The Definitive Guide To Burrito Inflation

The divide between the neoconservative Republican establishment and the insurgent populist right became even wider this week — over burritos, of all things.

Debate, predominantly online, broke out over the price of a burrito — and whether that price has risen at what would be considered a reasonable rate over time (hint: it has not). But more importantly — and something lost on many establishment free-market and neoconservative D.C. think tankers — the burrito discourse wasn’t really about burritos at all. Rather, it was about the rapid rise in the cost of living the average American has experienced over the last decade or more.

Burritogate began simply enough, with a tweet posted by Turning Point USA’s spokesman Andrew Kolvet.

“One of our TPUSA college students gave me his take on affordability: ‘A burrito shouldn’t cost $20,’” Kolvet wrote. “Yeah, a lot of this is a hangover from Covid and Biden-era inflation, but the lived experience is the same: It just feels like basic things cost too much.”

In understanding this debate, first things first. Is the cost of a burrito — I’m going to use Chipotle’s prices, since this is the price point around which much of the debate centered — actually $20? Yes and no.

The nationwide pre-tax average price for a steak burrito from Chipotle is around $11.68. However, the price jumps quickly the moment you pick any add-ons, like guacamole or the cilantro lime sauce, which can raise the price by as much as $3.15. Want double the meat? That’ll be another $5.00 or more.

In Chicago, for instance, the sales tax adds another $1.73 to $2.56 to the price. A Chipotle steak burrito in the Windy City could set you back anywhere between $16.18 and $23.91. And that is just for an order placed online from Chipotle’s website and picked up in-store. The prices get much, much worse if you’re having your steak burrito delivered by DoorDash or Uber Eats or any other courier/delivery service.

On the facts then, yes, burritos can cost $20 or more. Most Americans probably pay a little bit less than that, but let’s be real — a $15.00 burrito is pretty ridiculous when you really think about it.

By comparison, in 2011, a steak burrito from Chipotle cost — in most American markets — somewhere between $5.75 and $6.65. This data point has led to some claims that the price of a burrito has more than doubled over the last 15 years.

In 2019, on the eve of the COVID-19 pandemic, a Chipotle steak burrito averaged between $7.58 and $8.45.

Then came the pandemic, global supply-chain disruptions and the inflation surge that followed. Consumer inflation hit 7.0 percent in December 2021 and averaged 8.0 percent in 2022.

Some price growth over time is normal. But even after accounting for broader inflation, the price of a steak burrito has risen by roughly another 20 percent — still an eye-popping increase. (RELATED: Another Key Inflation Measure Blows Past Forecasts)

The data aside, the online burrito debate hit high gear when American Enterprise Institute (AEI) resident fellow and Washington Post neoconservative columnist Marc Thiessen responded to Kolvet, writing, “Cry me a river. The burritos in the college cafeteria are included in your meal plan.”

Cry me a river. The burritos in the college cafeteria are included in your meal plan. https://t.co/lQCDSW23Zy

For Thiessen — who continued doubling down on his stance in subsequent tweets — American access to fast casual dining is something that, apparently, should be accessible only to the very wealthy. Still, the Thiessen tweet was the spark that lit the fire.

Vice President J.D. Vance weighed in next: “I’m surprised to hear Mark say this. If you’ve ever met him in person, it’s quite obvious the man has never missed a burrito.”

However, it was claims made by the Daily Wire’s Ben Shapiro that sent the discourse into overdrive.

Current "common good conservative" inflation messaging: $20 burritos are a human right but also every serious methodology for making them cheaper (i.e. kill the tariffs, break the unions, and deregulate the food supply chain) isn't America First, so we need to complain a lot… https://t.co/GKST1az6jf

“Current ‘common good conservative’ inflation messaging: $20 burritos are a human right but also every serious methodology for making them cheaper (i.e. kill the tariffs, break the unions, and deregulate the food supply chain) isn’t America First, so we need to complain a lot about how America is cooked and then surrender to Iran,” Shapiro, who brands himself as someone who employs only facts and logic, wrote.

Pointing to tariffs or unions, as Shapiro did, is an old trope of the D.C.-centric establishment and free-market think tank crowd — most of whom push this view specifically because it serves corporate donor interests. The claim is demonstrably wrong.

One, under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), beef and vegetables are almost entirely exempt from tariffs (except in extremely limited edge cases that would not affect Chipotle’s pricing). Two, Chipotle is not unionized. Three, deregulation of the food supply chain in large part led to the consolidation of the meat processing industry — which a number of experts point to as being at least in part responsible for higher beef prices. (RELATED: Why The Trump Admin Shelved His Signature Trade Deal)

The Federalist’s Sean Davis, meanwhile, rightly puts a great deal of the blame for high prices across the board on the Trump administration’s war with Iran — and neoconservatives’ radical foreign policy since 2001 in general.

Watching neocons who spent nearly $10 trillion of other people’s money to prosecute wars they refused to fight melt down for days over how people with real jobs spend their own money has been quite the education. https://t.co/hcQ4WQgQKk

“Watching neocons who spent nearly $10 trillion of other people’s money to prosecute wars they refused to fight melt down for days over how people with real jobs spend their own money has been quite the education,” Davis stated.

Davis’s point is a salient one. The Iran War has caused extreme volatility in energy markets and disrupted international supply chains and shipping. This has directly led to a rapid rise in costs for consumers.

Beyond the economics of burritos, international supply chains, energy markets, and the Iran War, others have rightly pointed out that the debate is a stand-in for the erosion in “participation in social life” rather than “expectations about consumption.”

Outgoing Texas Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw — who lost his primary — best summed up the establishment stance, saying his opinion is for people to “stop whining, get a job, eat Ramen like the rest of us did in college, on a budget with 4 roommates.”

“The market doesn’t care what you think something ‘should’ cost. Only communists care (they set prices remember? Then everyone starves, remember?) Are you a communist? Or are you an American adult male capable of handling his own shit?” Crenshaw added. (RELATED: Texans Give Boot To Dan Crenshaw In Major Upset)

Many social media users have noted that Crenshaw was vocally critical of runaway price increases under former President Joe Biden’s Democrat administration but has now changed his tune with Republicans in control of the federal government.

A number of social media users have also pointed out that the trope of “eat at home and save money” just doesn’t cut it, as it fails to answer the real questions, which are: What are the cheap, egalitarian spaces that young people are supposed to hang out in? Where can they eat, drink, and be social?

Ever reasonable, the Manhattan Institute’s Christopher Rufo also weighed in, stating the obvious point:

“Crazy to see ‘free-market conservatives’ tell anxious young people to shut up and accept double-digit inflation, instead of taking the opportunity to explain that inflation is a direct result of bad government policy. It’s perfectly fine to notice that burritos shouldn’t be $20.”

Decades of overspending, loose monetary policy (think the Federal Reserve Bank’s four phases of quantitative easing), and disruptive foreign policy adventurism have played a direct role in the erosion of the economic standing of many — and mostly young — Americans. And this past week, a steak burrito from Chipotle encapsulated that fact.