Taiwan: Ukraine's Survival Is Our Survival

The best way to stop China from attacking Taiwan is to defeat Russia in Europe. As Taiwan's former President Tsai Ing-wen said this month: "A Ukrainian victory will serve as the most effective deterrence against future aggression." Pictured: Taiwanese march in support of Ukraine, in Taipei on March 13, 2022. (Photo by Sam Yeh/AFP via Getty Images)

"We should cut off U.S. military aid to Ukraine, until our European allies step up," said U.S. Senator Josh Hawley in a February 2023 speech at the Heritage Foundation. "That won't happen so long as we're doing their job for them."

Many, if not most, Americans would agree with the senator from Missouri, but is he right?

Hawley's address was titled "China and Ukraine: A Time for Truth." The truth, however, is that the United States has an obligation to defend Ukraine — and it is definitely in its interest to do so.

Why? As an initial matter, America wants to stop the spread of nuclear weapons.

In December 1994, Ukraine agreed to give up those weapons, which it took possession of upon the breakup of the Soviet Union. In return, Ukraine received territorial guarantees from the United States, Great Britain, and Russia, contained in the Memorandum on Security Assurances in Connection with Ukraine's Accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. The document is commonly known as the Budapest Memorandum.

In the Budapest Memorandum, the three parties made six pledges to the former Soviet republic, the most important of which was "their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine."

"Some have argued that, since the United States did not invade Ukraine, it abided by its Budapest Memorandum commitments," wrote Steven Pifer of the Brookings Institution and former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, in 2019. "True, in a narrow sense. However, when negotiating the security assurances, U.S. officials told their Ukrainian counterparts that, were Russia to violate them, the United States would take a strong interest and respond."

If Russia keeps the territory it has seized — certainly if it grabs even more — countries will believe that American promises to defend them are worthless and will begin building a nuclear deterrent of their own.

Apart from ignoring America's Budapest Memorandum obligations, the let's-abandon-Ukraine crowd believes that the defense of Ukraine undermines the ability of the U.S. to discharge a more important task: protecting Taiwan. The argument is that American resources are finite and Washington has to make a choice.

"Saying that we should prioritize Taiwan over Ukraine is like arguing that a fire truck should be parked at a house down the street to guard against a fire breaking out in the future instead of knocking down the fire at the burning house," argued John Walters, president of the Hudson Institute, at an event at his think tank in April 2023.

He is right.

"Whenever you think World War III began, China is fighting it now," Kenneth Abramowitz of Citizens for National Security told Gatestone this month. "It is fighting the rest of the world in Ukraine, in Israel, and everywhere else. We have to confront bad actors everywhere they attack us. It's not like a menu at a restaurant where you only have to choose one."

There are many reasons to choose Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin, after all, will not stop there, just as he did not stop after breaking apart Georgia in 2008 or after seizing Crimea in 2014. "If Ukraine falls, Poland, the Baltic republics and other NATO member states will face existential threats," Greg Scarlatoiu, president of the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, told this publication. Then, the U.S. and its NATO partners will be even more stretched — and less able to defend Taiwan — than they are now.

China also does not stop on its own. China, for instance, took Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines in early 2012. The Obama administration, while Vice President Joe Biden was in charge of foreign policy, did not oppose the audacious Chinese seizure.

When Chinese leaders saw Washington's failure to act, they soon moved against Second Thomas Shoal and other Philippine reefs in the South China Sea, went after Japan's islets in the East China Sea, and started reclaiming and militarizing features in the Spratly Island chain. Obama and Biden legitimized the worst elements in the Chinese political system by showing everybody else that aggression worked.

China is on the move today, fighting proxy wars in Ukraine — Beijing greenlighted the invasion with its "no limits" partnership declaration just before Vladimir Putin's attack — in North Africa and in the Middle East. The best way to stop China from attacking Taiwan is to defeat its proxies, especially Russia in Europe.

"Ukraine is not going to drive Beijing's decision whether to attack Taiwan," said Elbridge Colby, who has led the charge against defending Ukraine. "Instead, what's most critical for deterring a war over Taiwan is the military balance in Asia." At this moment, that balance may or may not favor China, but the most critical factor, I think, is casualty-averse Beijing's assessment of whether America and its partners have the will to defend Taiwan.

It was, after all, a perceived failure of will that led Putin to believe he could invade Ukraine. The invasion shortly followed Biden's catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan and his weak public statements in the days preceding the attack.

It was this withdrawal that emboldened China. As Afghanistan was falling, Beijing's main propaganda narrative was that the U.S. could not hope to counter China because it could not deal with even the Taliban.

Beijing then went after Taiwan's governing organization, the Democratic Progressive Party. "The DPP authorities need to keep a sober head, and the secessionist forces should reserve the ability to wake up from their dreams," an editorial from Global Times, which is controlled by People's Daily, stated. "From what happened in Afghanistan, they should perceive that once a war breaks out in the Straits, the island's defense will collapse in hours and the U.S. military won't come to help."

Worse, China's leaders seem to think the U.S. is incapable. "It cannot win a war anymore," Lu Xiang of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences told the Global Times as the Taliban captured Kabul.

Losing Ukraine will make China even more confident in that assessment.

The Taiwanese, in fact, think that their security is closely tied to events in Eastern Europe. "Ukraine's survival is Taiwan's survival," declared Bi-khim Hsaio last year while serving as Taiwan's representative in Washington and before becoming the island republic's vice president. "Ukraine's success is Taiwan's success. Our futures are closely linked."

As Tsai Ing-wen, who stepped down as Taiwan's president in May, said on November 23, "A Ukrainian victory will serve as the most effective deterrence against future aggression."

Gordon G. Chang is the author of Plan Red: China's Project to Destroy America and The Coming Collapse of China, a Gatestone Institute distinguished senior fellow, and a member of its Advisory Board.