State of Play – Presidential Battlegrounds Part I: The Sun Belt

With Election Day approaching in just one week and early voting underway in most states, an unprecedented and frankly unpredictable 2024 election cycle has reached its final chapter. 

It has been nearly two years since former President Donald Trump announced he was mounting a comeback bid to return to the White House.

Trump, now the Republican nominee for the third time in a row, stands closer than ever to becoming just the second president in American history to be elected to two nonconsecutive terms.

As of Tuesday afternoon, leading betting website Polymarket gives the 45th president a two-in-three chance of defeating Democratic nominee Kamala Harris to become the nation’s 47th president. Rival prediction markets also consider Trump to be the odds-on favorite. 

At the same time FiveThirtyEight, a website known for being more bearish on Trump’s 2024 chances, gives him a 53% chance of completing the comeback which many observers once thought to be improbable. 

This week, RealClearPolitics reported that Trump became “the first Republican candidate to hold the lead in” in its national polling aggregate “for an extended period of time since George W Bush in 2004.” 

Just days earlier, CNN polling expert Harry Enten similarly observed that Trump may even become the first Republican nominee to win the popular vote in two decades.

Make no mistake, the election is still not over, and Harris still has a path to victory, albeit a narrower one than Trump. 

The two kinds of battlegrounds

Due to the nature of our electoral system, as chosen by the framers of the Constitution, the paths for both candidates run through the same group of seven battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. 

Political analysts generally divide these states into two groups, based on a variety of factors, including geography, culture, and voting history to name a few.

Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina have been dubbed the “Sun Belt” battleground states, while the other three swing states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin, are often referred to as the “Rust Belt” battlegrounds.

The latter three states are also frequently known as the “Blue Wall” due to their history of almost exclusively supporting Democrats in the past several election cycles – apart from 2016, when all three states narrowly backed Trump. 

Polls and prediction markets show that Trump is generally in a stronger position to win all or most of the Sun Belt states – while the Rust Belt trio remains more closely contested by both candidates. 

As of Tuesday, Polymarket gives Trump at least a 67% chance of winning in each of the four warmer battlegrounds.

The Sun Belt is key if Harris is to win the election in an upset. If she is to lose all of the Sun Belt states, but wins the Rust Belt trio, she would end up with exactly 270 Electoral Votes, the bare minimum to win the presidency. 

Winning in the Sun Belt could provide Harris with a sort of “insurance policy” if she is to come up short in Pennsylvania, widely considered the most likely of the Rust Belt states to break for Trump. 

Conversely, if Trump sweeps the four Sun Belt swing states (or he wins all of them except for Nevada), he would only have to carry any one of the Blue Wall states to win the race.

Together, the four Sun Belt swing states account for a combined 49 electoral votes – slightly more than the collective 44 Electoral Votes of the three colder battlegrounds.

Arizona (11 electoral votes)

One can make the argument that if Trump loses in Arizona, he will likely lose the election.

Indeed, the Grand Canyon State is tied with Georgia as the battleground where Trump is most likely to prevail per Polymarket – who currently gives the Republican a 74% chance of capturing its 11 electoral votes.

Demographics 

Arizona is the only one of the seven swing states to border Mexico, and has a population that is 31.6% Hispanic or Latino, according to a 2023 U.S. Census estimate.

Furthermore, the 2020 U.S. Religion Census (USRC) found Arizona’s population to be 21.29% Catholic, ranking it third among the 2024 battlegrounds, and second of the Sun Belt swing states.

Voting history

Arguably the most ancestrally Republican of the battlegrounds, Arizona had for many decades almost always voted for the Republican presidential candidate.

In the 17 presidential elections from 1952 to 2016 inclusive, a plurality of Arizona voters had backed the Democratic nominee only once – in 1996, in which then-incumbent President Bill Clinton carried the state by just over two points. 

Then in 2020, Joe Biden carried the state by just over 10,000 votes, or 0.31% of the vote. Arizona had the election’s smallest margin by number of votes, and second smallest (behind Georgia) by percentage of the vote.

Over the previous several election cycles before 2020, Arizona seemed to be generally trending leftward. Some observers have partially attributed this to the surge of newcomers moving there from blue states, namely California.

In 2004, George W. Bush carried the state by double digits, and it went red in 2008 and 2012 by 8.5% and 9.1% respectively.

Then in 2016, Trump only bested failed Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by 3.5% there – accounting for an over five-point swing leftward from four years prior. 

State of play

However, there is reason to believe that the state is reverting to its previously Republican form – and the recent trends of Hispanic and Catholic voters toward Trump a possible reason for this. 

Arizona’s status as a border state may also be a factor as polls consistently show that significantly more voters trust Trump than Harris to handle the ongoing migrant crisis.

FiveThirtyEight’s Tuesday polling aggregate showed Trump with a two-point lead there – his most of any swing state.

Two polls released Tuesday showed Trump with a significant lead in the state. An AtlasIntel poll showed him with a four-point lead while a poll from the Phoenix-based firm Data Orbital showed Trump up a stunning eight points in Arizona.

On the other hand, a poll from CNN/SSRS showed Harris with a one-point lead – within the margin of error – in the state.

Georgia (16 electoral votes)

Polymarket shows Georgia tied with North Carolina as the swing state which Trump is most likely to carry – again with a 74% chance of securing its 16 electoral votes.

Demographics

Per a 2023 U.S. Census estimate, Georgia’s population is just about one third (33.2%) black or African American – the highest percentage of the seven battleground states. 

Polls have consistently shown that black voters – a reliably Democratic voting bloc for the better part of the last century – are trending toward the Trump-led Republican Party. 

Some polls even suggest that Trump may be on track to receive the highest percentage of the black vote of any Republican nominee in the past several decades.

An additional 11.1% of the Peach State’s population is Hispanic or Latino, per the same Census estimate.

Located squarely in the heavily Protestant “Bible Belt” of the Southern United States, Georgia is also notably the 2024 swing state with the lowest percentage of Catholics. USRC’s 2020 study found that only 8.38% of the population adhere to the faith.

Voting history

Like Arizona, Georgia voted for the Biden-Harris ticket in 2020 by a razor-thin margin, following a prolonged streak of the state voting Republican.

The Democratic ticket carried the state by just shy of 12,000 votes, accounting for 0.23% of all votes cast in the state.

Like in Arizona, before 2020, the last Democratic nominee to carry Georgia was Bill Clinton, a Southerner. 

However, unlike the reverse case in Arizona, Georgia went blue in Clinton’s 1992 victory (by less than a point), and returned to the Republican column during the 1996 election (by just under a point).

Before the 1960s, Georgia, at the time considered part of the “Solid South,” voted Democratic in almost every presidential election. However, since 1972, it generally backed Republicans with the sole exceptions being 2020, 1992, and the two elections where Jimmy Carter, the state’s former governor and “favorite son,” was the Democratic nominee. 

State of play

While the fact that Georgia is relatively racially diverse compared to other battleground states may have benefited Democrats in the past, 2024 is no ordinary cycle – and what many analysts consider to be a potentially “realigning election.”

The Trump camp hopes that their candidate’s relative success with winning over minority voters would be key to the Republican reclaiming Georgia’s electoral votes.

The 2022 midterm elections in the state show that more black Georgia voters in particular may be open to voting Republican. 

During his reelection victory two years ago, Republican Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp more than doubled his support among black voters from four years earlier. His opponent both times was Stacey Abrams who is black. 

The Biden-Harris administration’s heavily criticized response to Hurricane Helene – which tore through the Southeast in late September – might also prove to be critical in determining what candidate Georgia voters back.

The devastating storm caused at least 33 deaths in Georgia – the third highest of any state after North Carolina and South Carolina.

Trump is currently 1.8% ahead of Harris in Georgia, per FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate.

An AtlasIntel poll showed the Republican with a three-point lead in the state. Trump and Harris were tied in Georgia according to a Marist College poll.

Nevada (6 electoral votes)

While Nevada only has six electoral votes the outcome there might very well make the difference between a second Trump term and a Harris presidency.

For example, imagine a scenario where Trump loses one of Georgia or North Carolina to Harris. In this scenario, he wins Arizona and Pennsylvania, yet Harris proves victorious in Michigan and Wisconsin. Here, the candidate who carries Nevada would win the election. 

According to Polymarket’s odds, Trump has a 67% chance of carrying Nevada – currently identical to the site’s chance of him winning the presidency.

This is a marked improvement for Trump’s odds from two weeks ago, when Polymarket essentially showed that both candidates had a 50/50 chance of winning the state.

Demographics

After Arizona, Nevada has the highest percentage of Hispanic residents of any of the battleground states. The 2023 Census estimate showed the state to be almost exactly 30% Hispanic or Latino. 

In addition, USRC’s 2020 study found Nevada to be around one quarter (24.68%) Catholic – cementing it as the swing state with the highest percentage of Catholic population.

While Nevada appears to be a rural state on a map, over 70% of the state’s population lives in Clark County in the state’s extreme south. This county includes all three of the state’s largest cities: Las Vegas and its two major suburbs of Henderson and North Las Vegas.

Clark County in particular is known for its relatively high concentration of voters who work in the service industry. Many of these voters rely on receiving tips for a sizable percentage of their income. 

In August, Trump emphasized his groundbreaking “No Taxes on Tips” policy while campaigning in Las Vegas. Trump had proposed the policy back in June. Two months later, Harris indicated she would support a similar policy despite reservations from her own party.

Voting history

Nevada’s voting history makes it unlike any of the other battleground states for two key reasons.

First of all, it was the only one of the seven states to not back Trump in 2016. In that cycle, Hillary Clinton won the state’s six electoral votes by a margin of 2.42%.

However, Nevada is also an interesting case study as it was also the only battleground state to not move to the left from 2016 to 2020. 

Four years ago, the Biden-Harris ticket carried Nevada by a margin of 2.39% – meaning the state moved 0.03% to the right – effectively staying at around the same partisan vote breakdown – between the two cycles, while the country as a whole moved about two-and-a-half points to the left.

Hispanic voters’ trend to the right might be a possible explanation for why the 30% Hispanic state bucked a trend followed by the other six swing states.

The last Republican to carry Nevada was George W. Bush in 2004 – an election where the Republican incumbent won a record 44% of the Hispanic vote nationwide.

Nevada had also voted for Bush in 2000, but voted for Democrat Bill Clinton twice in 1992 and 1996. 

Like its neighbor Arizona, Nevada voted Republican – mostly by landslide margins – in the six consecutive election cycles from 1968 to 1988.

State of play

Whether Nevada would break its 20-year streak of backing the Democratic presidential nominee remains to be seen, but a series of polls over the past several months have given Republicans a reason for optimism.

In May, when Biden was still the Democratic candidate, a New York Times / Siena poll made headlines when it showed the sitting president down by double digits to Trump in the state.

While Trump has not polled nearly as well in the state against Harris, he is still leading her there in multiple polls.

FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate on Tuesday had Trump and Harris effectively tied – Harris having a miniscule 0.1% lead.

Meanwhile, a recent AtlasIntel poll and a CNN/SSRS poll both had Trump up one point in the state.

It is also worth noting that on Monday, the Nevada Supreme Court ruled “that non-postmarked mail-in ballots cast in the battleground state can count for the 2024 presidential election – even if they are received three days after Election Day,” CatholicVote reported.

North Carolina (16 electoral votes)

Like its neighbor Georgia, North Carolina has 16 electoral votes. Also like Georgia, Polymarket gives Trump over a 70% chance of winning there – with the exact percentage as of Tuesday being 73%.

Demographics

According to the 2023 Census estimate, North Carolina’s population was 22.1% black and 11.4% Hispanic or Latino.

USRC’s 2020 report determined that 8.90% of North Carolinians were Catholic – the second smallest percentage of any battleground state.

Voting history

Of the seven battleground states across both groups, North Carolina was the only one which voted for Trump in the 2020 election. 

Trump had won the state by just over one percentage point, down from the 3.66% margin by which he had carried North Carolina four years prior.

In 2012, Republican nominee Mitt Romney had won the state by two points over then-incumbent President Barack Obama. Obama had carried the state by 0.31% of the vote in 2008 – his smallest margin of victory in a state that cycle. 

North Carolina was the only state to vote for Obama in 2008 but not in 2012. Before Obama’s initial victory, the last Democrat to carry the state was Jimmy Carter in 1976.

However, like Georgia, before the late 1960’s, North Carolina was an overwhelmingly Democratic state part of the “Solid South.” 

North Carolina is also unique among the battleground states as it is the only of the seven to hold its gubernatorial elections at the same time as presidential elections. The other six all instead elect their governors in midterm election years.

Although Trump narrowly carried the state in both 2016 and 2020, in those same election cycles, Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper won the concurrent gubernatorial elections.

In North Carolina’s 2024 gubernatorial election, Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein is the odds on favorite to defeat scandal-plagued Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, with almost all forecasters rating the race either “Likely Democratic” or “Safe Democratic.”

As Trump is the overwhelming favorite to carry the state for a third consecutive time, a significant number of North Carolina voters are poised to split their tickets, voting Democratic for governor and Republican for president.

State of play

One month ago, western North Carolina was ravaged by Hurricane Helene. The storm uprooted communities and resulted in 99 confirmed deaths in the state, as of Tuesday.

Last week, CatholicVote reported that many North Carolina residents remained without a home weeks after Helene’s rampage. 

Like in Georgia, the widely lambasted response of the Biden-Harris administration’s Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to areas in North Carolina hit by the storm may be a factor in the battleground state.

On Tuesday, The New York Post reported that according to a WRAL survey, “roughly 20%” of North Carolina residents “say they’ve been ‘personally impacted’ by Helene, and Trump leads by a point with that group.”

“Among those who were not affected, Harris has the 1-point lead,” the Post added.

WRAL is a Raleigh, North Carolina-based affiliate of NBC.

FiveThirtyEight’s Tuesday polling aggregate showed Trump with a one-point lead in the Tar Heel state.
A Marist College poll and an Emerson College poll both found Trump to have a two-point lead in North Carolina. An AtlasIntel poll showed Harris with a one-point lead.