By Axios | Created at 2024-09-22 19:36:24 | Updated at 2024-09-30 07:25:10
1 week ago
Election day is on the fast-approaching horizon — and recent polls are showing Vice President Kamala Harris gaining ground. With under seven weeks to go until the polls close, party surrogates are searching for any boost that could decide the swing states battle.
Here's what you may have missed when newsmakers hit the airwaves this Sunday, September 22.
1. Graham: Nebraska electoral vote reform a tossup
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) took a trip to the Cornhusker state last week intending to secure one more possible electoral vote for former President Trump — through a crunch-time upheaval of Nebraska's vote allocation system.
The latest: Graham told NBC's Kristen Welker on "Meet the Press" that the odds of a change before November are 50-50, noting two holdouts who have not backed the effort.
State of play: Nebraska and Maine are the only states that don't apportion their electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis — rather, they divide a portion of the votes based on who wins each congressional district.
- Harris is likely poised to pick up the swing congressional district around Omaha. That single electoral vote could prove consequential depending on how other swing states break down.
- Trump said in a social media post earlier this year that a change to a winner-take-all system would be "right for Nebraska."
- Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen (R) supports the switch but said he would not call a special session to reconsider the state's apportionment of votes without the support of 33 senators.
What he's saying: "To my friends in Nebraska, that one electoral vote could be the difference between Harris being president or not, and she's a disaster for Nebraska and the world," Graham said Sunday.
- Graham responded to criticism from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), who on Thursday contended Republicans "always try to change the rules at the last minute."
- "If they changed the law in Nebraska it won't be on the phone in the middle of the night — it would be through the democratic process," Graham said.
2. Harris' post-debate poll bump
Several major Sunday shows donated a chunk of air time to a common theme — new polls that show Harris surpassing Trump.
Why it matters: While polls aren't a guarantee of how the electorate will vote, they do provide a gauge of how voters are feeling.
Driving the news: Polls issued from Fox News, NBC News and CBS News all show Harris with a slight edge over the former president.
- In NBC's poll, Harris holds a 49% to 44% lead over Trump.
- CBS found Harris leading 52% to 48% nationally, and 51% to 49% in battleground states.
- Fox News' poll shows Harris with a 50% to 48% lead over Trump. The poll also found Trump leading Harris 50% to 48% in battleground states.
- All polls were taken after the Sept. 10 debate between the two candidates. Fox News' results were within its margin of error.
Zoom out: Before President Biden left the race, Trump held a 45% to 43% advantage in July, per NBC polling.
- Harris being placed at the top of the ticket has now flipped those numbers in NBC's polling, led in part by a large gender gap.
What they're saying: "There's a pretty pronounced gender gap at this point. Harris among women is leading in our poll by 21 points. Among men, Trump is leading by 12. That is a 33-point gender gap. That's enormous," Kornacki said.
Yes, but: When polled on issues like the border, inflation and the economy Trump still wins.
- "The question politically is, can she do well enough to sustain this very slight edge in what is — I gotta sort of reiterate this if I can — still a really close contest. Cause even when you look state by state everything is razor tight. It can go either way," Anthony Salvanto, CBS News' Executive Director of Elections and Surveys said on "Face the Nation."
3. Tester lone Harris holdout among Democratic senators
Montana Sen. Jon Tester (D) is still refraining from endorsing Harris.
Driving the news: In a clip aired on "Inside Politics Sunday," Tester told CNN's Manu Raju that holding off on an endorsement isn't because it would be detrimental to his embattled campaign.
Friction point: Democrats have prioritized protecting Tester's endangered seat in a state won definitively by Trump in 2020.
- Whichever party wins Montana will likely control the Senate in 2025.
- Cook Political Report changed its race rating for the matchup between Tester and Republican Tim Sheehy earlier this month from "toss-up" to "leans Republican."
What he's saying: "I want to talk about Montana," Tester told Raju Wednesday. "I'm running against a guy from Minnesota that doesn't know Montana."
- Asked if Harris' policies were too liberal for Montana voters, he replied, "That's for the people of Montana to decide on."
More from Axios' Sunday coverage:
