Shocking real reason Luigi Mangione is set to plead GUILTY... as defense attorney reveals all: 'There's a lot happening behind the scenes'

Luigi Mangione's lawyers are about to make a high-stakes gamble that could prevent him from dying behind bars, a former prosecutor has predicted.

David Gelman, who now runs his own criminal defense firm, said he was not surprised by reports that Mangione's lawyers will on Friday change his plea in the federal case.

Mangione, 28, is accused of shooting dead the CEO of UnitedHealthcare, Brian Thompson, in December 2024.

He pleaded not guilty to federal charges of stalking resulting in the death of an executive. At a hearing scheduled to take place in Manhattan’s Federal Court at 11am Friday morning, he is expected to formally reverse course and plead guilty.

'There's a lot happening behind the scenes that none of us know about. I think that's something we have to keep in mind,' said Gelman, agreeing that a handful of dice was being rolled at once.

'If I were his attorney, I think it would probably be the best situation for him.'

Mangione's federal trial was due to begin in January.

If he pleads guilty now, he will be hoping that Judge Margaret Garnett looks favorably on him and sentences him to less than the maximum of life behind bars without parole.

'I can't say he deserves it, but at the end of his life he could potentially be freed to live out the rest of it,' said Gelman.

And while the decision may dismay his legion of fans and appear perplexing, given his so-far-steadfast refusal to budge, Gelman said it was in fact part of a complex plan concocted by his legal team.

As things stand, Mangione is set to be tried in both state and federal court – with the State trial scheduled to start next month, a trial that a guilty plea in federal court may very well derail.

Following the expected guilty plea, his lawyers will immediately file to dismiss the state murder charges, arguing that he cannot under New York law be tried twice for the same crime.

The state will certainly disagree, arguing that their murder charges are not the same as the federal stalking charges.

It will then come down to the judge in the state case, Justice Gregory Carro, to decide whether the prosecution can proceed. Appeals and counter-appeals will ensue.

Either way, said Gelman, a change of plea on Friday will mean that the September 8 start date for the state case will certainly be scrapped.

Gelman said the spectacle of federal and state prosecutors competing to be the first to bring Mangione to trial was 'unusual.'

'This is something you don't see very often. But due to the publicity, the nature of the offence and the manpower it took just to get him, for both the federal and the state offices, I think that's probably the main reason,' he said.

'They both want their shot at him. They both want to get justice. Normally there isn't a lot of jockeying when it comes to that. But this is not your normal case either.'

The Baltimore-born Ivy League graduate was on the run for five days after the midtown Manhattan murder. He was finally arrested when the manager of a McDonald’s in Altoona, Pennsylvania, called 911 to report that a man bearing a striking resemblance to the shooter was sitting in her restaurant. 

Officers arrested him as he finished his meal of a breakfast sandwich and hash-browns.

Had the federal case come first, it 'wouldn't be as clear cut' to claim double jeopardy, Gelman said, since the double jeopardy law is a state one, governing state trials.

Judge Garnett dismissed the death-penalty-eligible federal murder and weapons counts against Mangione in January. Yet the intense interest in the case means there is no guarantee that she will spare him a life sentence.

She 'is not bound by any plea agreement or anything like that,' said Gelman.

But if the state case does continue, with Judge Carro deciding that there is no double jeopardy, the defense have one further trump card to play, Gelman said: stacking the jury with young, potentially sympathetic jurors.

'If I were defense counsel, that's one of the main things I would want to do,' said Gelman. 'He's got a cult following. His defense fund has raised hundreds of thousands of dollars, presumably from younger individuals.

‘The defense theory would be: if we can get these younger individuals on there who potentially think like that, who hate the healthcare industry, they almost want to justify his actions. That's exactly what they're looking to do, and that's why they'd want a younger jury.

'I'm sure the state will object tremendously. It's going to be a very interesting voir dire (jury selection) to pick this jury, if it happens.'

Earlier this week Mangione's lawyers withdrew a plan to claim 'extreme emotional disturbance' in his defense. Gelman said the decision was likely provoked by their own analysts recommending against it.

A report by TMZ suggested that Mangione's team withdrew the argument because it would be in essence admitting guilt, but Gelman said the truth was probably more prosaic.

'I think they wanted to withdraw it because their own experts, their own doctors, probably said to them: look, this is not going to work out in your favor.

‘If we get up there and get cross examined, we could get destroyed,' he said.

With Friday’s roll of the dice they are hoping that isn’t a prospect they will ever have to face.