Seven Wins in a Row: Newcastle’s Momentum Can Carry Them To Their Best Season in Years

Newcastle’s win at Arsenal on Tuesday made it seven in a row in all competitions. Eddie Howe’s men can start to dream of a famous season that might even end one of football’s most famous trophy droughts.

Newcastle United’s 2-0 win at Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium in their League Cup semi-final first leg on Tuesday felt big.

It might only be half-time in the tie, but given only one team has ever overturned a two-goal deficit in a League Cup semi-final – Aston Villa against then second-tier Tranmere Rovers in 1993-94 – the odds are stacked in Newcastle’s favour, especially with the second leg at home.

Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon scored the goals while the Magpies’ defence held firm under huge pressure from the Gunners in the second half, as Newcastle recorded their first away victory over Arsenal in all competitions since a 1-0 Premier League win in November 2010. They went into the game this week having lost 12 of their last 13 visits to the Emirates (D1).

Eddie Howe’s men now have one foot in the final, where the club would be looking to win their first major trophy since 1955, when they lifted the FA Cup.

This was Howe’s 150th game in charge of Newcastle in all competitions, and the former Bournemouth boss recorded his 74th win (D36 L40). Only Kevin Keegan (83) and Frank Watt (79, though Newcastle were run by committee back then) recorded more wins in their first 150 games in charge of the club.

With Newcastle also sitting fifth in the Premier League, things are looking rosy in the opening stages of 2025 for the club.

But it wasn’t always this way. In fact, it wasn’t even this way just over a month ago.

Their 2-0 home defeat to a struggling West Ham in late November was a cold slap across the face, and was followed by a 1-1 draw at Crystal Palace in which they had just one shot all game. They scored dispute no having a single shot on target, with their goal coming courtesy of a Marc Guéhi own goal.

That was followed by an excellent performance against leaders Liverpool, where they earned a 3-3 draw at St. James’ Park, but then came a 4-2 loss at Brentford.

After that four-game run without a win, few would have seen the subsequent run of form coming. Newcastle have since recorded seven wins in a row in all competitions, scoring 20 goals and conceding only twice in that time.

Five of those games have been in the Premier League, beating Leicester City, Ipswich Town, Aston Villa, Manchester United and Tottenham, while they also dispatched Brentford in the League Cup quarter-finals. Tuesday’s victory at Arsenal made it seven.

Newcastle have scored at least two goals in each of their last nine games, only once having done so more times – in February 1961 (10 games). Given their next game is at home to League Two side Bromley in the FA Cup on Saturday, you’d probably back them to extend their run, too.

Isak has been responsible for many of those goals, scoring 10 in nine games since the start of December. No player from Europe’s top five leagues can match that tally in that time.

The Swede’s goal at the Emirates was also his 50th for Newcastle in all competitions. Since his debut for the club in August 2022, only Erling Haaland (105) and Mohamed Salah (73) have scored more goals in all competitions among Premier League players.

Gordon has also stepped up, cementing his position as a key player since signing a new deal in October. The England international has either scored (3) or assisted (4) in each of his last seven games for Newcastle.

Many have pointed to the midfield three of Sandro Tonali, Joelinton and Bruno Guimarães as a big reason for Newcastle’s recent form. However, they managed to defeat Arsenal without the suspended Guimarães on Tuesday, with Joe Willock starting. That secured their first win without the talented Brazilian starting since his debut for the club in February 2022, having drawn four and lost three games in all competitions without him prior to this.

The Opta Power Rankings have not ignored Newcastle’s form. They’re as high as 13th now, ahead of teams like Chelsea (14th), Napoli (15th) and Milan (17th). It’s their highest position since being ranked 12th on 7 December 2023.

It’s not their highest position ever in the fabled rankings (well, we think they’re fabled). They were as high as eighth as recently as November 2023. But this is the highest Newcastle have been in over a year, suggesting they’re getting back to where they were prior to last season’s struggles in the second half of the campaign, which could largely be blamed on significant injury issues.

They would still love to get back into the Champions League, though, and could well do that. Newcastle sit just a point behind Chelsea in fourth in the Premier League, though according to Opta’s expected points model, they should be ahead of the Blues already.

Our expected points model simulates the number of goals scored by each side in every match based on the expected goals (xG) value of all shots taken. It then uses the simulated number of goals to determine the match outcome (win/draw/loss). Every match is then simulated 10,000 times, allowing the expected points for each team to be calculated based on the proportion of simulations they win/draw/lose.

This isn’t an exact science, as expected goals data doesn’t account for several factors, such as game state and dangerous periods of possession that don’t lead to shots. But it’s still a decent barometer of how teams have performed through the first 20 matchdays (19 matchdays in the cases of Everton and Liverpool).

As you can see below, Newcastle and Chelsea swap places in there expected points table. They might do so in the actual table soon enough too given Enzo Maresca’s men have won just two points from their last four games in the league, while Newcastle have won their last five games in a row.

Jonny Whitmore / Senior Data Editor

The Opta supercomputer can see Newcastle making it two Champions League campaigns in three seasons, giving Howe’s men a 40.98% chance of a top-four finish. Of course, they may not need to finish that high if England’s top flight secures a Champions League spot for fifth place, and the supercomputer sees fifth as Newcastle’s likeliest final position, where they finish in 22.01% of simulations.

We all know form can fluctuate, Newcastle as much as anyone. At one point between September and October, they won just one game in six (D2 L3), which was a 1-0 victory at home to fourth-tier AFC Wimbledon in the League Cup.

Without wanting to jinx it, though, there’s little reason to think their current run will screech to a halt anytime soon. Five of Newcastle’s next six games in all competitions are at home, and the only away trip in that time is to struggling Southampton.

After Bromley, it’s back to Premier League action at home to Wolves and Bournemouth before they head to St Mary’s. They then host Fulham before welcoming Arsenal to the north east for the return leg of their League Cup semi-final.

When the players trudged off after their 2-0 home loss to West Ham in late November, thoughts of finals and Champions League qualification will have felt a world away. Now, ambitions for the remainder of this season can be for one of the club’s best campaigns in living memory.

It really is a funny old game.

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