By The Guardian (Sports) | Created at 2024-09-27 16:40:05 | Updated at 2024-09-30 05:22:58
2 days ago
Brisbane and Sydney, the two standout teams of this AFL season, arrive at the MCG on Saturday with evenly-matched line-ups stacked with top-tier talent and increasingly similar game plans after taking very different routes to land on their style.
The Swans were the early pacesetters with 13 victories from their opening 14 matches as their star-studded midfield and blistering ball movement thrilled record-breaking crowds at the SCG. The Lions have been a slower burn after taking time to get up and running following a gut-wrenching defeat to the Magpies in last year’s premiership decider, but have returned to form at the right time with 13 wins in their past 15 matches.
The two most recent runners up will both be out to make amends for their painful defeats on the grandest stage. But with an extra year to put grand final humiliation behind them, the Swans have had enough time to evolve from their 2022 side that proved to be far from ready to take on the battle-hardened Cats.
The addition of gun forward Isaac Heeney to the onball brigade this season alongside the dynamic Chad Warner and electrifying Errol Gulden has proven to be a masterstroke. The All-Australian trio can do more damage than most midfielders near goal, while also ensuring the Swans at least match their opponents at stoppages and in contests around the field. But it is when the Swans send the ball into open spaces that the highest-scoring team in the league lights up.
Sydney are a formidable counter-attacking team as they first limit the opposition from scoring even when they do enter their forward 50 better than any other side, then hurt them going the other way with sublime skill and speedy runners. The minor premiers were near-unstoppable across the first half of the season as they sliced open the opposition with the likes of Nick Blakey charging through the corridor, but since a pre-finals slump they have taken to unpicking their rivals as much around the wings.
While Swans matches can often seem frantic as the ball moves rapidly from end to end, they still focus on maintaining possession whether through slick handball or kicking at 45-degree angles to open up the field. The Lions were able to stifle the Swans’ transitions in their round 19 encounter, as well as limiting the output of Heeney and Warner, and a repeat in the grand final could be pivotal to the result.
Brisbane prefer to play with more control but have shown in stirring comebacks against GWS and Geelong over the past two weeks that they can also put their kick-mark style aside to find a goal blitz when their backs are to the wall. Veteran Dayne Zorko will be a key to the Lions’ dash out of defence and is sure to cause havoc whether just with his run and carry or when getting under the opposition’s skin.
With Joe Daniher looming as a threat, even if the Lions can never quite be sure what they are going to get, they will also have the most dangerous key forward set to step onto the MCG. But Daniher has booted 56.47 this season to be among the worst offenders as the Lions have too often paid the price for wayward kicking for goal. Deeper forward entries and straighter kicking for goal will be critical against the mostly sharp-shooting Swans, though the Lions are also adept at locking the ball in their own half to create half-chances for the likes of Charlie Cameron and Cam Rayner.
The Lions had to come from the clouds twice to secure their grand final berth as they chased down both the Giants and Cats, though they had previously been the fastest starters in the league through the home-and-away season. The Swans on the other hand have been notoriously sluggish across opening terms, so if the Lions can open up an early lead they could be buoyed by only one side turning around a three-quarter time deficit in a grand final this century.
Game-shapers
Sydney: Isaac Heeney – the “Rolls-Royce” of the Swans engine room has finally fulfilled all of his undeniable promise while evolving from an explosive forward who can make an impact during stints in the midfield to become one of the most damaging onballers in the game. Heeney is among the leading ball-winners with an average 25.6 disposals and 5.9 clearances in 23 matches, while also booting 33 goals for the second-most of all midfielders this year only behind Warner as a one-two punch in attack.
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The Lions’ Josh Dunkley is a master of minding the opposition’s most influential midfielder while also finding plenty of the ball himself. The 191cm Dunkley matches up well against the powerful Heeney and spent most of the round 19 clash going head-to-head with the excitement machine. Heeney went goalless and only had 19 disposals in that game, for his second-lowest tally of the season, but has shown with two best afield performances in this finals series that he can deal with the closest of attention as the stakes rise. Expect Brandon Starcevich to pick up Heeney when the high-flying Swan drifts forward but he will be hard to slow down while in the form of his life.
Brisbane: Joe Daniher – the Lions key forward can entertain as much for his erratic flaws as a match-winning turn but has demonstrated in the past two finals series that he is a player for the big moments as he gets better with age. Daniher can boot a bag of goals or have an influence when roaming further up the field where he can be involved in the Lions link up play and send the ball deep into attack. At 201cm he will also spend time in the ruck to support the recalled Darcy Fort as he takes on the Swans’ combative big man Brodie Grundy.
Tom McCartin will get first crack at Daniher and mind the 30-year-old when he is starting closer to goal, though Swans stand-in skipper Dane Rampe is also likely to spend time on him beyond the 50m arc. Daniher is among the better forwards in the competition when it comes to taking his turn in the ruck, and the pressure will be on Grundy to make the most of taking on a second-stringer in the absence of the Lions’ Oscar McInerney.
Norm Smith medal tip
With this grand final set up to go either way, the medal for best on ground is equally hard to call, especially with stars across the field on both sides. But with the Swans having a slightly better spread of elite midfielders than the Lions, even if Dunkley can put the coolers on Heeney, Chad Warner should have ample opportunity to get off the chain.
Early prediction
Sydney have rediscovered something resembling their mouth-watering early-season form and have their best players fit and firing at the right time. Brisbane have done well to turn around their wobbly start to the season and proven over the past fortnight that they cannot be counted out even when giving up a commanding lead. But with gun midfielder Lachie Neale hobbled by a heel issue and first-choice ruck McInerney sidelined, the Lions might have run out of lives just as they come up against the best team of the past six months. Sydney by 11 points.
