The Drain Pipe: Are Swing Voters Going Extinct?

Take a dip in The Drain Pipe, your weekly guide to the Washington swamp.

Is it time to place the “swing voter” on the Endangered Species List?

When I volunteered as a precinct captain in Northern Virginia during the 2024 presidential election, I met voters of all kinds who were terrified of what the Biden-Harris administration was doing to our country and hopeful that electing Donald Trump would undo it. While I haven’t been a political operative in a while (and I don’t plan to be), it’s clear that the mood has changed.

Democrats only need three seats to flip the House, where sixteen Republican seats are toss-ups as of Oct. 16, according to the Cook Political Report. Meanwhile, they only need two seats to flip the Senate, where six Republican seats are reportedly toss-ups as of Oct. 6.

This doesn’t mean that Americans are “switching sides,” nearly as much as it could mean that they may feel that Trump hasn’t delivered the respite they were promised.

The share of Americans identifying as Republican fell 3% since last year (31% to 28%), while the share identifying as Democrats grew marginally by 1% (28% to 29%), according to data gathered by Pew Research Center from Jan. 30 through June 18. Meanwhile, those who identify with neither party rose 3% (41% to 44%).

Only 65% of Republicans say they’re certain they’ll vote in the midterms versus 72% of Democrats, according to an ABC/Post/Ipsos poll published Saturday night. The poll also found that Trump’s approval rating reached a record-low of 33%, with 75% of respondents rating America’s economy negatively.

These polls come as Trump urges voters to “pretend” he’s “on the ballot.” Sure, much of the inflation his administration is trying to tackle could’ve been caused by his predecessor, but the Iran War — which has reportedly cost the average American household $2,000 — may’ve made that a riskier request to make.

With Democrats repeatedly proving themselves to be the party of socialism and political persecution, it’s easy for Republicans to campaign on being the party of common sense. But that doesn’t mean that’ll be enough to cross the finish line. In order to meet Americans where they’re at — in the growing middle — Republicans’ receipts must show common good.

— Spencer Maximilian Lombardo

THE EXECUTIVE

Trump will hold a political rally every single day for the next seven days in Kansas, North Carolina, South Carolina, Iowa, Florida, Georgia and Michigan. Check out the whole schedule here.

Susie Wiles’ Tight Ship Is Taking On Water

Will we see CNN personality Scott Jennings take on the role of White House press secretary in the coming days, and what does that say about the inner workings of the West Wing?

Katie Zacharia’s history-making five-day tenure as press secretary was cut short in part due to Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, according to a Politico report. The report said that a surprisingly hostile interview by Sean Hannity of Zacharia had been arranged by Wiles.

Zacharia’s hiring and swift firing may be a flare-up of quieter behind-the-scenes jockeying at the White House. Four sources told Politico last week that Wiles may be on the way out. (“Susie is here and she’s gonna be here for a long time,” Trump protested.)

But Trump reportedly did not bother consulting Wiles before hiring Zacharia. Wiles had reportedly been seeking Jennings for the role.

The rumblings come amid Trump’s public frustration over work that Wiles allies James Blair and Chris LaCivita, Trump’s midterm election strategists, did for the European territory of Republika Srpska.

Some conservatives have quietly grumbled for months that the power of the trio of political operatives has left a policy vacuum in White House leadership on issues like deportations and vaccine safety. Wiles’ allies point to her leadership on tariffs and deep involvement in artificial intelligence policy.

And who knows? Wiles has survived worse press blow-ups before.

Trump’s Diesel Deal Draws Establishment Backlash

After announcing an agreement on Oct. 9 to allow Russia to import millions of barrels of diesel into U.S. and global markets, Trump waived the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act’s 100% tariff on the five largest importers of Russian energy.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whose relationship with Trump has further deteriorated after Ukraine resumed strikes against Russian diesel refineries, took to X to lament the loss of the law’s namesake — who suddenly passed away in July — last Saturday.

“It’s difficult without him [Graham], I’ll be honest,” Zelenskyy wrote. “I want to thank both Democrats and Republicans who supported his bill. That was a major victory: this truly bipartisan support. And now, the decision to undo all of this, to block all of it, seems wrong to me. And it definitely helps only the Russians. It only fuels their satisfaction and their desire to keep killing people. This certainly does not stop the war.”

Sanctions relief will continue. I think the diesel deal and the move regarding the Lindsey Graham Act are not the end of it. Unfortunately. It’s unfortunate because we all had great respect for Lindsey. He devoted his life to America. We had an excellent relationship with him. And shortly before the tragedy, Lindsey was in Ukraine. He always supported us very strongly and pushed for as much assistance to Ukraine as possible. It’s difficult without him, I’ll be honest. I want to thank both Democrats and Republicans who supported his bill. That was a major victory: this truly bipartisan support. And now, the decision to undo all of this, to block all of it, seems wrong to me. And it definitely helps only the Russians. It only fuels their satisfaction and their desire to keep killing people. This certainly does not stop the war. From answers to journalists’ questions. (1/3)

Republican South Carolina Sen. Darline Graham, who succeeded her brother, told reporters Saturday that she plans to talk with Trump this week about whether the waiver was the ideal approach to ending the Russo-Ukrainian War and driving down diesel prices.

Regardless, the responses prompted by Trump’s waiver appeared to highlight the rift between the Republican establishment and populists.

Mike Pence — Trump’s former vice president turned sworn critic — criticized Trump’s efforts to invite Russia back into global fuel markets on X last Friday.

“Putin doesn’t want peace. Putin wants Ukraine. Enough is enough, Pence wrote. “President Trump should rescind the diesel deal with Russia and use the Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia Act to impose harsh sanctions on nations purchasing Russian energy, work with our allies to ensure Ukraine has the military support it needs to repel and defeat this Russian invasion once and for all.”

Putin doesn’t want peace. Putin wants Ukraine. Enough is enough. President Trump should rescind the diesel deal with Russia and use the Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia Act to impose harsh sanctions on nations purchasing Russian energy, work with our allies to ensure Ukraine has the military support it needs to repel and defeat this Russian invasion once and for all. Slava Ukraini🇺🇸🇺🇦

Meanwhile, Republican Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky — who lost to Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein in the May primary — praised the waiver.

“I was one of only 7 republicans to vote against the short-sighted Lindsay Graham sanctions bill,” Massie wrote. “Glad to see Trump has used the executive authority granted to him by Congress to waive almost all of the provisions of this stupid law that pertain to Russia.”

I was one of only 7 republicans to vote against the short-sighted Lindsay Graham sanctions bill. Glad to see Trump has used the executive authority granted to him by Congress to waive almost all of the provisions of this stupid law that pertain to Russia. https://t.co/dag2i11wXM

The national average price of a barrel of diesel is $6.32 — up from $3.64 in 2025, according to AAA’s estimates.

THE LEGISLATIVE

With Congress adjourned until after Election Day, all eyes are on the campaign trail.

Midterm Roundup

Here’s an overview of some of the races that Trump seeks to shore up this week.

Kansas:

Incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall faces a tighter than anticipated reelection contest as Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton, a pastor, has seized on ranchers’ opposition to Trump’s beef imports, according to the Kansas City Star.

Nevermind the 2020 sermon in which Hamilton called on congregants to repent for causing climate change through various actions, including eating beef.

Diesel and fertilizer costs could also be costing votes in traditionally Republican areas.

North Carolina:

Obama-endorsed former North Carolina governor Roy Cooper is running on a “Make Stuff Cost Less” campaign. Former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley has criticized Cooper’s record as governor for driving up those prices. For instance, Cooper embraced companies like Meta and Google expanding data centers in North Carolina, but has now pivoted, calling for guarantees they don’t impact North Carolinians’ energy costs.

In a new book, “How to Lose Friends and Antagonize Presidents,” outgoing Republican Sen. Thom Tillis claimed Whatley’s election changes were damaged by defending the reforms to Medicaid in Trump’s signature 2025 Big Beautiful Bill. On Thursday, the Department of Justice announced a 56 year old man pleaded guilty to defrauding North Carolina Medicaid out of hundreds of thousands of dollars.

South Carolina:

Democrat Annie Andrews has positioned herself as a moderate, saying she supports the Second Amendment and that Democrats have failed on the border, and has expressly campaigned for Republican voters who feel disappointed by the party.

Andrews called Trump’s post calling her “Annie Trannie” unpresidential, but has mostly avoided tying her campaign to an anti-Trump message and has sought report from Republicans and independents. Republican Darline Sen. Darline Graham, the late Sen. Lindsey Graham’s sister, raised eyebrows when she admitted “national security is not my thing” in a primary debate.

Graham offered mild criticism of Trump over the diesel deal with Russia.

“I do not care for Russia, and I can personally say I do not like Putin,” she said. “If the oil prices drop I think that will be good for our country.”

Iowa:

The race to replace Republican Sen. Joni Ernst features Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson against Democratic State Representative Josh Turek.

Turek has sought to tie Hinson to rising fuel prices.

Hinson says Turek is “cosplaying as a conservative” and has out-of-touch liberal views. Hinson has criticized him for missing votes in the Iowa legislature, which Turek has struggled to explain.

Spook Turned Senator Previews How Democrats Plan To Weaponize Government

Democrats are likely to gain control of one or both houses of Congress next year, and if past is prologue, they will launch a bevy of investigations into the Trump administration for transgressions real or imagined.

Sen. Elissa Slotkin’s vote to impeach Trump in 2019 brought accusations from her own constituents that the former Central Intelligence Agency analyst remained a “CIA HACK,” and in remarks to the University of Chicago over the weekend she sure as hell acted like one.

Slotkin said in an interview on October 13 that she hoped to terrorize the next generation’s most talented conservatives out of government service through political prosecutions. Slotkin was answering a question about how Democrats can prosecute Trump given the limits of impeachment. She answered that prosecuting his aides would be an effective “deterrent.”

ON UCHICAGO CAMPUS: U.S. Senator from Michigan Elissa Slotkin hopes planned political prosecutions of republican leaders will scare young conservatives from getting involved in politics. @ElissaSlotkin https://t.co/p7NBJpDcQW

“So that’s what I’m saying, I want to look at these signature cases and not just focus on the president but on the people who enabled him. I want young people coming out of school to say, ‘Should I go work for the Trump Administration? Like that sounds fun. I might get an opportunity.’ I want them to be like, ‘Lord, that might be buying myself a ton of problems that I don’t want, and so let me avoid participating in that,’” she said. “I want that deterrence message.”

She gave some examples of “signature cases” in a speech last month: “If Kristi Noem steered two hundred million in taxpayer dollars to a friend’s company to make her ads, she should be held accountable. If Doug Burgum gave a thirteen-million-dollar no-bid contract for the Reflecting Pool that backfired immediately, he should be held accountable. And, if Jeanine Pirro used the DOJ to go after the President’s enemies, including me, she should be held accountable — and she should lose her law license.”

The CIA retaliates against democratically elected leaders abroad in the name of American national security, but maybe the Senate shouldn’t offer safe harbor to people so comfortable with using those tactics at home.

AI ‘Safety’ Bill Would Give Claude A Pass For 49 Kills

Americans have a lot of concerns about artificial intelligence, as this year’s elections in Ohio, Texas, Pennsylvania and elsewhere make clear.

Congress is going to begin to grapple with the risks of robot-generated cyberattacks and optimized superviruses when it returns later this year.

A new bill circulated by Anthropic would empower the federal government to block the release of AI models if found to pose a “foreseeable, imminent risk of more than $1 billion in damages, or of killing or seriously injuring more than 50 people,” Politico reported.

Anthropic would pay the “third party” assessors of risk. The bill would allow the Commerce Department to seek approval from a judge to block the model.

Of course, the bill would also terminate the Commerce Department’s existing ability to block the deployment of models through its Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security, as it did over the summer when alerted to a jailbreak in Anthropic’s latest Claude Fable model. It would require the buy-in of Anthropic-paid analysts, a judge, and proof of risk that meets an arbitrary threshold that deems 49 deaths acceptable, but 50 one too many.

If it’s true, as many of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei’s friends believe, that killing an AI model has the moral weight of extinguishing a human soul, why is it that a model should murder 49 human souls with apparent impunity?

THE JUDICIARY

Last-Minute Election Integrity Lawsuit Hits California

The Trump administration is taking action on election integrity as millions of voters prepare to cast their ballots. But is it too late?

The Department of Justice (DOJ) and Department of Homeland (DHS) filed a lawsuit against California last Thursday after Homeland Security Investigations determined that the state allegedly has over 20,000 people on its voter list who are likely illegal aliens.

“State-facilitated voter fraud is unacceptable in the United States of America,” Attorney General Todd Blanche stated in a DOJ press release Thursday. “If found responsible in a court of law, the State of California will have seriously undermined confidence in our electoral system and violated laws that protect our nation’s representative system of government.”

“It is unlawful for noncitizens to vote in federal elections,” DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin also stated. “This preliminary analysis has identified a significant number of individuals in California who are likely noncitizens and appear to be registered to vote; the analysis and review remain ongoing. This is completely unacceptable — as even one noncitizen vote cancels out the ballot of an American citizen and undermines our elections.”

Blanche and Mullin both stated in the press release that their respective departments are committed to cracking down on election fraud.

Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom responded to the lawsuit in a same-day press release, calling it a “totally unprecedented request that should scare the hell out of every American.”

“This is a sad, desperate attempt by Trump to use his politicized Justice Department to try to suppress California voters just three weeks before Election Day,” Newsom stated. “The courts have made clear that the federal government has no role in how a state carries out its election process, and now, in the middle of Californians voting, they have asked local officials — who do a damn good job defending democracy — to violate federal law … We will continue to carry out free and fair elections in the Golden State — and call out this authoritarian as he tries every play in the dictator’s playbook.”

The lawsuit was filed with the U.S. District Court for Central California. Out of the 28 active judges on that court, 18 were appointed by Democrats and 9 by Republicans, according to Ballotpedia. One seat remains vacant.

SCOTUS Sides With GOP Political Action Committees

However, Republicans on the campaign trail may have gotten some good news from the judiciary last Monday.

The Supreme Court accepted with the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC)’s and National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC)’s application to pause the Fourth Circuit’s August ruling that blocked the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) from allowing political parties to receive favorable advertising rates like individual candidates.

The parties challenging the NRSC, NRCC, and FCC in the case were none other than Sherodd Brown of Ohio, John Ossoff of Georgia, Roy Cooper of North Carolina, and Kristen McDonald Rivet of Michigan — all of whom are the Democratic nominees in their respective races.

Over 70% of respondents to an Oct. 3-5 POLITICO poll reported seeing more ads for Democrats than Republicans this election cycle, POLITICO reported Oct. 8.

In light of that disparity, this ruling could open the door for GOP-aligned PACs to try a last-minute ad blitz to woo whatever swing voters may be left in the wild.

MISCELLANEOUS

French Riots And The Origins Of The Political Left

About a month into the unrest sweeping France, rioters burned down the spire of Limoges’ 19-century city hall last Saturday. CBS News reported that French police arrested at least 1,800 people as between 550,000-800,000 people engaged in demonstrations across the nation.

Vice President JD Vance, in response to the arson, posted on X last Saturday that he “pray[s]” France will “stop this madness before more of its landmarks burn.”

“Western liberals imported the third world into France and other countries in the name of diversity and compassion,” he wrote. “They ignored fundamental questions of assimilation and compatibility. They were told it would lead to this and they didn’t listen … And I hope Americans are paying attention. This is the future congressional Democrats seek for your country.”

Western liberals imported the third world into France and other countries in the name of diversity and compassion. They ignored fundamental questions of assimilation and compatibility. They were told it would lead to this and they didn’t listen. I pray that France, a beautiful country of amazing people, will stop this madness before more of its landmarks burn. And I hope Americans are paying attention. This is the future congressional Democrats seek for your country.

Trump has also attributed the violence to immigration.

“France is burning! The immigration of people from an entirely different world, people with hatred in their hearts, has shattered that once great country,” Trump said in a Sunday morning Truth Social post. “Close your Borders and take control, before it is too late!”

However, multiple mainstream media outlets claim the riots started because of dissatisfaction over rising cost of living and poor conditions within schools. If that’s true, then this wouldn’t be the first time the Left used affordability as an excuse to destroy France.

Le jour d’après à Limoges. Désolation. Tristesse. Colère. https://t.co/lj5xHgTnB4

For roughly 1,300 years, France was a bastion of Christendom, being traditionally referred to as the “Eldest Daughter of the Church” since King Clovis I’s conversion to Catholicism in either 496 or 508. That streak ended after the French Revolution overthrew the monarchy and Church in 1789. That’s also when we got the labels “Right” and “Left.” The monarchists and clergy sat on the right-hand side of the legislature, while the atheistic revolutionaries sat on the left side.

What was the revolutionaries’ justification for overthrowing the French establishment and unleashing ten years of terror? Cost of living. So, one could conclude that leveraging affordability to justify destroying the West has always been the modus operandi of the French Left … and the American Left may be taking notes.