By The Jerusalem Post (World News) | Created at 2024-12-15 23:20:07 | Updated at 2024-12-16 01:27:22
2 hours ago
The stunning victory of the Syrian rebels opens up new possibilities for a more peaceful Middle East – or it can set the stage for even more intense violence, death, and destruction.
By ALON BEN-MEIR DECEMBER 16, 2024 00:59
PEOPLE CELEBRATE in Damascus, this past Friday. It is hard to exaggerate the jubilation of the Syrian people when they heard the news about the fall of Bashar Assad, says the writer.
(photo credit: YAMAM AL SHAAR/REUTERS)
It is hard to exaggerate the jubilation of the Syrian people when they heard the news about the fall of Bashar al-Assad, ending a 52-year-old dynasty that will be remembered as the darkest chapter of the country’s existence.
How long the public’s jubilation will last and whether normalcy will be restored to a shattered country, will depend on whether the new government fulfills its promise to be inclusive, focusing on rebuilding the country and seeking peace and reconciliation, or simply replaces one ruthless dictatorship with a new one.
Perhaps it is premature to determine whether or not the rebels will keep their word with respect to their promises to be inclusive and treat every citizen equally before the law, regardless of their ethnicity. However, there are important and positive signs that the new leaders are likely to follow what they have been saying and demonstrate that they are committed to establishing responsible and legitimate governance.
To that end, the rebels have called for national unity and a peaceful transfer of power. Their leader, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, met with the outgoing prime minister Mohammed al-Jalali to discuss the transition of power to demonstrate his desire to work with experienced officials to ensure a smoother power transfer and temporarily supervise the bureaucracy.
Hadi al-Bahra, president of the Syrian National Coalition, outlined plans for an 18-month transitional period and extended his hand to help draft a new constitution and hold elections as desired by the rebel leaders.
To show their commitment to justice, the rebel leaders swore to hold accountable many army officers who were involved in torture – and to commit themselves to establishing “a state of freedom, equality, rule of law, and democracy,” as Syria’s UN ambassador Koussay Aldahhak stated.
The rebel leaders instructed their followers to preserve the state’s institutions, restore essential services, and reopen banks to ensure economic stability. They further directed their rank and file to prevent the desecration of shrines and cultural centers of many ethnic groups, including the pro-Assad Alawites, making them feel reassured and optimistic that they would not be excluded from joining the political transitional process.
Given the reign of horror that was inflicted on the Syrian people, the new leaders appear to be committed to a new beginning that the public is yearning for, not simply replacing the ruthless Assad dictatorship with a new one.
They want to write a new chapter that would end the public’s pain, suffering, and despair – especially over the past 14 years since the outbreak of the Arab Spring – and bring hope for a better and promising future. On the whole, it appears as though a new era has dawned for Syria.
Many challenges in regime change
THESE POSITIVE signs, however, are not free from the many challenges in regime change, which include integrating the armed groups into a unified structure and preserving all state institution; as well as laborious negotiations between the numerous opposition groups with different ideologies and loyalties.
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There are also concerns that hasty changes might invite other militant groups to emerge and plunge the country into civil war once again and destroy what was left under Assad.
Finally, the more troubling concern revolves around the Islamic roots of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and the question is raised as to whether or not their leader, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, who was formerly affiliated with al-Qaida, would revert to extremism. To alleviate these concerns, Julani has clarified that his severing of ties to al-Qaeda goes back several years and has pledged to pursue pluralism, ethnic equality, and religious tolerance.
What transpires domestically will affect foreign powers, especially Turkey, Iran, and Russia, which have vested geostrategic interests in Syria. How the rebel leaders navigate between these rival powers will have significant repercussions for Syria and its place in an unstable region ladened with conflicts.
However, the most urgent matter is for the US, and Israel in particular, to take several actions to encourage the new Syrian leadership to pursue what they have publicly promised – despite the competition for greater sway with the new leaders in Damascus – and maintain the initial social, economic, and political steps they have taken.
The United States should first remove HTS from the terrorist list to send a clear message that it is willing to demonstrate its initial trust that the new Syrian leadership will indeed do as promised. Since legitimacy is critical to the new leadership, the US should offer diplomatic recognition, conditional upon the rebels’ commitment to democracy and the rule of law.
In addition, the US should engage in back-channel diplomacy to discuss regional security and offer cooperation. The US could provide economic assistance by first removing the sanctions that date back to 2012, assisting in the efforts to recover funds stolen by Assad himself and his government, and supporting reconstruction efforts, which can significantly help improve living conditions and stabilize the country.
Finally, the US could offer technical know-how and training for civil society organizations and help promote independent media and democratic institutions.
By taking these and other measures, the US can demonstrate its commitment to supporting the Syrian peoples’ aspiration for democracy and the prospect of growth and prosperity while addressing the US concerns over regional stability.
Israel established red lines
TO PREVENT any potential conflagration with the new Syrian government, Israel has established three red lines for the rebels, daring them not to cross these. They include: 1) not letting chemical weapons fall into the hands of jihadist rebels; 2) preventing Iran from deploying Iranian troops to rebuild any military installations on Syrian territory; and 3) no hostile forces deployed near the Israeli border.
Israel has already taken several precautionary measures to prevent any misunderstandings, such as temporarily seizing control of a demilitarized buffer zone in the Golan Heights, bombing suspected chemical weapons sites, and implementing a curfew in several villages within the buffer zone.
Having conveyed that those are preventive measures, Israel can take several steps to encourage peaceful relationships with the new government while mitigating the rebels’ traditional hostilities toward Israel. To begin with, Israel should establish a line of communication with the rebels and extend humanitarian aid to develop goodwill.
In addition, Israel can offer economic incentives and demonstrate its interest in addressing Syria’s security concerns. By combining diplomatic outreach, strategic security measures, and financial incentives, Israel can develop a stable relationship with the new Syrian government while maintaining its security.
There are and will be several other critical issues that separate Israel and the rebels, chief among them is the future of the Golan Heights. However, whether or not the new Syrian government accepts Israel’s gestures, by taking these measures, Israel is creating a positive atmosphere that can facilitate constructive negotiations about any conflicted issue in the future.
The stunning victory of the Syrian rebels opens up new possibilities for a more peaceful Middle East – or it can set the stage for even more intense violence, death, and destruction.
The new Syrian authority must decide which way they choose to go.
One thing, however, is certain. Although other powers, especially Turkey, Russia, and Iran, have a unique interest in Syria’s future, the actions of the US and Israel will have the greatest impact on the path the new regime in Damascus will choose to travel.
The writer is a retired professor of international relations, most recently at the Center for Global Affairs at New York University. He taught courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies. alon@alonben-meir.com
