By Opta Analyst | Created at 2025-03-25 16:46:55 | Updated at 2025-04-04 22:30:13
1 week ago
Stat, Viz, Quiz is the Opta Analyst football newsletter. This week’s edition looks at Cristiano Ronaldo, Europe’s top five leagues, and draws in the Championship.
The final international break before the end of the season has certainly thrown up its fair share of stories.
France, Germany, Portugal and Spain advanced to the semi-finals of the UEFA Nations League with high-scoring aggregate victories over Croatia, Italy, Denmark and the Netherlands respectively, while Thomas Tuchel’s England reign got off to a double-winning start.
In this week’s SVQ we’ll be looking at international goals, particularly from Cristiano Ronaldo; you may be familiar with his work.
Fear not club football fans, we’ll also give you the latest Opta supercomputer numbers from Europe’s top five leagues. With just two months of the season remaining, what can we expect in England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain?
There’s also an international quiz and an Ask Opta question about draws in the Championship.
If you haven’t done so already, you can subscribe below for free to receive SVQ every Tuesday.
STAT – Ronaldo’s Still Got It
They say 30 is the new 20. Well, people who have just turned 30 say that, no-one else really.
Few footballers have made a mockery of age quite like Cristiano Ronaldo. The Manchester United and Real Madrid legend turned 40 last month, having continued to score goals through his 30s, and he added another on Sunday when he found the net for Portugal in their 5-2 home win over Denmark in the Nations League.
It brought his grand total of international goals to 136, comfortably the most of any player for their country.
However, even if you just count the goals Ronaldo has scored since he turned 30 in February 2015, he still stacks up tremendously well with anyone else.
In fact, only seven men’s national teams have a top scorer with a higher career tally than Ronaldo’s post-30 record alone.
Who knows? Maybe 40 can be the new 20.
You can read even more on Ronaldo’s latest achievement here.
VIZ – Predictions Across Europe
We appreciate the Opta supercomputer, and the supercomputer appreciates us, which is why it’s always happy to spit out some numbers at our request, and we thought it was time to ask it about the title races in each of Europe’s top five leagues.
In the Premier League, it’s pretty much all over bar the shouting. Liverpool sit top with a 12-point lead with just nine games remaining. Arne Slot’s men have a 99.2% chance of lifting the title, with Arsenal only catching them in 0.8%.
Over in Spain, things are much more competitive in La Liga, though Barcelona are heavily fancied by the supercomputer despite being level on points with Real Madrid. Their game in hand gives them the edge, finishing top in 71.5% of simulations, while Madrid overtake them in 26.1%. Atlético Madrid (2.4%) have seen their chances plummet after back-to-back defeats to Getafe and Barcelona.
In Serie A, it looked like it could be a close tussle between Inter, Napoli and Atalanta, but things have opened up a little in the last few weeks. Inter are heavy favourites with a three-point lead, and win the Scudetto in 84.2% of current sims, while Antonio Conte’s Napoli do so in 13.3%. Atalanta are now six points off the top, and only scrape those points back to finish first 2.4% of the time.
It seems Harry Kane might finally win a trophy in Germany. Bayern Munich have a six-point lead over Bayer Leverkusen with eight games remaining and go on to win the Bundesliga in 94.4% of sims. Xabi Alonso’s Leverkusen are only able to overturn that deficit and defend their crown 5.6% of the time.
Finally, in Ligue 1, PSG are going to finish top. No ifs, ands or buts (unless you mean buts as in French for ‘goals’). Luis Enrique’s impressive side have a 19-point lead with eight games left and win the title in France in all 10,000 simulations (100%).
QUIZ – Youngsters Thrive for England, Republic of Ireland and Greece
We’ve gone international for this week’s quiz, though admittedly haven’t strayed too far. Answers at the bottom of the page.
1. Myles Lewis-Skelly (18y 176d) became England’s third youngest goal scorer with his debut goal against Albania, after who?
2. Evan Ferguson scored his fifth goal for Republic of Ireland in the UEFA Nations League home win over Bulgaria. Who are the only two players to have netted more for the Boys in Green before the age of 21?
3. Prior to Tuesday’s game with North Macedonia, Craig Bellamy is still yet to taste defeat as Wales manager and is on the longest unbeaten run at the start of a Dragons manager’s tenure. How many games?
4. With his goal against Scotland aged 17 years and 124 days, Greece’s Konstantinos Karetsas was the youngest player ever to score in the UEFA Nations League, surpassing whose record when he netted for Spain against Czechia in June 2022 (17y 304d)?
5. Reece James’s strike against Latvia was England’s first direct free-kick goal since Trent Alexander-Arnold in October 2024 (vs Finland), and the first at Wembley Stadium since which former Liverpool player scored in April 1993 (vs Netherlands)?
Ask Opta
This week’s question comes from Chad Lischkge, who asks: “I was looking over the Championship table and noted the inordinate number of draws and how many more there are compared to the Premier League. Is this an outlier this season, or typical of past seasons?”
Do you have a stats-based football question you want to Ask Opta? If so, send it to [email protected] and we’ll do our best to provide you with the answer in a future edition of SVQ.
Answer:
There have been 132 draws in the Championship this season after 456 games (28.9%).
Compared to recent seasons, that is quite a lot, yes. In fact, it’s already more draws than there were in the whole of last season’s Championship campaign, not including the play-offs (129 from 552 – 23.4%).
At this rate, it would be the most since the 2018-19 season, when there were 162 draws in total in the second tier (29.4%), while there were 172 in 2015-16 (31.2%).
Also, by comparison, there have been 72 draws in the Premier League this season in 289 games (24.9%). That would actually be the most since 2017-18, when there were 99 draws (26.1%).
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Quiz Answers
1. Aged 17 years and 124 days, Greece’s Konstantinos Karetsas was the youngest player ever to score in the UEFA Nations League, surpassing whose record when he netted for Spain against Czechia in June 2022 (17y 304d)?
Gavi
2. Evan Ferguson scored his fifth goal for Republic of Ireland in the win over Bulgaria. Who are the only two players to have netted more for the Boys in Green before the age of 21?
Robbie Keane (7) and David Connolly (6)
3. Craig Bellamy is still yet to taste defeat as Wales manager and is on the longest unbeaten run at the start of a Dragons manager’s tenure. How many games?
Seven (W4 D3)
4. Myles Lewis-Skelly (18y 176d) became England’s third youngest goal scorer with his debut goal against Albania, after who?
Wayne Rooney (17y 317d in September 2003 vs Macedonia) and Michael Owen (18y 164d in May 1998 vs Morocco)
5. Reece James’s strike against Latvia was England’s first direct free-kick goal since Trent Alexander-Arnold in October 2024 (vs Finland), and the first to do so at Wembley Stadium since which former Liverpool player in April 1993 (vs Netherlands)?
John Barnes
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