By New York Post (Opinion) | Created at 2024-11-27 02:06:24 | Updated at 2024-11-27 04:50:10
3 hours ago
Russian strongman Vladimir Putin is beating his chest again, hinting he may use nuclear weapons.
Don’t buy the bluffs: We’re not on the verge of a nuclear World War III.
Putin’s huffing follows reports that the Biden administration gave a limited green light for Ukraine to use US-provided, long-range missiles, Army Tactical Missile Systems, on Russian territory.
That decision comes after months of US officials foolishly avoiding Kyiv’s pleas to use them outside Ukraine’s borders.
US officials say Russia’s decision to deploy North Korean soldiers against Ukraine largely triggered the policy change.
That led Putin to reach into his old bag of tricks: He immediately threatened the West by launching an experimental intermediate range ballistic missile at Ukraine and announcing that Moscow was lowering its threshold for a nuclear response.
The White House’s decision added “oil to the fire,” Kremlin officials warned. “Russia could retaliate against Kiev and key NATO facilities, wherever they’re located . . . that means World War III,” puffed Russian politician Dmitry Medvedevon X.
No one — particularly the incoming Trump team — should fall for Russia’s psychological games; the threats are simply part of a pattern, where Putin tries to capitalize on Washington’s nuclear fears.
Russia’s own nuclear doctrine, for starters, already calls for a first-strike use of nuclear weapons when the country is invaded and occupied.
Yet that proved a hollow deterrent when Ukraine invaded Kursk in August — and no nukes were deployed.
Indeed, the Kremlin has been threatening nuclear escalation since February 2022.
Recall that Biden had been reluctant even just to send ATACMS to Kyiv, yet when Washington eventually did, Moscow’s nukes remained at home.
In 2023, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko warned of “enormous risks” if Ukraine received F-16 jets; when the West sent them anyway, it did not provoke Moscow.
In May 2024, Biden allowed Ukraine to use US weapons to hit Russian targets near the Kharkiv region; despite Putin’s bluster about nuclear retaliation and global catastrophe, Moscow once again did nothing.
Many leaders in the West know Russia has no intention of actually using nukes.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin argued that while Putin’s saber-rattling is reckless, he does not “see a change in their strategic force posture.”
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that this “irresponsible rhetoric from Russia . . . is not going to deter our support for Ukraine.”
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot dismissed Putin entirely: “We are not intimidated,” he said.
Even Russia’s own Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov, despite saying “they will react accordingly,” emphasized that Russia will do everything to avoid nuclear war.
Again, the threats are an age-old Kremlin tactic — stoking fear in Western capitals.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky understood that when he called Putin’s nuclear bluff way back in 2022, knowing Russia’s nuke talk was meant merely to manipulate Ukraine’s supporters into backing down.
Russia’s military relies heavily on deception and psychological manipulation — a Soviet-era technique called “reflexive control.”
During the Cold War, the Soviet Union used it to maintain control over American decisions, changing perceptions of the nuclear balance.
Career spy Putin understands the power of such operations and that his nuclear blackmail has previously proven effective in deterring President Biden and other Western leaders.
Team Trump shouldn’t make the same mistake.
Alas, some of them seem headed in that direction: Trump’s pick for National Security Adviser, Rep. Mike Waltz, warned that the White House’s decision to OK use of the ATACMS was “another step on the escalation ladder.”
Donald Trump Jr. tweeted that Biden was trying to sabotage his father by getting “World War Three going” before Trump could take office.
The good news? There’s significant bipartisan support for Biden’s decision.
If anything, criticism largely comes from those believing the new Biden policy is “better late than never,” as Republican Rep. Michael McCaul said. Democratic Rep. Gregory Meeks noted that “the escalation’s on the other side.”
Now that the Bidenites have at last begun to ease restrictions on Ukraine, the Trump administration must keep up the pressure — and resist Moscow’s psychological games. It must show no fear.
President-elect Donald Trump has promised to quickly negotiate an end to the war.
But strengthening Ukraine, helping it score gains on the ground and showing Putin his nuclear bluster won’t work can help bring Russia to the table and make it more willing to strike a deal Ukraine can accept.
This is certainly no time to go wobbly.
Ivana Stradner is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Jason Smart is a special correspondent for Ukraine’s Kyiv Post.
