Southampton vs Liverpool Prediction

Can Saints upset the Premier League leaders? We look ahead to Wednesday’s EFL Cup quarter-final clash with our Southampton vs Liverpool prediction and preview.

Southampton vs Liverpool Stats: The Key Insights

• The Opta supercomputer sees Liverpool progressing to the last four as the visitors triumphed in 79.1% of pre-match simulations.
• Liverpool have won six of their last seven meetings with Southampton in all competitions (D1).
• Since the start of last season, Cody Gakpo has three more goals in the EFL Cup than any other player (8).

Southampton will begin life after Russell Martin when they host high-flying Liverpool in the EFL Cup quarter-finals on Wednesday.

Sunday’s 5-0 hammering by Tottenham proved the final straw for Martin. The former Scotland defender was dismissed after that dismal showing left Southampton nine points adrift of safety at the bottom of the Premier League table.

Under-21s manager Simon Rusk will step up on an interim basis as Southampton search for Martin’s replacement, though there are not much tougher tasks than an opening game against the league leaders.

In a positive omen for the struggling hosts, Southampton have progressed from each of their last two games at this stage, both 2-0 wins over Arsenal in 2016-17 and Manchester City in 2022-23.

They were hammered 6-1 by Liverpool in the 2015-16 quarter-final, though, and face one of the world’s most in-form sides for a place in the last four at St. Mary’s this time around.

Arne Slot’s men are two points clear at the Premier League summit and with a game in hand on their rivals, but the Dutchman will be keen to put Liverpool’s title quest to one side as he aims to take a step closer to his first piece of silverware on Merseyside.

Liverpool managed a 2-2 draw with Fulham in their last outing on Saturday, despite having Andy Robertson sent off after just 17 minutes when the Reds were already trailing to Andreas Pereira’s opener. Cody Gakpo levelled for the 10-man hosts before Diogo Jota scored late on to cancel out Rodrigo Muniz’s inventive flick for Marco Silva’s side.

Gakpo has enjoyed this competition, too, with his eight goals at least three more than any other player since the start of last season. The Dutch forward has also had the most shots (25) and shots on target (14) of any player in the EFL Cup in that time.

Jota returned from a lengthy injury lay-off with that all-important goal against Fulham, though will not start this one after Slot confirmed he “wasn’t completely fit” following Saturday’s cameo. Federico Chiesa should get his first game-time since the EFL Cup third-round win over West Ham in September, though, while Kostas Tsimikas has also returned to training. Ibrahima Konaté and Conor Bradley remain out for the visitors, while Robertson is suspended.

Slot will also be absent from the touchline at St. Mary’s due to an accumulation of yellow cards, though Alexis Mac Allister will be available after serving his one-match suspension for the same misdemeanour.

It could be an unfamiliar backline for Liverpool, with Slot saying at his pre-match press conference on Tuesday: “I am aware of the fact that we have only four defenders available and probably the ones that have started a lot of times will not play 90 minutes for sure and maybe not even at all. So, it’s going to be either academy players that are going to get playing time or it’s going to be players that nobody would expect to see in the last line that are going to play in the last line tomorrow.”

This is the first time Liverpool have reached the last eight of the EFL Cup as defending champions, since they won the competition four seasons in a row between 1980-81 and 1983-84.

Norwich City (1962-63), Chelsea (1998-99) and Manchester United (2010-11 and 2017-18) are the only previous EFL Cup holders to reach this stage and be knocked out, with the other 18 instances seeing the champions progress.

Southampton vs Liverpool Head-to-Head

Liverpool have won six of their last seven meetings with Southampton in all competitions (D1), scoring two or more goals in all of those clashes.

Slot’s side still required a second-half Mohamed Salah double to edge past the Saints with a nervy 3-2 away win last month at St. Mary’s. That was the third time in the last four meetings that the Reds have managed three or more goals, too.

There is still hope for the hosts, however, given Southampton have eliminated Liverpool from the EFL Cup on three occasions (1960-61, 1999-00 and 2016-17). Only Arsenal (6), Spurs (4) and Chelsea (4) have done so more often.

Southampton vs Liverpool Prediction

The Opta supercomputer struggled to see past an away win on Wednesday as Liverpool triumphed in 90 minutes across 79.1% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Southampton managed an unlikely victory in 9.1% of data-led sims, while the draw – which would send the clash straight to penalties – was ranked more likely at 11.8%.

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday night, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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