Thailand’s Anutin at 100 days: Stability first, reform later?

BANGKOK - A hundred days after being sworn in as Thailand’s 32nd prime minister on March 20 following his re-election victory, how have Anutin Charnvirakul and his government performed so far?

Analysts say Anutin has earned cautious marks for maintaining political stability and handling an energy crisis sparked by conflict in the Middle East, though his government has yet to tackle the country’s underlying economic challenges, including sluggish growth, high household debt and an ageing population.

June 27 marks 100 days since Anutin, 59, took the oath of office. The milestone comes just over nine months after he first became prime minister in September 2025 following the collapse of the Paetongtarn Shinawatra government, before securing a fresh mandate in the February 2026 general election.

The first major test came almost immediately.

Anutin was quickly confronted with an energy crisis triggered by the Feb 28 US-Israel attacks on Iran which disrupted oil exports. That led to panic buying with some petrol stations unable to refuel fast enough and higher oil prices across Thailand.

The pressure intensified as the conflict in the Middle East led to repeated disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices above US$100 a barrel for an extended period and exposing South-east Asia’s vulnerability to maritime crises beyond its control.

To mitigate the energy crisis, the Thai government tapped the national Oil Fuel Fund to subsidise fuel prices and lower borrowing costs for farmers and industrial operators. It also ordered coal-fired power plants to run at full capacity and sought to diversify the country’s energy sources by increasing imports from the US, Malaysia and Brunei.

Mathis Lohatepanont, political science PhD candidate at the University of Michigan, believes that Anutin has managed to deal with the disruption for the time being.

“I think the government has weathered the initial storm... and managed to avoid further instability” despite early supply disruptions and sharp price increases, he told The Straits Times.

While people continue to grumble about higher fuel prices, there have been no mass protests on the streets. Analysts and observers who spoke to ST broadly agree that Anutin has weathered the storm, at least for now.

In his first hundred days as premier, Anutin has met the expectations of his Bhumjaithai Party’s significant support base and won approval from Thai voters across the board by taking a firm stance on the border dispute with Cambodia.

Anutin, whose party had won the most seats in the February general election by appealing to nationalism and advocating a hard line in the dispute with Cambodia, has continued a similar stance after becoming prime minister.

He has maintained the military’s lead role in border protection activities in order to secure the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Thailand.

As prime minister, Anutin followed through with his promise of unilaterally terminating a 2001 bilateral pact with Phnom Penh over disputed overlapping maritime boundaries. The issue has now been elevated to the UN for arbitration.

Anutin also scored an early political win by delivering on a campaign promise to roll out the “Thais Help Thais Plus” scheme, a popular subsidy programme aimed at easing household expenses while boosting consumption.

The programme allows eligible citizens to purchase selected goods from participating merchants, paying only 40 per cent of the price, with the remainder covered by the government.

Launched on June 1, the scheme is expected to benefit about 30 million citizens aged 18 and above who do not hold state welfare cards or have been excluded from previous government assistance programmes. The government has allocated 176 billion baht (S$6.8 billion) for the initiative.

“This is a popular stimulus scheme, but it is also relatively fleeting. It is too early to assess the Anutin government’s success on longer-term structural policies,” said Mathis.

Puangthong Pawakapan from Chulalongkorn University’s political science faculty agreed. She noted that many Thais recognise the scheme provides only temporary relief to ease the cost of living but but does “absolutely nothing to solve the underlying economic crisis”.

While analysts concur that Anutin has largely succeeded in preserving political stability and steering Thailand through the immediate fallout from the Middle East conflict, including a spike in energy prices, they see little evidence so far that his administration is addressing the country’s deeper structural economic weaknesses or pursuing significant reforms.

Given military coups and short-lived governments in the last two decades, Thailand has found it hard to maintain policy continuity and long-term planning, allowing structural economic problems to fester. The country faces challenges such as lacklustre economic growth, ageing demographics and high household debt, amid intensifying competition from regional rivals.

Over the last five years, Thailand has not achieved annual economic growth exceeding 3 per cent. The International Monetary Fund projects Thailand’s economy to expand by just 1.5 per cent this year, the slowest pace in South-east Asia. By comparison, Vietnam is expected to grow by 7.1 per cent, Cambodia by 4 per cent, and Myanmar by 3 per cent despite its ongoing civil conflict.

While Anutin has said that he wants to build new economic engines in areas like digital technology, artificial intelligence and clean energy, analysts have not seen a clear road map to do so.

“Its energies have gone into routine administration and day-to-day management rather than into any initiative aimed at meaningful economic or political change,” said Stithorn Thananithichot of the Political Science Faculty at Chulalongkorn University.

Stithorn also sees little evidence that Anutin’s administration is committed to reform.

He points to constitutional change as an example.

Nearly 60 per cent of voters, or almost 20 million citizens, had indicated in a referendum held alongside the Feb 8 general election that they want to change the country’s 2017 Constitution. The Charter is deemed by many as undemocratic as it was drawn up under former prime minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, who took power after a 2014 coup and was premier until 2023.

Despite the strong support, the issue of constitutional reform has seen very little progress.

“A government that intended to reform would have signalled at least one substantive structural commitment at the outset; this one did not, and that absence is by design rather than a matter of time,” said Stithorn.

Questions about reform have also been raised over Anutin’s Cabinet selections.

Among the more positively received appointments were several technocrats in key roles. Among the seven deputy prime ministers are Suphajee Suthumpun, the former Dusit International group chief executive who serves as commerce minister; veteran diplomat Sihasak Phuangketkeow, the foreign minister; and finance minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas, a former director-general of the treasury department and ex-World Bank adviser.

But critics say these appointments have been offset by several politically connected choices.

Digital economy and society minister Chaichanok Chidchob, for example, is secretary-general of Anutin’s BJT and son of the party’s founder and patriarch Newin Chidchob. Another is tourism and sports minister Surasak Phancharoenworakul, who hails from the prominent Phancharoenworakul political dynasty.

If there is one area where analysts give Anutin high marks, it is coalition management.

Led by Anutin’s BJT, the 16-party coalition government also includes former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s Pheu Thai party and the Palang Pracharath Party, which backed former premier Prayut. Together, the coalition occupies 292 out of 499 seats in Parliament.

“That kind of brokerage does not run on autopilot. It requires a prime minister willing to work hard at managing and balancing those relationships, and that is the role Anutin performs effectively,” said Stithorn.

That political stability is expected to hold for now.

“There are virtually no reports of coalition infighting and the government enjoys a healthy majority in Parliament,” noted Mathis.

However, Stithorn observes that to avoid having the coalition fall apart, Anutin has allowed policies to be shaped by certain influential groups.

“The concern is precisely that large conglomerates and established networks come to shape national policy to their own advantage,” he said.

Analysts point to Anutin’s decision to task deputy prime minister and transport minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn with handling aspects of the oil-crisis response despite his family’s interests in the fuel business

Yet despite such criticisms, analysts believe Anutin looks likely to complete his four-year term as prime minister. Thaksin was the last elected prime minister to serve a full term from 2001 to 2005. He was later ousted in a 2006 coup.

Compared with the previous Pheu Thai-led coalition government, which lasted only about two years after the 2023 election, Mathis said Anutin “certainly stands a much higher chance of surviving”.

Regardless of the Anutin administration’s shortcomings, many voters may be willing to overlook them for now. Political stability may matter more than ambitious reform.

Stithorn, referring to Thais, said: “They do not want rival political forces to regain momentum or return to power.”