Six Knee-Jerk Reactions to the Premier League Weekend

We’re back with our weekly dose of knee-jerk reactions to the weekend’s Premier League action, based on stats that we *might* have taken a little out of context.

Here at Opta Analyst, we prefer to use numbers to provide detailed analysis of top-level football, but every once in a while a stat pops up or something happens that gets us thinking.

And sometimes context isn’t entirely necessary. At least, that’s our excuse for writing this weekly column of knee-jerk reactions to the goings on in the Premier League this weekend.

So, we’re back once again with a dose of hastily-made conclusions following another eventful round of fixtures. Here goes…

We Don’t Need to Worry About the Premier League’s Competitiveness

You might think that four consecutive titles for the Abu Dhabi-backed Manchester City or the fact that all three promoted clubs were relegated last season is a bad sign for the Premier League.

You might also worry that three teams still being without a win nine games into the season is another indication that there is too big a gap in quality between the top and bottom of the league. They are legitimate concerns.

But then this weekend happened to give us hope that the Premier League hasn’t lost its competitive edge.

Nine of the 10 games were either drawn or won by the odd goal, including top-of-the-table City at home to bottom-of-the-pile and winless Southampton. Erling Haaland’s early opener in that game would have naturally got everyone assuming City would put five or six past their lesser opponents, but Saints fought back admirably, and Cameron Archer nearly nicked a point, only to strike the crossbar when clean through on Ederson’s goal.

Meanwhile, there were a few surprise results elsewhere as Crystal Palace beat Spurs, Aston Villa were held by Bournemouth, and West Ham beat Manchester United.

What do you mean “City won the xG battle 2.95 to 0.21 and they’ll just stay top of the league for the rest of the season, yet again?”

Quiet, you. Tight games and a few surprise results this weekend prove there’s nothing to worry about…

Arsenal Are Resilient Enough to Survive This Injury Crisis

There was a bit of a debate going on last week about whether or not what Arsenal were enduring actually amounted to an injury crisis. Whatever the truth was then, it’s fair to say that a defensive crisis is now here.

They will have William Saliba back for their next game after the Frenchman missed Sunday’s 2-2 draw with Liverpool due to suspension, but there could be a few upcoming headaches for manager Mikel Arteta. Arsenal lost both Gabriel Magalhães and Jurriën Timber to injuries in the second half on Sunday, while Riccardo Calafiori and Takehiro Tomiyasu are both already injured, too.

It isn’t yet clear how bad any of those players’ injuries are, but with away games against Newcastle, Inter and Chelsea in the space of the two weeks before the next international break, any absence of more than a week could have major consequences for their season.

But that said, there were positives to take out of Sunday’s performance. Arsenal played the last 15 minutes of the game with a back four of Thomas Partey, Ben White, Jakub Kiwior and Myles Lewis-Skelly, which very much isn’t a title-winning defence. And yet, while Mohamed Salah scored an equaliser against that defence, there’s nothing embarrassing about conceding to him, and the goal was the only shot Liverpool had once Timber had gone off in the 76th minute.

Arsenal haven’t quite been the team they can be without Martin Ødegaard, but they are showing an impressive level of resilience of late. And while their upcoming fixture list doesn’t exactly look kind, they are capable of making their way through it while remaining in the title race.

Crystal Palace Can Battle Their Way Out of Trouble

“Dr Tottenham” was trending on X last week. The implication being made by those using the name was that if there was one opponent who could cure winless Crystal Palace’s problems, it was Spurs.

Most sensible observers assumed that this version of Tottenham – who impressively trounced West Ham last week – would be strong enough to see off a team that were on a run of three consecutive defeats and had themselves “fixed” winless Everton when they threw away a lead at Goodison Park last month.

But this is Tottenham we’re talking about, and on Sunday, Palace took the game to their opponents, who couldn’t handle the pressure and intensity of the home side’s out-of-possession game.

Somewhat uncharacteristically, Palace produced 19 high turnovers – defined as winning the ball within 40 metres of the opposition’s goal line. It was by a distance their highest total in a Premier League game this season and the fourth-highest by a team in any match. Two of the three highest totals have been produced by Tottenham, but they were played at their own game at Selhurst Park and they didn’t like it one bit.

The performance means 30.6% of all of Palace’s high turnovers for the season came in this one game, and they scored what proved to be the winner after forcing Micky van de Ven into an error and winning the ball off him deep in Spurs territory.

This wasn’t a win that resulted only from ‘Dr Tottenham’ doing his job. Palace forced his hand, and with it they proved they have more than enough quality to battle their way out of trouble.

Nicolas Jackson Can Be a Chelsea Great

Anyone playing alongside Cole Palmer is going to be at a huge advantage, and Nicolas Jackson was again the beneficiary of Palmer’s brilliance on Sunday, but even so, it’s time to start taking Jackson seriously in his own right.

It was Palmer’s sensational first-time through ball that led to Jackson’s opener at Stamford Bridge, a goal that took the Senegal international to six Premier League goals for the season and 20 in total for Chelsea.

Only four players have reached 20 Premier League goals for Chelsea in fewer games than Jackson (44), but none of his have been penalties. Exclude all penalties from this list and he jumps up to third, behind only Diego Costa and Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink.

Looking through the players who have been quickest to the landmark for Chelsea, Jackson is above plenty of club legends. He has had his fair share of critics since joining – largely because he sometimes struggled in front of goal last season, scoring 14 Premier League goals from 18.6 xG – but he seems to have overcome those issues this season.

He looks much more accomplished in front of goal with his six goals coming from 6.0 xG, and he is causing opponents problems with his all-round game. Only four players have been directly involved in more goals in the Premier League this season than him (nine).

Under Enzo Maresca, Chelsea appear to be heading in the right direction and Jackson, still only 23 years old, can be a key part of a bright future at Stamford Bridge. One day, we could be calling him a Chelsea legend.

Brighton Are Too Committed to Entertaining

After 87 minutes of their home game against winless-in-eight-games-and-second-from-bottom Wolves on Saturday, Brighton led 2-0. With Arsenal and Chelsea playing on Sunday, they were headed for the Premier League’s top four.

Wolves then pulled a goal back from a corner and the foundations were built for a grandstand finish.

While few fans enjoy watching their side sit on a lead, Brighton’s supporters probably would have understood if they had dropped back to try and protect their position for the last few minutes of this game.

But even if Brighton weren’t going to do that, there is surely a happy medium between putting 11 men behind the ball and doing this in the 93rd minute:

Three minutes of stoppage time remained, and four Brighton players (supported by two more behind them) piled forward in search of another goal. But Mats Wieffer passed the ball straight to the only defender, Tommy Doyle, and Wolves raced up the other end to score an equaliser.

Brighton have been one of the most entertaining teams in the top flight over the last few years, but this was commitment to their bit in the extreme. There’s still a time to go all Chris Hughton, lads.

The (Not-So) New Injury-Time Rules Are Fantastic

There’s much about the modern game that infuriates just about everyone who watches. For example, it wasn’t only Manchester United fans and their now-former manager Erik ten Hag bemoaning the interference of the VAR late on in their defeat at West Ham on Sunday.

Meanwhile, the number of yellow cards being given out is frankly getting a bit ridiculous. Sixty were dished out across this weekend’s 10 games, including a record seven in the first half of Aston Villa vs Bournemouth.

But one thing we won’t be complaining about is the number of late goals. There were a record five result-altering goals in second-half injury time this weekend, and there have now been 21 scored in the 90th minute of games this season. Those goals make up 8.0% of all goals so far in 2024-25, the second-highest rate after last season.

It’s all a great deal of fun, and we’re here for lots more late drama. Not all change is bad.

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