By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-07-18 17:28:13 | Updated at 2026-08-03 00:13:27
3 weeks ago
Can Rudi Garcia’s side breach Spain’s impenetrable defence? We look ahead to Friday’s FIFA World Cup quarter-final with our Spain vs Belgium prediction and preview.
Spain vs Belgium: The Key Insights
- Spain overcame Belgium inside 90 minutes in a convincing 58.3% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
- Belgium have failed to beat Spain in their last 11 meetings across all competitions, losing the last five by an aggregate score of 13-1.
- Spain have kept a record six consecutive clean sheets at the World Cup, going over 10 hours without conceding.
Belgium will hope they are hitting form at the perfect time ahead of Friday’s World Cup quarter-final against Spain in Los Angeles.
Rudi Garcia’s side were not entirely convincing despite topping Group G, before pulling off a tremendous comeback to beat Senegal 3-2 after extra-time in the round of 32.
Belgium followed that up with a comprehensive 4-1 thrashing of co-hosts United States in Tuesday’s last-16 clash.
With much pre-match contention over Folarin Balogun’s availability for USA, Belgium let their football do the talking as Charles De Ketelaere scored twice, before substitutes Hans Vanaken and Romelu Lukaku added one each.
Despite becoming just the second Belgian player (after Marc Wilmots in 2002) to score in three consecutive World Cup fixtures, Lukaku will likely be left out of the starting XI again here. All three of his goals at this tournament have come as a substitute, with only Cameroon’s Roger Milla (4 in 1990) ever netting more from the bench at a single World Cup edition.
Lukaku’s striking form also matches Belgium’s success in front of goal overall. Their shot conversion rate of 12.1% at this tournament is their second-highest at a World Cup on record (since 1966), only behind the 15.2% they managed at Russia 2018.
Garcia’s side are creating more chances, too, averaging 21.4 shots per game at this year’s edition (107 shots in 5 games), second only to their 24 per game in 1970.
Although Belgium appear to have clicked in attack, breaching Luis de la Fuente’s defence will be a very difficult task.
Spain kept their sixth consecutive clean sheet in Monday’s 1-0 win over Portugal, marking a World Cup record. La Roja have not conceded at the World Cup in a remarkable 10 hours and nine minutes.
Indeed, at this year’s tournament, they are averaging an xGA-per-game of just 0.30 – the lowest on record by any team in an edition of the finals.
Mikel Merino did the damage at the other end with a 91st-minute winner against their Iberian rivals, sending Spain into their sixth World Cup quarter-final. They were eliminated from their first four between 1934 and 2002 but beat Paraguay 1-0 in the 2010 quarter-finals en route to winning that tournament.
Lamine Yamal was only three years old when Spain lifted the World Cup in 2010, and he will be expected to play a large part if they are to repeat those heroics this time around.
The Barcelona winger has completed 17 dribbles at this year’s tournament. The only teenagers on record (from 1966) to complete more at the finals are Germany’s Jamal Musiala (19 in 2022) and France’s Kylian Mbappé (22 in 2018).
Behind Yamal, Rodri has recorded 80 line-breaking passes this summer, the most by a Spainish player at a World Cup since 2010, when Gerard Piqué made 86, Xavi completed 89, and Xabi Alonso provided 126.
With that pair and a fearsome defence, De la Fuente will be confident of reaching the next round.
Under his management, Spain have progressed from all six of their major-tournament knockout games. However, only two managers have ever progressed from their first seven such ties with European nations: Vittorio Pozzo (first 8 with Italy, 1934-1938) and Vicente del Bosque (first 7 with Spain, 2010-2012).
But Spain have failed at this stage before against Belgium, who eliminated La Roja on penalties in the 1986 World Cup quarter-finals.
Who will come out on top this time?
Spain vs Belgium Head-to-Head
These two teams have not met since David Silva’s double powered Spain to a 2-0 friendly victory over Belgium in Brussels back in September 2016.
In fact, Spain are unbeaten in their last 11 meetings with Belgium in all competitions, winning nine and drawing two since a 2-1 defeat at the 1980 European Championship.
Concerningly for Belgium, Spain have won their last five games by an aggregate score of 13-1.
This will be the third World Cup meeting between the pair, and the second at the quarter-final stage. As mentioned, Belgium progressed from the last-eight clash on penalties in 1986 after a 1-1 draw, with Spain winning the other game 2-1 four years later in the group stage.
Spain vs Belgium Prediction
The Opta supercomputer struggled to see past Spain progressing; they came out on top inside 90 minutes in 58.3% of the 25,000 pre-match simulations.
Belgium hold just an 19.1% chance of victory in normal time, while the draw appeared more likely in 22.6% of data-led simulations.
Including the potential for extra-time and penalties, Spain reached the last four in 69.8% of simulations by the supercomputer.
The winner of this tie will play France in the semis following their 2-0 win over Morocco in the quarter-finals.
Spain vs Belgium Squads
Spain: David Raya, Joan García, Unai Simón, Marc Pubill, Alejandro Grimaldo, Eric García, Pedro Porro, Aymeric Laporte, Pau Cubarsí, Marc Cucurella, Marcos Llorente, Mikel Merino, Fabián Ruiz, Gavi, Dani Olmo, Yéremy Pino, Álex Baena, Rodri, Martín Zubimendi, Pedri, Ferran Torres, Nico Williams, Lamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal, Víctor Muñoz, Borja Iglesias.
Belgium: Thibaut Courtois, Senne Lammens, Mike Penders, Zeno Debast, Arthur Theate, Brandon Mechele, Maxim De Cuyper, Thomas Meunier, Koni De Winter, Joaquin Seys, Timothy Castagne, Nathan Ngoy, Axel Witsel, Kevin De Bruyne, Youri Tielemans, Hans Vanaken, Nicolas Raskin, Amadou Onana, Romelu Lukaku, Leandro Trossard, Jérémy Doku, Dodi Lukébakio, Charles De Ketelaere, Diego Moreira, Alexis Saelemaekers, Matias Fernandez-Pardo.
Spain vs Belgium Predicted Lineups
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