By 90min | Created at 2024-11-26 03:02:03 | Updated at 2024-11-26 05:55:33
2 hours ago
November still has its icy grip around the calendar, the festive rush of fixtures has not even begun and the yellow ball is safely locked up. But the Premier League title may already have been decided.
Liverpool's 3-2 victory over Southampton on Sunday afternoon, coupled by Manchester City's shock 4-0 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur one day earlier, opened up an eight-point chasm at the Premier League summit. After 12 games of last season, eight points separated the top seven.
Arne Slot is not getting carried away. As the Dutch coach was quick to point out, Arsenal had an eight-point lead over Manchester City in April 2023 and still conspired to finish second that year. But what does the cold logic of Opta's supercomputer say about Liverpool's chances of going all the way?
Erling Haaland was dejected after Manchester City's defeat to Tottenham / Naomi Baker/GettyImages
Using a combination of betting market odds and Opta's in-house power ranking system, the statistics provider simulates every remaining fixture 10,000 times to provide a prediction for the final Premier League table. In more than three quarters (76%) of those outcomes, Liverpool lift the top flight title.
The Reds started the season as third-favourites, considerably adrift of defending champions Manchester City and back-to-back runners-up Arsenal. However, a run of five straight defeats - including three in the Premier League - has left Pep Guardiola's all-conquering outfit with just a 15.4% chance of winning a fifth straight title.
The convincing nature of City's losses to Bournemouth, Sporting CP, Brighton and Tottenham (twice) has seen the club's statistical ranking take a significant hit. For the first time in 624 days, City were not rated as the best club side in the world by Opta following the dismal defeat to Spurs on Saturday.
Arsenal managed to break out of their own slump, putting Nottingham Forest to the sword in a rare return to fluency at the Emirates Stadium on Saturday. The Gunners are just one point behind City, but are considered half as likely to win the title (7.7%).
Chelsea boast the exact same record as their London rivals. Enzo Maresca's expensively assembled squad strolled to an easy win over Leicester City to kick-start the weekend and bolster their outside chance of an unlikely Premier League title.
Tottenham, Newcastle and surprise package Brighton are the only other clubs in the division with a non-zero chance of finishing top. The Seagulls are level on points with Arsenal and Chelsea, cementing the club's best-ever start to a top-flight campaign with a 2-1 victory over Bournemouth on Saturday.
The travelling fans serenaded their players with chants about a return to European football, but manager Fabian Hurzeler would not entertain any such talk. "I don't listen so they can sing what they want," he sniffed. If his side continue to romp through the season, Brighton's fans may start singing about even greater ambitions than Champions League qualification.
1. | Liverpool | 76.0% |
2. | Man City | 15.4% |
3. | Arsenal | 7.7% |
4. | Chelsea | 0.6% |
5= | Tottenham | 0.1% |
5= | Brighton | 0.1% |
5= | Newcastle | 0.1% |
