By Daily Mail (U.S.) | Created at 2024-10-03 23:21:27 | Updated at 2024-10-04 01:31:47
2 hours ago
Kamala Harris could potentially win Georgia on the strength of a surge of newly naturalized citizens and an uptick in registered Democrats.
Georgia is considered one of the seven key swing states in the 2024 race, as Donald Trump tries to win it back after losing to Joe Biden in 2020.
Polling numbers have been positive of late for Harris, with numbers suggesting she could improve on Biden's marginal victory in the Peach State four years ago.
Boosting Harris' chances are two factors: new voter registration in the state is trending heavily Democrat and newly naturalized citizens outnumber the margin of victory Biden had in the last election.
Around 158,000 migrants are set to receive citizenship in Georgia this year; Biden beat Trump by just 11,779 votes.
Kamala Harris could potentially win Georgia on the strength of a surge of newly naturalized citizens and an uptick in registered Democrats
Steve Hubbard, a senior data scientist with the American Immigration Council, says that new citizens are often the most eager to participate in democracy.
'The naturalization process is kind of an arduous process that takes a lot of persistence,' he told WABE.
'There's lots of forms, an interview you have to complete, citizenship tests. We find that they are often very proud of that work and want to participate in the United States and its system of government.'
While there's no polling on whether these new citizens are registered or how they would vote, new registries in general trend Democratic.
Georgia has seen 120,000-plus new voter registrants from July 21 through September 8, encapsulating the first eight to ten weeks since Harris replaced Biden at the top of the ticket.
While more than half of those registrants are unaffiliated, Democrats outnumber Republicans 51,000 to 13,000.
Around 56% of those registering are under the age of 34; 20% of them turned 18 or are turning 18 in time for the election.
About 53% of the new voters registering are people of color; all are demographics that traditionally Democrat, though polling has shown Trump making headway with them in some cases.
Georgia is considered one of the seven key swing states in the 2024 race, as Donald Trump tries to win it back after losing to Joe Biden in 2020
Naturalized citizens in Georgia celebrate their new citizenship. Steve Hubbard, a senior data scientist with the American Immigration Council, says that new citizens are often the most eager to participate in democracy
Either way, Hubbard believes how new citizens vote could swing the election one way or another.
'If you're in a state where the election is very close between the two presidential candidates, that could tip easily,' he said.
A recent Fox News poll revealed Kamala Harris is taking the lead in the state of Georgia, one of the key swing states.
The vice president received 51 per cent of support from registered and likely voters in the southern state, while Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump received 48 per cent.
Harris was up 50 per cent to 48 percent among registered voters.
The poll also revealed that more Georgians see Harris as the candidate who will help the middle class and protect democracy by a three point margin each at 52 percent to 45 per cent.
In regards to the issue of abortion, Harris takes the lead with 18 points.
Trump, however, is ahead of the vice president when it comes to handling immigration, with 15 points.
A recent Fox News poll revealed Kamala Harris taking the lead in the state of Georgia
Trump, however, is ahead of the vice president when it comes to handling immigration
As for party loyalty, by a four-percentage point margin, more Democrats support Harris than Republicans back Trump, with one in five non-MAGA Republicans rooting for Harris.
Independents also favor Harris by 13 points.
According to Fox News, Harris gets her support in Georgia from Black voters, urban voters, people under 30 and women.
It comes as a poll by Harvard University on Tuesday showed a widening gap among young voters choosing between Harris and Trump.
Numbers showed that Harris was beating Trump by 31 points among people aged 18-29 who are likely to vote in the upcoming November 5 election - a dramatic switch from Harvard's survey from this spring, which had President Biden leading Trump by just 13 points among likely youth voters.
That was alarming news for Democrats at the time, who generally do better among young voters, and likely reflected the age of the then-Democratic candidate for president, Biden, 81.
After Biden dropped out of the race in July to be replaced by the much younger Harris, 59, things changed dramatically for the race and that is reflected in the young voter results.
