row in all competitions, they needed a pick-me-up ahead of their return to action.

Step in Pep Guardiola, who this week signed a contract extension at the club which, although it hasn’t yet been officially announced, will have given everyone at the club a massive boost ahead of what could be the most testing period of his entire City reign.

What’s more, that might not be where the much-needed boosts end for the four-time champions. According to premierinjuries.com, City are currently dealing with 10 injuries, which is the joint-most of all teams in the top flight. However, that same source suggests as many as eight of those players – Rodri and Oscar Bobb aside – have a chance of returning to action as soon as this weekend. With a bit of luck, City could very nearly have a fully-fit squad available again before long.

Ahead of a tricky run of fixtures before Christmas which includes games against Tottenham, Liverpool, Nottingham Forest, Manchester United and Aston Villa, with Champions League games sprinkled on top, they’ll need to improve on recent displays if they are to keep pace with Arne Slot’s team at the top of the table.

Getting a load of their best players back and available again will be a major help as Guardiola looks to put an end to what is already the worst losing run of his entire managerial career.

How Long Can Salah Keep This Up?

Mohamed Salah is on a quite incredible run of form. He has eight goals and six assists in 11 Premier League appearances this season, including six goals or assists in his last three matches. In all competitions, he has, inside the space of just 17 appearances, already reached double figures in both columns.

He has been directly involved in 67% of Liverpool’s Premier League goals this season (14/21), the highest ratio by a player for any side in the division in 2024-25. Only Matt Le Tissier for Southampton in 1993-94 (69% – 34/49) has ever directly contributed to a higher proportion of a side’s goals in a single season in the competition.

Salah has a long, long way to go to challenge Le Tissier’s record over a full season, but Liverpool have started life under Slot incredibly and neither he nor they appear to be showing any sign of letting up. If their talisman can even make it to Christmas maintaining his current output, then Liverpool – widely unfancied to win the league before start of the season – will be in a very, very good position to make a good go of their title tilt.

Is Anyone Going to be Cut Adrift at the Bottom?

As recently as three matchdays ago, the bottom four were all winless. Then, Dr. Tottenham found a cure for Crystal Palace and Ipswich, and Wolves and Southampton faced fellow relegation candidates, with all four getting off the mark.

Those recent results have meant the bottom four aren’t quite the only teams battling the drop, but with none of them on any more than eight points from 11 games, they do remain the most likely to be cut adrift before we even reach the turn of the year.

Southampton have just four points, and our fixture difficulty calculations suggest they have the toughest next five games of all teams in the Premier League, with Liverpool, Brighton, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Tottenham up next.

Russell Martin’s men have been unfortunate to find themselves on the losing side in a few of their games, but they have also been outplayed a fair few times, too, and one win from 11 has left them facing a huge task to escape the drop. Realistically, they will need to win at least one of those next five games just to stay within touching distance.

Jonathan Manuel / Data Analyst

Palace look like the other team who might need to start worrying. They have a testing upcoming schedule, set to face Villa, Newcastle, Man City and Brighton in their next five. The other game – against fellow strugglers Ipswich – looks absolutely massive.

Things appear less bleak for Kieran McKenna’s side, who will hope their win at Spurs signals the turning of a corner and they should head into their next few games full of confidence. Wolves, meanwhile, are unbeaten in three, and have the second-easiest next five fixtures, so this looks like a good opportunity to build some momentum.

However, all of the teams at the bottom of the table have lost games against teams they would have hoped to beat, and have also either caused an upset or held their own against stronger opposition. Nothing whatsoever should be taken for granted based solely on fixture difficulty, and everyone down there needs to be very wary indeed of being cut adrift.

Can Brentford Win Away?

With 16 points from six games at the Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford currently have the best home record in the Premier League this season. With zero points from five games on the road, they (somehow only) have the second-worst away record in the division.

The difference between their home points per game (2.67) and away (0) of +2.67 is the biggest by any team in any season in Premier League history.

But if ever a statistic needed context, this is it. Brentford have played away to Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, Man Utd (not on one of their off days) and Fulham. At home, they have played the bottom four, plus West Ham and Bournemouth, who are also both in the bottom half. So, this Saturday’s game away to Everton is a great opportunity to finally pick up an away win – or at least a point.

Manager Thomas Frank said he was “burning inside” following his team’s injury-time capitulation at Fulham, but he and his team deserve credit for bouncing back just five days later to beat Bournemouth – who had just beaten City and Arsenal themselves – despite twice falling behind.

Frank says his team haven’t yet hit the levels they did last season. At home, at least, they’re not far off, so away results should start to follow, particularly as the games get a little more favourable on the road.

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