Swing-State Showcase: Everything You Need To Know About The Race In Nevada

Nevada counts for just six of the 270 electoral votes a presidential candidate needs to win, but with a Republican governor and two Democratic senators, the purple state is likely to play an outsized role in picking the next administration.

Nevada is the smallest toss-up, and yet has attracted over $250 million-worth of election ad spending this cycle.

The GOP is fighting for influence against a powerful Democratic machine built over decades by Harry Reid, former U.S. Senate majority leader, with outside led by tech titan Elon Musk attempting to balance the field for Republicans.

Here’s everything you need to know about Nevada.

Polling

Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump are running essentially even in Nevada. FiveThirtyEight’s polling average has the race in a dead heat. Real Clear Politics is slightly more favorable for Trump, giving him a 0.5-point lead over Harris in its polling average.

Nevadans’ top issue is the economy. Roughly a third of likely voters in the state pointed to the economy or inflation as their top issue for this year’s election, according to an August New York Times/Sienna poll. The next two issues of abortion and immigration were named by 14 percent of voters each.

How Nevada Has Voted In The Past

In over a century, Nevada’s choice for president has only twice not won the White House: in 1976 when the state chose Republican Gerald Ford over Democrat Jimmy Carter, and in 2016 when Nevadans chose Hillary Clinton over Trump.

In recent history, the state has leaned Democratic in presidential elections; 2004 was the last year Nevada voted for a Republican for president. In 2016, Clinton won the state by 2.4 points. In 2020, Biden beat Trump by roughly the same margin, a difference of less than 34,000 votes in a state with roughly 3.2 million people.

Nevada has recently favored Republican executives on the state level. Since 1999, a Republican governor has presided over Nevada for all but four years. Democrat Steve Sisolak held the office from 2019 to 2023. Sisolak lost to Nevada’s current governor, Republican Joe Lombardo, in 2022.

What The Candidates Are Saying

While both Harris and Trump have prioritized other swing states over Nevada, each has made several passes through the southwestern state. Harris has campaigned in Nevada three times so far this year, while Trump has paid four trips to the state, according to Axios.

Nevada’s largest economic drivers are tourism and gambling industries that are worth billions of dollars every year and support the state’s robust hospitality sector, which, as the state’s largest employer, accounts for about a quarter of Nevada’s workforce. Trump and Harris’ targeted campaigns for those voters have resulted in a rare example of agreement: a pledge to exclude tipped income from federal taxes.

Trump was first to make the “No Tax On Tips” pledge, announcing it during a rally in Las Vegas in June. He even credited a waitress at his Las Vegas hotel with giving him the idea. Harris, who effectively took over the Democratic nomination after President Joe Biden dropped out in July, announced her own version of Trump’s policy in an August Las Vegas rally.

What Early Voting Shows

Early voting in Nevada began on October 19 and runs through November 1. Republicans showed strong in early numbers and have kept their advantage, posting leads in both Clark and Washoe counties over Democrats by roughly 2,000 votes and 300 votes, respectively, by October 27, according to The Nevada Independent’s Jon Ralston.

When Can We Expect A Result?

Election results for Nevada will begin rolling in the night of, with preliminary results beginning to be posted depending on when polling places close. The outcomes in most races are expected to be known the night of October 5. For close races, mail-in ballots counted in the days following October 5 may mean the difference between two candidates. By state law, all mail-in counting must be completed within four days of election day.

What Counties To Watch

Clark and Washoe are Nevada’s most populous counties. Strong showings in both by either party could signal success on election night. Nevada has a sizable independent voter base that could swing outcomes, however.

Voting Issues From 2020 To Now

The Nevada Supreme Court delivered an opinion on Monday that spelled defeat for Republicans in the state and the Republican National Committee. The court ruled that non-postmarked ballots received by election day can be counted up to three days after election day.

Nevada’s mail-in ballot operation exploded in 2020 after the state loosened election laws because of the COVID-19 pandemic. State law holds that ballots postmarked by election day may continue to be counted up to four days after the election.

Other Races To Watch

In the battle over Nevada’s Senate seat, the Democratic incumbent Rosen is polling ahead of Brown. Real Clear Politics’ polling average places Rosen 4.9 points ahead of the Republican challenger. In six polls tracked by FiveThirtyEight prior to October 28, five show Rosen leading by four to 15 points. One survey, an OnMessage poll taken on October 19-22 and funded by the GOP-aligned Senate Opportunity Fund, shows Brown and Rosen tied.

Nevada’s Senate race was identified early as a potential Republican pickup. Nevada’s other senator, Catherine Cortez-Masto, narrowly won her reelection in 2022 by fewer than 8,000 votes.

Brown is running behind Trump in the purple state in part due to facing an opponent who is better established and better financed. If Brown wins, this would be his first role in elected office. Rosen has successfully leveraged her network of donors and the state’s Democratic machine, posting higher fundraising numbers than Brown every quarter of this cycle.

Brown’s campaign has focused on tying Rosen to the Biden administration, under which Nevada’s economy has suffered severe blows. Nevada posted the highest unemployment rate of any state at 5.6% in September. It has also experienced one of the highest rates of inflation since January 2021.

In April, The Cook Political Report moved Nevada from “Lean Dem” to “Toss Up,” which Brown said at the time was “because Jacky Rosen is a rubber stamp for Joe Biden and has made things worse for Nevadans, from high prices to the open border.” He has struggled to effectively hang the current economic malaise on Rosen, however.

Rosen has leaned into the issue of abortion and campaigned as a moderate dealmaker despite her progressive track record. Heritage Action for America’s conservative scorecard has given Rosen a lifetime score of 4% when the average Senate Democratic score is 11%. Alternatively, the liberal scorecard Progressive Punch has given Rosen an “A” grade for her commitment to pushing progressive priorities while representing a swing district.

The Senate Leadership Fund, a GOP-aligned PAC that focuses on U.S. Senate races, has made a last-minute entry into the Nevada race, banking that a strong showing from Trump in the state could pull Brown to victory despite his polling deficit. The PAC will invest $6.2 million on TV, radio, and digital ads in the closing days of the race to narrow the spending gap between Rosen and Brown.

Outside of the candidates, this year’s Nevada ballot features an initiative on enshrining a right to an abortion in the state’s constitution. The measure could boost turnout for Democrats who are more favorable to abortion abortion. But Nevada is well-known as a state of ticket-splitters who lack loyalty to a political party.

The measure, if passed, would create a woman’s right to an abortion until her baby can live outside the womb, typically around 24 weeks. After the point of viability, abortion would be regulated by the state.