By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-07-18 17:28:13 | Updated at 2026-08-03 00:14:07
3 weeks ago
England have reached the quarter-finals of the FIFA World Cup, but they now face a dangerous Norway side in the last eight. Here is what they need to do to progress.
After three weeks of hard graft, comebacks and late drama, England will face Norway in the quarter-finals of the 2026 World Cup this weekend.
Thomas Tuchel’s side have enjoyed one of the easier routes to this point of the competition, but it hasn’t exactly felt simple for them getting here.
Regardless, Norway will still be a step up.
The Vikings’ squad is headlined by superstar Erling Haaland, and he is supported by seasoned Champions League regulars like Martin Ødegaard and Julian Ryerson, among others.
Norway are more than capable of beating England on their day, but if Harry Kane and Co. do these six key things, they will have every chance of progressing to the semis.
Stop Haaland
Morgan Rogers put it best.
“Has anyone ever stopped Erling Haaland?” he asked a reporter at England’s pre-match press conference. “I don’t think they ever have, but we’re going to try.”
The point here isn’t that England know they haven’t got any chance of keeping Haaland out, just that the players are aware as anyone that there’s every chance they won’t stop him. Few teams do.
The Manchester City forward has scored 27 goals in his last 14 competitive outings for Norway, scoring in every one of those games, including in all four of his appearances at the 2026 World Cup. He could become the first player to score in each of his first five games at the tournament since Colombia’s James Rodríguez in 2014, and the first European player since Germany’s Gerd Müller in 1970.
The thing with Haaland is that he can spend long periods doing not very much at all, which can lull defenders into thinking they have things under control. He is averaging just 24.8 touches per 90 at the World Cup, which is the third-lowest rate of any player to have played at least 300 minutes, yet he is second to Lionel Messi for goals scored with seven. Only a handful of players have covered a higher proportion of ground by walking than him at this World Cup (40.3%).
He comes to life in the key moments. Of his 18 shots, 17 have been taken first-time. The only shot he has had that wasn’t a first-time hit was his emphatic finish from the edge of the area to make it 2-0 against Brazil. His average of 0.24 xG per shot is the highest of any player to have had 10+ shots at the World Cup. Without being consistently involved, he is a colossal and constant threat.
As Rogers later said, it might be a better idea to “try and stop how the ball goes into him and how he gets his chances” rather than trying to stop Haaland himself.
Cut Out the Middle Man
One of the main routes to Haaland is through their midfield maestro, Martin Ødegaard.
The Norway captain recorded an assist in each of his first three World Cup games, becoming the first player to do so since Germany’s Michael Ballack in 2002. Only Brahim Díaz, Bruno Guimarães and Michael Olise have set up more goals at this World Cup than him.
He also plays a key role in progressing the ball through the lines. Ahead of the quarter-finals, he was joint first at the World Cup for passes that broke the opposition’s defensive line while under high pressure (an opponent within 2m), with seven.
His tally can only be matched by Olise (who has played a game more than the Norwegian before this round) and Enzo Fernández. Ødegaard has also played more passes into the opposition’s box in North America than any other Norway player (20). His passes might not necessarily be going to Haaland, but they are key to finding their talisman close to goal.
Keeping Ødegaard quiet could be the key to victory. If England are unable to stop the problem that is Haaland, they could look to extinguish the fire at its source.
Go On the Attack (Down Norway’s Right)
While England will most certainly have to be wary of the vast threat carried by Haaland and Ødegaard, they will also need to commit to attacking, too. There is every reason to expect Haaland will find the net once again, so the plan has to be to score at least twice.
Norway are far from infallible at the back. They scored (12) and conceded (nine) in all of their first five games at the 2026 World Cup and, if they win while conceding here, they would become only the second side ever to reach the semi-finals of the competition having scored and conceded 10+ goals (also Germany in 1954). In short, they have made it this far because of their attack, not their defence.
Some important caveats are needed here, though. Brazil only scored against them with a last-gasp penalty, and four of the goals they have let in came with a second-string side playing against one of the best teams in the world, France.
However, they also conceded the only goal Iraq scored before crashing out, twice to Senegal and once to the Ivory Coast. And there might just be a bit of a pattern that is worth Tuchel noting.
Norway have conceded three open-play goals from crosses down their right side: one vs each of Iraq, Senegal and France. Ahead of the quarter-finals, no other team has conceded more from a specific side of the pitch at the World Cup. They have also faced more shots from crosses (within 10 seconds of the cross) at the World Cup than any other team (22).
England, meanwhile, lead the 2026 World Cup (alongside Egypt) for headed goals, with four. They have scored three goals from crosses from their left. Anthony Gordon could play a key role, then.
Balance Intensity With Conserving Energy
It wouldn’t be a World Cup without the climate or location playing some part.
Against Mexico in Mexico City last time out, it was the altitude that was supposedly going to be England’s biggest problem. In Miami this weekend, it’s going to be hot.
When the game kicks off at 5pm local time, the temperature is set to be 33 degrees Celsius. Typically for Florida, it will be humid, too. According to the BBC’s weather forecast, it will actually “feel like” 43 degrees at kick-off.
Tuchel has spoken about wanting his team to play like a Premier League team. “The Premier League is a very physical league, a very direct league,” he said in his first press conference as manager. “We should be proud enough of the culture and the style of English football to implement this. We have to increase the intensity in our games. I want to have more ball recoveries in the opponent’s half.”
There has been an impressive intensity to their play at the 2026 World Cup, and without it, they wouldn’t have got this far. They certainly would not have raced into a two-goal and ultimately match-winning lead against Mexico.
England are the seventh most active pressers at the World Cup ahead of this round and rank second of the eight remaining sides, with a PPDA of 10.2, behind only Spain (8.7). And England’s numbers will be skewed by the fact they sat back for so long with 10 men against Mexico. Only two sides have applied fewer pressures in the opposition’s half in a game at this tournament than England did that night (82) – nine-man Qatar vs Canada and lowly Cape Verde vs Spain.
There will be a temptation to try to press Norway into submission this weekend. They should stick to the gameplan for the most part, but there also needs to be some recognition of the conditions. England will need to try to rest when they have the ball, and press intelligently rather than relentlessly.
Mop Up Second Balls
Norway aren’t a limited footballing side by any stretch of the imagination, but they are happy to go long to get up the pitch, and the decision to play 6-foot-5 Alexander Sørloth on the right flank is a reflection of precisely that.
Only Paraguay (49) and Australia (28) have played more goal-kicks into the opposition’s half at this World Cup than Norway (26), while their most common line-breaking-pass combination is goalkeeper Ørjan Nyland to Sørloth.
If England press high, Norway will be more than happy to boot the ball towards their two giants up the other end of the pitch. From there, winning duels and second balls will be crucial.
England have the second-best duel success rate of any team at the World Cup (54.5%), while Norway (46.2%) rank fourth from bottom, ahead of only Austria, New Zealand and Haiti. England also rank seventh for aerial duel success rate (56.7%).
But it is one thing winning the first contact; more important will be securing possession by mopping up the second balls. It’s exactly the kind of thing at which their midfield three excel; Elliot Anderson (26) ranks seventh for possession regains at the World Cup, while Jude Bellingham (20) and Declan Rice (18) aren’t too far behind even though the latter was rested for one game.
The job those three do without the ball will be key to England’s chances.
Use Their Tournament Experience
England need to draw on their previous successes in major tournaments to overcome their opposition. Who would’ve thought we would be able to say that when, 10 years ago, they were getting dumped out of Euro 2016 by Iceland?
Following the appointment of Gareth Southgate after Euro 2016, England have returned to the sharp end of major international tournaments. Their worst performance in either a World Cup or Euros since Southgate initially came in was being knocked out of the 2022 World Cup by France in the quarter-finals. They reached the final of the Euros either side of that tournament, also making it to the World Cup semi-finals in 2018.
Their progression to the last eight this time around means England have now reached the quarter-finals of the World Cup for the 11th time. Only Brazil and Germany have reached the last eight more (both 14 times).
By contrast, Norway are the new kids on the international football block. This is the first time they have made the quarter-finals of any major international competition, and their victories over the Ivory Coast and Brazil were their first two wins in the knockouts of any major tournament.
While the entire Norwegian team are making their first appearances on the world’s biggest stage, Jordan Pickford will be making his 18th for England at World Cups alone, assuming he starts on Saturday. He’ll overtake Peter Shilton as England’s most experienced player in World Cups.
Pickford, Kane and Co. know what it’s like to play under immense pressure; they need to use this experience to their advantage to overcome a Norway side who will be learning on the job.
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