By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-09-11 08:34:59 | Updated at 2026-09-19 01:44:08
1 week ago
Can Mikel Arteta’s champions make it four Premier League wins in a row? We look ahead to Saturday’s clash with our Sunderland vs Arsenal prediction and preview.
Sunderland vs Arsenal: The Key Stats
- Arsenal are the heavy favourites for this clash with Sunderland, winning 65.1% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
- Sunderland have only won one of their last 29 Premier League meetings with Arsenal.
- Arsenal are looking to win their first four games in a top-flight season for the sixth time.
Arsenal will hope to maintain a perfect start to their Premier League title defence when they visit Sunderland on Saturday night.
Mikel Arteta’s reigning champions swept aside Coventry City in their opener before battling past Aston Villa and Chelsea. The Gunners will now aim for four straight wins to start a top-flight campaign for the sixth time in their history.
Arsenal finished second on the last two instances they opened with four victories, in 2004-05 and 2022-23, but won the league on the first three occasions (1930-31, 1947-48, 2003-04).
It is early doors, but Arteta’s side have certainly matched pre-season expectations so far. Morgan Rogers’ second-minute opener for Chelsea did give them a scare in their last league outing, but goals from Kai Havertz and Martin Ødegaard secured a 2-1 comeback triumph.
Havertz, who has two goals in three league games, is also doing the hard yards off the ball. He has covered more distance than any other Premier League striker this season (32.9 km), while only Fulham’s Gonzalo García (52) has made more sprints among strikers than the German’s 50.
In behind Havertz, Declan Rice continues to impress, with added competition after Bruno Guimarães’ arrival. The England midfielder’s 40 line-breaking passes in the final third are the most of any player in this season’s competition.
Arteta seems to have added more creativity, too. Having sold Gabriel Martinelli, Christos Tzolis claimed his first league assist by setting up Ødegaard’s emphatic winner last Sunday, albeit with the help of an excellent Havertz dummy.
Only Chelsea’s Rogers (9) has created more open-play chances than Tzolis’ eight in top-flight action this campaign. But while the Greek winger seems an exciting addition, there has been no change to Arsenal’s excellent defensive record.
Arsenal have conceded the lowest expected goals (xG) of any Premier League side in 2026-27, allowing just 0.93 through three games. The Gunners have faced six shots on target, with only their next opponents – Sunderland – limiting opponents to fewer (5).
Arteta will also have to contend with a familiar face for this trip to the Stadium of Light, meeting former Arsenal captain Granit Xhaka. He leads all Sunderland players in the Premier League this season for touches (243), chances created (7), passes played into the box (26), fouls won (8) and successful passes (163).
Régis Le Bris’ side have made a decent start to this campaign, too. Despite late disappointment in a 2-1 loss to Ipswich Town, Sunderland responded with a 1-0 home win over Fulham before Saturday’s credible 1-1 draw away to Brentford.
Enzo Le Fée’s late penalty secured a share of the spoils in West London, but Sunderland may be glad to return to Wearside for this fixture considering their impressive home record.
Le Bris’ team only lost four top-flight games at home in the 2025-26 season. They have also won their last two Premier League home matches against London teams, beating Chelsea on the final day last campaign and Fulham on Gameweek 2.
Overcoming the champions will be a tough ask, however, and Sunderland have not won three top-flight matches in a row at the Stadium of Light since early in 2012. All those victories came against City sides (Manchester, Swansea, Norwich).
In terms of team news, Habib Diarra is the only long-term absentee from Sunderland’s first-team starters. He sat out Tuesday’s 1-0 victory over Hull City in the League Cup third round.
Arteta’s options remain unchanged. William Saliba is out long-term, while Cristhian Mosquera and Jürrien Timber both missed Arsenal’s 1-0 victory in their UEFA Champions League opener against Napoli on Wednesday.
Sunderland vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
History is not on Sunderland’s side here. They have won just one of their last 29 Premier League meetings with Arsenal (D10 L18), going winless in 17 since a 1-0 victory in November 2009.
Indeed, Arsenal have lost only one of their last 14 league visits to Sunderland (W8 D5). The Gunners have won five of their last seven such trips, although Brian Brobbey’s acrobatic late finish snatched a 2-2 draw in this fixture last season.
This will also be just the second Premier League campaign that Arsenal have faced Sunderland as reigning champions. They beat the Black Cats 3-1 at home and 4-0 away in the 2002-03 campaign under Arsène Wenger.
Sunderland have overcome Premier League champions four times at home, albeit against different opponents on each occasion.
They downed Manchester United (1996-97), Manchester City (2012-13) and Chelsea (2015-16) before their most recent such win against Leicester City in 2016-17. Can they add a fifth scalp on Saturday?
Sunderland vs Arsenal Prediction
The Opta supercomputer struggled to see past more success for Arsenal – they claimed all three points in a massive 65.1% of 25,000 pre-match simulations.
Sunderland were afforded just a 13% chance of victory in the same data-led sims, while the draw – and a repeat of last season’s result – came in at 21.8%.
Sunderland vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups
Sunderland: Robin Roefs, Nordi Mukiele, Kevin Danso, Dan Ballard, Reinildo Mandava, Granit Xhaka, Noah Sadiki, Nilson Angulo, Enzo Le Fée, Thomas Meunier, Brian Brobbey.
Head coach: Régis Le Bris
Arsenal: David Raya, Ben White, Ezri Konsa, Gabriel Magalhães, Riccardo Calafiori, Declan Rice, Myles Lewis-Skelly, Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard, Christos Tzolis, Kai Havertz.
Head coach: Mikel Arteta
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world, and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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