Six Knee-Jerk Reactions to Premier League Matchday 4

We’re back for our weekly review of the Premier League’s action with a bunch of hastily made conclusions from Matchday 4.

Every week here on Opta Analyst, we do away with our usual approach of diving deep into the data and instead make a load of knee-jerk reactions based on a single round of Premier League fixtures.

After Matchday 4, you might think the table is starting to take shape; it’s certainly easy to start jumping to conclusions this early on.

But which of our six knee-jerk reactions this week will hold up in the weeks to come, and which will be disproven as the season goes on? Read on to see what you think.

Carrick Isn’t the Man For the Job

Michael Carrick did an exceptional job in turning Manchester United’s season around after taking over last season, and there was a good argument that he deserved to be given the manager’s job on a permanent basis. Few could have made a strong case against him.

But the early evidence of this season is that he might just have been running on vibes last term.

They have been unconvincing so far in 2026-27, roundly beaten by Hull on the opening weekend, failing to beat Everton when they were there for the taking last week, and on Sunday losing at home to rivals Manchester City despite playing 67 minutes against 10 men.

They weren’t really helped, in that the officials somehow failed to spot Enzo Fernández affecting play from an offside position before Erling Haaland scored the winner, but United also didn’t do enough to win the game.

City were the better team despite playing with a one-man disadvantage for most of it. United managed just two shots on target after Phil Foden’s 23rd-minute red card and, for the first time under Carrick, generated 1.0 xG or lower in a home Premier League game.

While there will understandably be dissatisfaction with the officials, it was a worryingly inept performance. Carrick needs to see some improvement, and fast.

We Have a Title Race on Our Hands

After four games of Arsenal winning comfortably, it felt like there was little prospect of a competitive title race this season.

They are the best, most functional and most reliable team, not least because their defence is so incredibly watertight.

They survived an impressive onslaught from Sunderland at the Stadium of Light on Saturday, and even with a debatable penalty given against them on Saturday night, they held firm to see out yet another clean sheet.

With just one goal conceded in four games so far, they are currently on course to concede just 10 goals all season, which would obliterate Chelsea’s record of 15 goals conceded in a Premier League season.

Manchester City had been far, far less convincing in their first three games. They required an injury-time winner to beat Bournemouth and rode their luck at home to Coventry.

But then on Sunday, they played most of the Manchester derby with 10 men and were the better team throughout, finding a winner against the odds. Yes, it should have been ruled out, but given how they coped with being a man down, it’s reasonable to suggest that if there was to be a winner from that game, it deserved to be them.

They showed incredible grit and togetherness, which could be deemed a mild surprise given how new this team is. After Iliman Ndiaye replaced Rayan Cherki at half-time, five of the 10 City players on the pitch had joined the club in 2026. And they have a new manager, too.

With their unrivalled firepower in attack and creativity in midfield, City were always going to be a force, but this resolute defensive display in which they ceded territory showed that they can do things the hard way, too. That will make them contenders.

Emery’s Time is Up

Unai Emery cut a forlorn figure on the Villa Park sidelines on Saturday. He looked beaten, fatigued by a summer of his squad being ransacked, and helpless as his remaining Aston Villa players were well beaten by Nottingham Forest.

More sympathetic folk might point to just how much change he has had to contend with, and just how many key players have departed: the entire spine of the team that won the Europa League and finished in the top four last season has gone. That’s a lot for any club or manager to deal with.

But it is also enough to wear anyone down, and Emery looked tired of it all on Saturday afternoon.

Although Villa scored their first goal of the season when Alysson turned in from a well-worked set-piece routine, much of their play and the atmosphere at Villa Park felt flat.

It felt stale, and there were many of the hallmarks of a club that needs a change. For a fourth time, Villa have started a Premier League season without a win from their first four games.

However, Emery may be quick to point out that one of those occasions was last season, and Villa made a huge success of their 2025-26 season. He will believe he has the ingredients to spark an upturn in form this year, too, but there is no getting away from how concerning things felt this weekend.

Coventry Are Doomed

Four games, four defeats, not a goal scored. Coventry are just the fifth side in English top-flight history to lose each of their opening four matches of a campaign while also failing to score a goal, after Derby in 1899-1900, Stoke in 1906-07, Preston in 1924-25 and Crystal Palace in 2017-18. That means they’re only the second in the Premier League era.

It’s not looking great for Frank Lampard’s side, and the ease with which they were battered by Brighton on Sunday afternoon won’t fill fans with too much hope for the season.

Taiwo Awoniyi’s red card certainly contributed to the eventual 5-0 scoreline, but Brighton were already 2-0 up by that point, and the game was probably already over. On that basis, it’s easy to start fearing for Coventry.

However, there are also some reasons for positivity. It’s not all bad.

Firstly, Coventry have played their two most difficult fixtures of the whole season: away to Arsenal and Man City. Only two other teams in the whole Premier League have faced one of those games, and those are not fixtures from which they would have expected, or even hoped, to take anything. They very nearly did get something from the Etihad, too.

The defeat to Hull was disappointing, but they had the better chances, and on another day they might have won. And against Brighton this weekend, they were on top early on and probably should have gone ahead, Jack Rudoni spurning the best of their chances.

Their underlying numbers are slightly more positive. They have generated chances worth 4.2 xG, which is more than four other teams, and their underperformance compared to their xG of -4.2 is the worst in the division, suggesting goals will start to flow soon enough.

However, after a chastening defeat, they need far more than underlying numbers, and fast. Otherwise, they could sink without a trace.

Schade Will Be the Next Player to Make the Step Up to the Big Six

Last season, Brentford were an effective collective and, for the first time in a while, there was no standout player for them to spend the summer trying to keep hold of.

And they have benefitted from that continuity, making a strong, unbeaten start to the new campaign as they seek to overcome the disappointment of just missing out on Europe last season by righting that wrong.

However, they know, and we know too, that their best players will eventually leave, and Kevin Schade looks a likely candidate to pique the interest of the big boys next summer.

After his brace at Bournemouth at the weekend, only Erling Haaland (four) has scored more goals than him in the Premier League this season (three). But while he ranks second for goals, he is all the way down in 34th for expected goals, with just 0.98. He is in ruthless form in front of goal.

That said, it’s worth noting that he is catching the eye in part because he is scoring such, well, eye-catching goals. After his excellent flicked volley against Leeds and a well-taken header to open the scoring this weekend, he pounced on a goalkeeping error to lob Djordje Petrovic from distance for his third of the season.

These finishes do speak to a man bursting with confidence, but they aren’t exactly the most reliable source of goals. It will be interesting to see how long this streak goes on because if it does, he may well be earning Brentford’s next big pay cheque.

Hull Can Challenge For Europe

Hull City have been a revelation since their return to the top flight, and at Chelsea this weekend, if not quite their best result, it was probably their best performance so far.

They responded brilliantly to going a goal down and quickly fought back to take a completely unexpected lead into the break, with Mohamed Belloumi the first visiting player to score twice in the first half of a Premier League game at Stamford Bridge since West Brom’s Matheus Pereira in April 2021.

And even after conceding a second-half equaliser, they had chances to win it. Had they scored, nobody could have argued that they didn’t deserve it.

They came away with a hugely impressive draw, meaning they have eight points from their first four Premier League games this season; only two newly promoted sides have earned more (Nottingham Forest in 1994-95 and Bolton Wanderers in 2001-02 – both 10).

There’s no way manager Sergej Jakirovic will be getting ahead of himself, but they are well on their way to securing their safety, and based on how well they are playing, some fans may have started dreaming of even better.

Hull are third in the table and deserve to be there. They won’t be there at the end of the season but they are certainly playing like one of the best teams in the league at the moment. Stranger things have happened than a team like Hull qualifying for Europe.

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