Shabana Mahmood braces for ousting at next General Election as Muslim independents accused of Gaza 'plot' to boost the Greens

But the real risk, pollsters have warned, lies 120 miles from Westminster, in Ms Mahmood’s constituency of Birmingham Ladywood over an issue 2,325 miles away - in Gaza.

"Birmingham is so split now, and that's one of the challenges that Shabana faces," one concerned resident said.

The area has undergone a major political transformation since the MP first won her seat back in 2010 with a comfortable margin.

A Labour stronghold for more than half a century, the Westminster seat is now forecast to be engulfed by the Greens within three years.

The voter added: "Of course, what is driving the increased spread towards the Greens now is Gaza. It looks like the Greens are going to win Ladywood with a huge majority.

"And that’s because of the rise of humanised sectarian politics, identity politics, international issues such as the conflict in Gaza… It’s been so divided.

"People want to see politicians stand up for what they believe in and stand up for their values. And they’re not getting that with her."

Ms Mahmood, it is warned, could suffer the same fate as Reform UK did in the Gorton & Denton by-election.

There, Zack Polanski rallied a fierce campaign on the war in Gaza, wheeling out their candidate Hannah Spencer, brandishing placards emblazoned with the slogan: "Stop Reform UK, Stop Islamophobia".

"The Greens are whipping up hatred and deliberately raising the salience of Gaza," a senior Cabinet minister said at the time, while Ms Spencer campaigned wearing a keffiyeh, a traditional piece of headwear worn across the Middle East.

"They’re hammering us. They’re a totally different party to the one we thought they were...," the politician warned.

The entire campaign was littered with controversy. Jewish Labour peer Lord Katz condemned a Green Party leaflet - penned in Urdu - saying Labour must be "punished for Gaza".

Today's division in Birmingham has been described as yet another warning for the rest of the nation, the city council’s leader of the opposition, Reform UK’s Jex Parkin, said.

"It's a fragmented city. It's a fragmented city council, and it's indicative of a fragmented society, and that's a real challenge," he told the People’s Channel.

"There are now so many different groups of people with different ideas and objectives and political views that are about living together in society…

Ms Mahmood took home a reduced majority in 2024

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“And when we can't unite under a common set of goals and a common purpose, then that presents its challenges.”

In May, the long-held Labour council shattered into a five-party split, where no party had overall control.

Reform UK took home the most seats, winning over 22 wards. However, the Liberal Democrats, with 12 seats, formed a coalition administration alongside pro-Gaza independent candidates and the Greens, which won 19 seats.

Labour was shunted into fourth place. Ms Mahmood admitted it was a “devastating night” for her party, and echoed Sir Keir Starmer’s demand their party "must do better".

The Birmingham Ladywood MP suffered a bruising reduction to her once-comfortable majority at the last General Election - with another drop in support when Labour lost its 20-year control over the city council in May.

Since 2010, Ms Mahmood has witnessed highs of majorities of 28,714 in 2017 - and hit a low two years ago, beating the runner up with fewer than 3,500 votes.

But the CEO of Electoral Calculus was more hesitant to guarantee a Green victory in 2029.

Martin Baxter explained to GB News the seat was "difficult" to forecast, especially with Labour parachuting a new left-leaning leader into No10.

Additionally, as the seat with the third highest proportion of Muslims in the country (53 per cent), a surge in support for pro-Gaza independent candidates is also evident, he added.

Ayoub Khan was selected to represent Birmingham Perry Barr in the Commons back in 2024

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After the October 7 attacks in 2023, Ayoub Khan, who was a Liberal Democrat councillor on Birmingham City Council, called on the authority to recognise the jump in anti-Muslim hate in the wake of the attack.

He also demanded the creation of a "Homes for Palestine Refugees programme" - just like the Homes for Ukraine scheme launched following the illegal war.

Mr Khan, who now sits as an Independent MP for Birmingham Perry Barr following the 2024 General Election, also accused Suella Braverman of being "misguided" in her assertion that the "from the river to the sea" slogan was antisemitic - for which he later apologised.

In Ms Mahmood's constituency, at the 2024 General Election, another pro-Gaza independent, Akhmed Yakoob, won 33 per cent of the vote, while Ms Mahmood won the seat with 42 per cent.

"There may be another Muslim independent candidate at the next election," Mr Baxter mused. "And the Greens are trying to attract the Muslim vote too."

Ahead of the Local Elections, a poll, conducted by JL Partners, revealed more than half of Muslims would vote for pro-Gaza independents to stop Labour from winning.

The Policy Exchange research showed the party's backing amongst Muslim voters took a nosedive from a historic 80 per cent to just 33 per cent.

Nearly half would consider throwing their weight behind Zack Polanski’s party for the very same reason.

But it appears as if Mr Burnham is attempting to boost his favour among Muslims to win back the “soft left” wing of his party which became disillusioned under his predecessor.

Just two weeks before entering No10, the Makerfield MP dished out an apology for Labour’s first response after Israel launched military action along the Gaza strip.

As voters as well as politicians on Labour’s left began to become concerned over the party’s floating position on Israel and Palestine, Mr Burnham said they would “do better” on his watch.

“I know many people feel that at the start of Israel’s military action in Gaza my party didn’t get it right and I am sorry about that. The response has too often not been good enough. We need to do better,” he said in July.

“In Ladywood, all these efforts will try to attract Muslim voters, which makes it difficult to predict exactly how voters will react,” Mr Baxter said.

“Our current estimate is that the Greens could do well, but our estimate will have a larger margin of error than normal because of the unusual seat characteristics.”

As it stands, his firm’s polling projects that Greens will win 37.2 per cent of the vote, while Ms Mahmood would remain in second place - but with 24.9 per cent of the share.

Ms Mahmood is also on the defence back in Whitehall after the Home Secretary announced a sweeping set of radical reforms to the asylum system.

As part of the overhaul, ministers are looking to double the amount of time taken for migrant workers to qualify for permanent residents, from five to 10 years.

Refugees would have to wait for two decades. The more stringent rules have led to calls for Ms Mahmood to introduce exemptions for care workers.

Even her own junior Home Office minister, Mike Tapp, raised his head above the parapet and penned an unauthorised article insisting that care workers should be exempt.

He wrote: “It is my strong belief that those who have come to the United Kingdom on care worker visas who have played by the rules and have genuinely contributed to our care system should not be required to wait longer to apply for settlement.

“That is the issue I am working hard to address,” he said, triggering a three-day row over whether he breached the Ministerial Code by breaking collective ministerial responsibility.

While Ms Mahmood was said to be pushing to sack the brazen MP, Downing Street shut down any attempt to sack Mr Tapp.

Instead, they opted for a slap on the wrist, with Mr Burnham’s top team firing the Dover & Deal MP during the Prime Minister’s first days in No10.

Rumours swirled over whether Mr Burnham would reappoint the Birmingham Ladywood MP to her Government position after left-wing factions of the party cried out over the direction of policy in the Home Office.

Unison’s General Secretary Andrea Egan told GB News the Home Secretary was 'closing the door' on overseas staff

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And, now, Labour’s largest union backer, Unison, which represents more than 1.3 million workers, has issued a fresh warning to Ms Mahmood over her “cruel and unnecessary” practices.

Unison’s General Secretary Andrea Egan told GB News: “Social care is already under immense strain, with tens of thousands of vacancies.

“The sector’s been reliant on overseas staff willing to do this essential work, but the Home Secretary is closing the door on them.

“Extending the amount of time people need to spend in the UK to qualify to remain risks driving experienced, committed staff away.

“If the Government’s serious about fixing social care, it must match its ambition of pay and standards with fair treatment for the workforce.

“The best way to start is by scrapping these cruel, unnecessary practices.”

Rob Bates told GB News he suspects the Home Secretary will elect to water down the migrant reforms, which were introduced to Parliament under the Immigration and Asylum Bill in June.

Back in April, Angela Rayner was heard from the backbenches warning the reforms making it harder for migrants to settle permanently in the UK were “un-British”.

Angela Rayner previously branded the migrant reforms 'un-British'

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Now, back on the frontline of politics, the housing minister spoke out about her colleague’s briefing once again.

Ms Rayner said: “If we’ve asked someone to come to this country to contribute and we set down those rules, I don’t think we should be retrospectively changing them.

“I know there’s an ongoing conversation about what we do about the workforce and how we deliver it into the future, and I’d like to see a proper career structure that gives our young people – the Prime Minister yesterday talked about young people – opportunity to get into employment and plans.

“I’d love to see young people seeing care as a career path for them where they can start off as I did and then go all the way through to whether they want to go into the health service or whether they want to stay in the care sector, but to understand the value of that job. It’s the most incredibly rewarding thing that I’ve ever done.”

And, as Labour is increasingly deferring to public consultations, the migration expert suspects that Mr Burnham and Ms Mahmood will go down the same route and commit themselves to the outcome.

The result will then be treated as their “lodestar” for whether to proceed or not with the plans.

“This was a consultation ‘hijacked’ by the very unions, left wing groups, community interest bodies, and thus the ’advice’ they will glean from it is that the extension should not be applied,” Mr Bates added.

“I also think it’ll be interesting to eventually see how this overlaps with the new care sector plan that it’s being mooted.”

A Government spokesman said: “The Government has consulted on whether there should be transitional arrangements for some people in the UK today who have not received settled status.

“No decisions have been made. We are currently reviewing the 200,000 responses and will announce the new Earned Settlement model in the autumn.”