Swing state voters back Trump over Harris on key global questions: poll

Voters in six key swing states think former President Trump is more likely than Vice President Harris to end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, respond effectively to a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan, and advance U.S. interests internationally, according to new polling from the Institute for Global Affairs.

Why it matters: President Biden will give a farewell address to the world Tuesday at the UN General Assembly. Voters will soon decide between relative continuity with Harris, or a 180-degree turn back to a predecessor Biden has portrayed as a danger to global security.

By the numbers: Voters nationwide narrowly see Harris (52% to 48%) as better able to strongly defend U.S. interests, according to the poll. But Trump leads 56% to 44% in that category among voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

• The gap is wider in favor of Trump (58% to 42%) in the swing states on the question of who is more likely to end the wars in Gaza and Ukraine. By the same 58% to 42% margin, swing state voters see Trump as more likely to respond effectively if China makes a move on Taiwan.
• Trump also leads Harris (56% to 44%) in the swing states on his signature issue: immigration policy.
• Harris narrowly leads Trump nationally on the questions of who would respond more effectively to a major global crisis (52% to 48%) or improve America's reputation (53% to 47%). But once again those gaps are wiped out when you zoom in on the swing states.

Between the lines: Harris' foreign policy vision is less well-defined for voters than Trump's, particularly in the swing states Trump's campaign has been bombarding with messaging for months, says Mark Hannah, a senior fellow at the Institute for Global Affairs.

• "We've seen that independents in battleground states tend to prefer a less interventionist foreign policy. So the fact that voters see Trump as more likely to end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza might strengthen his popularity," Hannah notes.

Reality check: While foreign policy is arguably the area on which presidents have the most direct influence, it has not been a major issue for voters this cycle, with the exception of immigration.

Methodology: The Institute for Global Affairs polled 1,865 voting-age adults — 1,000 of them in six swing states — in the U.S. between August 15 and August 22, 2024. The margins of error both nationally and in the pooled swing states are +/-3.9%.