By The Straits Times | Created at 2024-11-21 00:56:09 | Updated at 2024-11-21 10:13:47
9 hours ago
MANILA – Six powerful storms late in the season that ravaged crops and drenched vast areas of the Philippines have put the nation on track for record rice imports and raised concerns over elevated food inflation.
From the end of October to mid-November, the storms repeatedly dumped heavy rain over northern regions grappling with widespread flooding and saturated soil that could not absorb any more water. The onslaught caused at least US$131 million (S$176 million) of crop losses, with rice bearing the brunt of the damage.
The last time six tropical cyclones impacted the Philippines over a three-week period was in 1946, according to President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, who said rice imports may climb to a record 4.5 million tonnes in 2024 to fill supply gaps.
The peak of the nation’s typhoon season is typically July through October.
“We don’t have anything to harvest any more because of the storms,” said Mr Jespher Villegas, a rice farmer in the town of Gonzaga in Cagayan province.
His entire crop was submerged by floodwaters and rain is continuing in the region, he added, with his corn and a tilapia fish farm also affected.
The Philippines is on the front line for typhoons in the Asia-Pacific, with around 20 tropical cyclones forming each year near the archipelago.
Some storms make landfall, and some can track towards other countries in the region, soaking coffee crops in Vietnam and shutting stock trading in Taiwan.
Warm seas helped to fuel the most active season in the Western Pacific in seven decades in November, stirring up four typhoons, all of which made landfall in the Philippines.
Even before the latest string of tropical cyclones, storms had sapped third-quarter growth and reduced rice production.
Ruined rice
Nearly 600,000 tonnes of rough rice crops have been ruined by storms in 2024, according to the Philippines’ Department of Agriculture’s disaster management centre.
More than half was destroyed by Severe Tropical Storm Trami, which hit the major rice-growing region of Cagayan Valley in October.
Cagayan Valley and Central Luzon, which account for a third of the nation’s rice output, are two regions that were heavily drenched by the six storms.
Prolonged rainfall can lead to a favourable environment for “grain-sucking rice bugs” that can attack at any time, the weather bureau warned.
The main rice crop is harvested in the last quarter of the year, and Agriculture Undersecretary Christopher Morales estimates annual output in 2024 may dip by about one million tonnes from 2023 to around 19 million tonnes.
Still, imports are expected to remain elevated in 2025.
Overseas purchases could be between 4.5 million to five million tonnes in 2025 to cover crop losses and higher consumption from a growing population, said Mr Oscar Tjakra, senior analyst for Rabobank in Singapore.
The Philippines imported 3.6 million tons in 2023, according to government data.
Food inflation
“There’s high potential for more rice imports given disruptions to local rice production, which poses upside risk to food inflation and downside risk to economic activity,” said Mr Angelo Taningco, chief economist at Security Bank Corp. in Manila. The storms have also impacted tourism, construction, manufacturing, transport and retail trade, he said.
Gross domestic product growth in 2024 will likely come in below the Marcos government’s target of at least 6 per cent, he added.
Other crops have been destroyed by weather in 2024, including more than 350,000 tonnes of corn and over 112,000 tons of vegetables, according to figures from the government.
Warmer temperatures caused by El Nino earlier in 2025 contributed to the damage, which has been exacerbated by recent storms.
Supply shortfalls risk boosting inflation, which accelerated in October on price gains in rice and other food items.
To combat further hikes, the government is considering importing fish and vegetables, Agriculture Assistant Secretary Arnel de Mesa said on Nov 19.
On Nov 15, President Marcos said: “There’s a lot of rice and other crops that have been destroyed and we just have to compensate for that.” BLOOMBERG
