Swing-State Showcase: Everything You Need To Know About The Race In Michigan

The 2024 presidential election, along with control of the U.S. House and Senate, could come down to how voters cast their ballots in the vital battleground state of Michigan. 

Michigan, with its 15 electoral votes, has been a major focus for the campaigns of both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Voters in the state are also casting their ballots in pivotal House races and a high-profile showdown for the U.S. Senate, where Republican Mike Rogers is running for an open seat against Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin. 

Here’s everything you need to know about the races in Michigan.

Polling

Polls have had the battle between Trump and Harris in Michigan close since Harris became the Democrats’ de facto nominee in late July. Harris has led Trump in the Great Lakes State by as many as 2.4 points, but Trump regained a small lead in the polls in October, according to the RealClearPolitics average. The two candidates are neck-and-neck with just a week until the election. 

CHECK OUT THE LATEST POLLING ON THE DAILY WIRE’S ELECTION HUB

How Michigan Has Voted In The Past

Democratic presidential candidates have recently dominated Michigan, winning the state in seven of the last eight elections. Trump’s 2016 victory in Michigan over Hillary Clinton is the only Republican presidential victory in the state since 1992. 

What The Candidates Are Saying

Both candidates and their running mates have campaigned heavily all over Michigan. During Trump’s stops in Michigan, the former president has focused much of his attention on the economy and car manufacturing, promising voters that he will restore Michigan’s long history of auto dominance. 

During a speech at the Detroit Economic Club earlier this month, Trump said the tax deduction on car payments would “revolutionize” the car industry and “stimulate massive domestic auto production.” The former president added that the policy would “make car ownership dramatically more affordable for millions and millions of working American families.” Trump has also vowed to end the electric vehicle mandate issued by the Biden-Harris administration. 

Harris, on the other hand, has attempted to convince Michigan voters that she is the unity candidate, leaning on former Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney who recently moderated a town hall in Michigan with the vice president. Harris has attempted to paint Trump as extreme and a “fascist,” telling Michiganders at the town hall, “Listen to the report that — what his former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, a general, said about him: that he is ‘fascist to the core.’” 

Michigan Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who won re-election in 2022, was on Harris’ running mate shortlist before Harris decided to pick Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. Similar to Harris’ decision to pass over Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, her move to go with Walz over Whitmer could have implications in the vital swing state.

What Early Voting Shows

Mail-in and early voting are expected to play a big part in the election in Michigan as the state has already reported near-record-breaking early votes. Throughout the state, more than 1 million absentee ballots were cast as of October 22. That represents 16% of Michigan’s active voters. More than 2.2 million Michigan voters requested or received absentee ballots for the 2024 election, which is just shy of the total number of absentee ballot requests in 2020. 

Michigan’s voter rolls list 8.4 million registered voters, but that’s nearly 500,000 more people than the total number of voting-age residents in the state.

The inflated voter rolls in Michigan, a vital battleground state in the 2024 election, are one of the largest imbalances in the country, Bridge Michigan reported.

When Can We Expect A Result?

Michigan Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson said earlier this month that results in Michigan might not be known until around 24 hours after polls close. 

“We do have more options to process ballots sooner than Election Day, which is where we were restricted in 2020, so I’m optimistic we could see results even sooner,” Benson said. “But I would estimate end of the day on Wednesday as the best guess on how we’ll perform.”

What Counties To Watch

The three counties in Michigan to watch on Election Day are Wayne County, Oakland County, and Kent County. Wayne is the most populous county in the state and usually the Democrats’ biggest stronghold. If Vice President Harris has a good night in Michigan, it will be evident by how big her margin is in Wayne County. 

Kent County, a strongly Christian area of the state, is the biggest bellwether county in the state. It went for Biden by 6 points in 2020 after Trump won the county by 3 points over Clinton in 2016. 

Oakland County, just north of Wayne County, has become more blue over the past decade but still holds a heavy concentration of Republican voters. President Joe Biden won the county by 14 points in 2020, which far outpaced Hillary Clinton’s 8-point margin in the county in 2016. While Trump doesn’t necessarily have to win Oakland County to win Michigan, the Republican nominee does need to see numbers closer to 2016. 

Along with Michigan’s three key counties, the state also has a key demographic of voters who have become increasingly frustrated with the Democratic Party: Muslims. Michigan’s large Muslim population, centered in the cities of Dearborn and Hamtramck, has historically voted for Democrats, but with the ongoing war between Israel and terrorist groups Hamas and Hezbollah, many Muslim leaders have come out against the Biden-Harris administration’s policies.

Harris has tried to court Muslim voters in Michigan, meeting with Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud over the summer, but Harris’ efforts have seemingly failed as many Muslims say that they will not vote this year in the presidential election, The Washington Post reported. The mayor of Hamtramck, Amer Ghalib, along with multiple Muslim leaders in Michigan have even endorsed Trump.

Around 250,000 Muslims live in Michigan, according to 2020 national census data. Biden took Michigan in 2020 by just over 154,000 votes.

Voting Issues From 2020 To Now

Wayne County’s ballot counting was a major focus during and after the 2020 election. Two Republican members of the Wayne County Board of Canvassers initially blocked the certification of the county’s election result, citing discrepancies in the poll books. After outrage from Democratic leaders in Wayne County, the two Republican Board of Canvassers members reversed their votes, approving the county’s results. 

Conservatives also criticized Wayne County election officials after thousands of absentee ballots were counted late into the night, most of which went for Biden, pushing him past Trump in Michigan. 

The Republican National Committee sued Michigan Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson over the inflated voter rolls earlier this year, along with filing lawsuits over other election-related issues in the state, but Benson’s office dismissed the concerns, arguing the lawsuits “lay the groundwork to overturn the results of the election if they don’t like them.”

Other Races To Watch

Michigan’s Senate race between Rogers and Slotkin, along with multiple tight House races in the Great Lakes State, could help determine control of Congress. Slotkin, a Democratic congresswoman, is leading Rogers in the Senate racy by 3 points in the polling average, according to RealClearPolitics. Republicans haven’t held a Senate seat in Michigan since 2000. 

For the U.S. House races in Michigan, two seats currently held by Democrats and one seat held by a Republican are considered “toss-ups,” according to Decision Desk HQ. Republicans are looking to pick up seats in the 7th District — which is Slotkin’s current seat — and the 8th District, which is currently held by Democrat Dan Kildee who is retiring. Democrats, meanwhile, are hoping to snag the seat from Republican John James in the 10th District.