Southampton vs Tottenham Prediction

We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at St. Mary’s with our Southampton vs Tottenham prediction and preview. Spurs will look to bounce back from last weekend’s collapse against Chelsea and Thursday’s poor outing in Europe.

Southampton vs Tottenham: The Key Insights

• The Opta supercomputer is backing Tottenham to pick up a much-needed victory, with Spurs winning 52.3% of pre-match simulations.
• Dejan Kulusevski could make his 100th Premier League appearance in this match, with his first also coming against Southampton back in February 2022. He has 21 assists in the league, with only Son Heung-min providing more for Spurs since his debut (24).
• Southampton have scored in each of their last 15 Premier League games against Tottenham, their longest scoring streak against an opponent in the competition’s history.

Tottenham will look to hit back from a very disappointing week when they head to St. Mary’s on Sunday to take on struggling Southampton in the Premier League.

Last Sunday, Tottenham let a 2-0 lead slip on their way to being defeated 4-3 by Chelsea at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, with much of the post-match discourse centring on under-fire manager Ange Postecoglou and his tactics.

Then on Thursday in the Europa League, Dejan Kulusevski rescued a scarcely deserved point for Spurs as they drew 1-1 with Rangers.

Their defeat against Chelsea in the Premier League leaves Spurs heading into this weekend’s game in 11th, already seven points off the top four after a run of just one win in eight outings in all competitions.

In their first 11 Premier League games this season, Tottenham faced an average of just 9.6 shots and 3.4 shots on target per game. In their last four, they’ve faced 18.8 shots and 6.8 shots on target per game.

Their defensive frailties have seen them lose 14 of their 33 Premier League games in 2024, just one fewer than they did in 42 games in 2023. They last lost 15+ league games in consecutive calendar years in 2002 (15), 2003 (20) and 2004 (15).

However, Sunday’s fixture could provide a way for Spurs to get over their poor form, taking on a side sat bottom of the league with just one win all season and already eight points adrift of safety.

Tottenham are unbeaten in their last 13 Premier League games against sides starting the day bottom of the table (10 wins, three draws) since a 1-0 loss at West Brom in May 2018. Spurs have scored 42 goals in this run, netting at least three times in each of the last eight.

Southampton have won just one of their last 28 Premier League games (six draws, 21 defeats), with their 1-0 win over Everton in November their only clean sheet in their last 27 in the competition.

Tottenham captain Son Heung-min scored a late consolation against Chelsea, and this weekend pits him against one of his favourite opponents.

Son has scored more goals (10) against Southampton than he has any other Premier League team, while he has also provided the joint-most assists against the Saints (five, level with Manchester City).

Both teams’ fortunes have been hampered by lengthy injury lists, with Spurs receiving a huge blow against Chelsea as Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven, only just returning to fitness, both went down in that game and will be absent for the foreseeable future.

Additionally, Yves Bissouma and Rodrigo Bentancur are both suspended, while Richarlison and Guglielmo Vicario won’t play until 2025.

Southampton boss Russell Martin may be boosted by the returns of Jan Bednarek and Paul Onuachu on Sunday, though the likes of Adam Lallana and Gavin Bazunu will remain absent.

Southampton vs Tottenham Head-to-Head

Southampton have lost just one of their last six home league games against Tottenham (two wins, three draws), going down 5-2 in September 2020.

Tottenham, meanwhile, have only failed to score in one of their last 22 Premier League meetings with Southampton, a 1-0 away loss in January 2020.

The last meeting between the sides was back in March 2023, when a 93rd-minute James Ward-Prowse penalty earned Southampton a 3-3 draw at St. Mary’s.

Southampton vs Tottenham Prediction

The Opta supercomputer strongly favours Tottenham to take the three points on Sunday, with the visitors coming out victorious in 52.3% of its 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Southampton badly need a win, and they come out on top 25.2% of the time. A draw, meanwhile, is rated at a 22.5% probability.

The teams’ poor starts have already left their pre-season ambitions of European qualification for Tottenham and survival for Southampton hanging by a thread.

Southampton are predicted to finish bottom with just a 3.0% chance of staying up, while Spurs’ likeliest finish is seventh, reaching the top four in just 2.3% of simulations.

Southampton vs Tottenham Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.