By Opta Analyst | Created at 2025-04-01 14:32:35 | Updated at 2025-04-04 05:31:51
2 days ago
Which two teams will win automatic promotion from the Championship to the Premier League in 2024-25? We look at the latest projections via the Opta supercomputer.
1 April
When Joël Piroe put the seal on victory for Leeds United at Bramall Lane on 24 February, it looked like Leeds would go on to push further ahead of their rivals in the race for automatic promotion to the Premier League.
That 3-1 win over Sheffield United put them three points clear at the top of the Championship table, but more importantly gave them a seven-point cushion over third-place Burnley in the standings.
Now, five matchdays later, Burnley are level on points with Leeds, and Sheffield United have capitalised on the Whites’ collapse, leading the table by four points with just seven games remaining.
Leeds’ form over the last five matchdays has seen them win just once – a 2-0 home win over Millwall. A 1-0 defeat at Portsmouth came in among draws with West Brom, QPR and Swansea, which means Leeds have picked up only six points in this period. Both Burnley and Sheff Utd won 13 across their five games.
Following that February away win over Chris Wilder’s side, the Opta supercomputer was supremely confident of Leeds’ chance of automatic promotion back to the top flight. Back then, its confidence that they’d return to the Premier League was as high as 98.1%, but that’s since fallen to 74.0%. That still makes Leeds favourites for a top-two spot in the table at the end of 2024-25, but their recent form has rightly got fans concerned of another collapse, just like last season.
After an out-of-sorts festive period in which they won only one point from three games between Christmas Day and New Year’s Day, Sheffield United have found form at just the right time. Since beating Watford on 4 January, the Blades have won a league-high 34 points, winning 11 of their 14 games. That has seen their chance of automatic promotion move up to 72.3% today.
Burnley are only behind Leeds in the table on goal difference, which is very much down to their inability to score as many goals as Daniel Farke’s side rather than how often they concede.
Scott Parker’s team have conceded just 11 goals all season, which is not only set to break an all-time English league record for average goals conceded per game in a season (currently 0.28), but it’s also less than half the tally conceded by their rivals at the top.
Burnley’s chances of automatic promotion are now at 53.6%, but with a home game against Sheffield United coming up later this month, the battle to finish in the top two is still in their own hands.
24 February
With 12 matchdays left to play in the Championship, it looks like the race for automatic promotion to the Premier League might now be between only three clubs.
Sunderland’s shock 1-0 home defeat to Hull City at the weekend was their second loss in a row following last Monday’s late defeat at Leeds United, and they could now be out of the hunt for a top-two finish. Overall, they have won just four points from their last four games in the Championship, only beating bottom side Luton Town in that run.
This means that Sunderland won automatic promotion in just 0.9% of the Opta supercomputer’s latest 10,000 simulations – down from just under 20% following their 3-2 win over Middlesbrough in early February.
Sheffield United host Leeds at Bramall Lane on Monday night, knowing a victory will see them leapfrog their Yorkshire rivals into first place. They are currently two points behind Leeds but have won one more game than them (22 vs 21) in the Championship in 2024-25.
As things stand, Leeds are by far the biggest favourites to win automatic promotion with the Opta supercomputer. They are promoted in 94.5% of current simulations and win the Championship title 75.7% of the time.
Daniel Farke’s side have collected 72 points from 33 league games so far this season. Since 1906-07 in England’s second tier, only 15 clubs have won at least 72 points at this stage of the campaign (based on three points for a win) and all 15 have gone on to win the league title. Their points tally is still below that of both Leicester City last season (78) and Burnley in 2023-24 (73) at this stage, however.
Sheffield United are still fancied for automatic promotion, too. Chris Wilder’s side finished inside the top two in 61.7% of current supercomputer simulations – a value that will only rise if they can secure victory against their rivals on Monday.
The good news for the Blades is that none of the last 27 teams since 1919-20 to win 70+ points from their opening 33 games of a second-tier campaign (based on three points for a win) have failed to finish inside the top two at the end of the season.
The last team who failed to do so were Burnley in 1911-12, when they finished third in the table. History may repeat itself this season, with Scott Parker’s men sitting in third place despite a sensational run of clean sheets.
Burnley haven’t conceded a single goal in any of their last 12 Championship games, which is only surpassed in English professional league history by one team – Manchester United’s 14-game run in the 2008-09 Premier League season.
Burnley have only conceded nine goals across their 34 games, but their 14 draws – only one more than Leeds and Sheffield United combined (15) – could be the reason they miss out on a top-two finish. Across the current 10,000 simulations by the Opta supercomputer, Burnley win automatic promotion 42.9% of the time, and win the title in 7.2% of sims.
Like Leeds (98.3) and Sheff Utd (93.0), Burnley average more than 90 points (90.8) in the supercomputer season simulations. The only previous seasons that three different teams have won 90+ points in a second-tier campaign were 1997-98 and 2023-24.
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