The European Powder Keg: ‘Bosnia Is a Failed State’ 

Bosnia is on the brink of collapse following the sentencing of Milorad Dodik for defying the United Nations High Representative.

Bosnia and Herzegovina, located in the Western Balkans, is bordered by Croatia, Serbia, and Montenegro. It is home to three main ethnic groups: Bosniak Muslims, Catholic Croats, and Orthodox Serbs.

The breakup of Yugoslavia and the war that followed left the country in ruins, with thousands of victims and deep ethnic and religious divisions. 

The war, which began in 1992, ended with the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement, which divided the country into two federal entities: the Republic of Srpska, primarily inhabited by Orthodox Serbs, and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, shared by Bosniak Muslims and Catholic Croats.

The Dayton Peace Agreement, however, failed to provide a long-term solution for Bosnia. As Tamás Orbán of the European Conservative aptly points out, “Bosnia and Herzegovina is not a country; it’s a ceasefire between three nations pretending to be one, and it may soon come to an end.”

A few weeks ago, a court found Republic of Srpska President Milorad Dodik guilty of defying the authority of Bosnia’s UN High Representative, Christian Schmidt. He was sentenced to one year in prison and barred from holding public office for six years.

The court’s ruling has plunged the country into a constitutional and political crisis unlike any seen since the end of the war.

Jovan Tripkovic, a contributor to The American Conservative, sat down with President Dodik to discuss the ruling, the Biden administration’s involvement in the judicial process against him, and his hopes of working with President Donald Trump to resolve the crisis.

The past few weeks have been incredibly turbulent for you. For our readers who don’t closely follow developments in the Balkans, could you briefly summarize what has happened to you during this time?

This crisis has been building up for years, beginning with President Biden and his officials, including Ambassador Michael J. Murphy, who have acted like colonial rulers in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Their actions have undermined the country’s constitution and the Dayton Peace Agreement, which was instrumental in establishing lasting peace in Bosnia.

At the end of the war, the Dayton Peace Agreement established the Office of the High Representative (OHR) for Bosnia and Herzegovina. The High Representative is appointed by the Peace Implementation Council—PIC, an international body charged with implementing the Dayton Peace Agreement. The PIC comprises 55 countries and agencies. 

The Biden administration installed Christian Schmidt through an ad hoc group that lacks any official international jurisdiction over Bosnia or the Dayton Peace Agreement. Russia and China opposed the appointment of Christian Schmidt, so he was appointed by the PIC Steering Board in 2021, but not confirmed by the UN Security Council due to Russian and Chinese opposition.

For this reason, we consider Christian Schmidt an illegitimate holder of the Office of the High Representative.

Upon his arrival in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt began unilaterally imposing decisions and altering the country’s laws. The Muslim side welcomed these actions, believing they would pave the way for a unitary Bosnia, ultimately undermining the existence of the Orthodox Christian entity, the Republic of Srpska.

As the president of the Republic of Srpska, I refused to comply with Schmidt’s unconstitutional and colonial imposition of changes to existing laws. That is my so-called "original sin." I firmly believe that no foreigner should have the authority to unilaterally impose and alter a country’s law at their discretion.

That is why I was found guilty of defying the authority of Bosnia’s UN High Representative, Christian Schmidt. A few weeks ago, I was sentenced to one year in prison and banned from holding public office for six years.

What are your thoughts on the court’s decision?

The court that sentenced me was biased, predominantly composed of Bosnian Muslims, as was the prosecutor’s office that formally initiated the case against me. This verdict is politically motivated, aimed at removing me from political and public life.

The deep state attempted a similar tactic against President Trump in an effort to prevent his re-election. Fortunately, they did not succeed.

Considering everything you’ve just told me, I have to ask—do you believe Bosnia and Herzegovina is a failed state?

Since the Dayton Peace Agreement ended the civil war in Bosnia in 1995, Democratic administrations have consistently worked to undermine it. Over the past 30 years, the Bosnian project has proven to be largely unsuccessful, as the country remains deeply divided along ethnic lines. The people of Bosnia—Bosniak Muslims, Catholic Croats, and Orthodox Serbs—do not wish to live in the same country.

These factors render Bosnia a non-functional nation-state and are the primary reason so many people are leaving for other countries. Bosnia is unable to meet the basic needs of its citizens, including fostering economic growth. This is why I believe Bosnia is a failed state in the heart of Europe.

The only thing that has not failed in Bosnia is international interventionism, driven by President Biden’s administration and supported by other neoconservative officials in Washington, D.C., who continue to hold the country together.

During her first presidential campaign, Hillary Clinton claimed she had come under sniper fire during a trip to Bosnia as first lady. However, she visited the country in March 1996, after the war had ended. This incident offers a revealing glimpse into how the Democratic Party’s elites perceive Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Since 1992, the United States has invested over $2 billion in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Where has all that money gone?

Until recently, we knew very little about these funds. The new administration revealed that over the past four years, Bosnia received $402 million through USAID programs. However, Bosnia’s financial regulatory agencies have confirmed receiving only $150 million during the same period. The fate of the remaining $250 million remains unclear.

I am asking: Where did a quarter of a billion dollars go? What was it spent on? Why were American taxpayers required to fund Bosnia’s nation-building process, including sponsoring the Office of the High Representative of the United Nations?

I agree with officials from President Trump’s administration who have stated that USAID operates as a criminal organization. While there is no doubt that some of the funds have supported beneficial projects for our communities, the majority of USAID grant money has been used to finance the nation-building process and other corrupt activities.

What are your thoughts on former U.S. federal prosecutor Martin De Luca’s visit to Bosnia and Herzegovina and the initiation of an investigation into USAID misappropriations in the country?

It’s very encouraging. I believe that any further investigation into USAID’s activities and finances related to Bosnia will uncover deep-rooted corruption. I am also aware that a USAID official owned two consulting firms registered at the same address in Washington, D.C., even using the same telephone number.

Through these entities, he managed USAID grants for Bosnia, particularly in the judicial sector, where he worked to install liberal judges aligned with President Biden’s agenda. I know for a fact that he awarded one of his firms a USAID grant of $11 million to oversee Bosnia and Herzegovina’s judicial branch.

I am willing to collaborate with President Trump’s administration and Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency in any future investigation into USAID corruption and misappropriation in Bosnia.

From a historical perspective, it appears that Democratic administrations—from President Clinton to President Biden—have actively worked to shape the Bosnian nation, often at the expense of Catholic Croats and Orthodox Serbs. Is there any truth to this claim?

Absolutely. I’ve been in politics for over 30 years and have witnessed this process many times. It is clear that Bosnia has a Christian majority. However, Democratic administrations—including Clinton, Obama, and most recently Biden—have consistently worked to place both Catholic Croats and Orthodox Serbs under the political and legal authority of a Muslim minority.

This is a deeply emotional issue for us. During and after the war, 150,000 Orthodox Serbs were forced to flee their homes, leaving their property behind after Muslims took control of Sarajevo. More than two decades later, President Biden’s administration pressured Catholic Croats and Orthodox Serbs to accept Sarajevo as the nation’s capital. As part of this effort, they centralized the entire judicial branch—aligned with their agenda—in Sarajevo.

I am not the only person to face legal prosecution for opposing the nation-building process in Bosnia. Dragan Čović, the representative of Catholic Croats in Bosnia, was also sentenced due to his political activities. Although he was later exonerated, he still had to spend time in jail. This tactic is used to intimidate and discourage those who resist the nation-building agenda, effectively preventing representatives of Croats and Serbs from voicing their concerns about the assimilation of their people into the Muslim majority.

You’ve shared a lot about the involvement of President Biden’s administration in Bosnia. Could you also say a few words about the role of Biden’s ambassador, Michael J. Murphy, in the judicial process against you?

Ambassador Murphy orchestrated the judicial process against me, directing the illegitimate High Representative, Christian Schmidt, on how to handle my case. Years ago, Murphy served as an assistant to Richard Holbrooke, the key diplomat in the Clinton administration who brokered the 1995 peace agreement in Bosnia. Strongly influenced by Holbrooke’s views on Bosnia, Ambassador Murphy has returned to complete the unfinished business of his former boss.

As soon as he arrived in Bosnia, Ambassador Murphy began acting against the country’s constitution and the Dayton Peace Agreement. Bosnia’s constitution, modeled after the U.S. Constitution, states that any powers not explicitly designated as federal jurisdiction are reserved for the entities. However, Ambassador Murphy sought to change that.

During his tenure as ambassador in Bosnia, he behaved like a colonial ruler, effectively capturing the state by weakening its political institutions and manipulating decision-making to benefit the Biden administration and the Muslim majority. Ambassador Murphy justified his actions by leveraging his close relationship with Secretary Blinken as a shield.

He is the mastermind behind the judicial witch hunt against me, hoping that the people of the Republic of Srpska would support the court’s ruling. However, Murphy overplayed his hand. According to the latest polls, an overwhelming majority of voters believe the verdict is politically motivated and illegitimate.

From what I’m hearing, it seems that President Biden’s administration has deliberately fostered instability in Bosnia. Guided by identity politics favoring the Muslim side, Ambassador Michael J. Murphy has actively opposed a strategic agreement that would have increased U.S. gas imports. Max Primorac, a Senior Research Fellow at the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom at the Heritage Foundation and one of the authors of Project 2025, has publicly criticized Ambassador Murphy in a piece for the National Interest. Could you share with our readers what that was all about?

As an ambassador, Murphy acted like a colonial governor. When meeting with Croat representatives in Bosnia, he insisted that a gas terminal be built on their territory. However, he also told them—and even threatened them—that control and jurisdiction over the terminal must be handed over to Bosnian Muslims. This was an unjust and unfair approach toward Croatia and its people.

Why do you believe Ambassador Murphy favored the Muslim side in this energy agreement?

I don’t have concrete evidence of this, but there are many rumors about Ambassador Murphy’s financial dealings with Bosnian Muslims. I wouldn’t be surprised if they turned out to be true.

What is the path forward to resolve the political crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina? What would be the ideal solution for the Republic of Srpska?

There are no ideal solutions left. We can’t accept an unconstitutional judicial system designed to prosecute anyone who disagrees with the Muslim side and their vision for the country. We do not seek war or any form of conflict—we stand for peace.

The leadership of the Republic of Srpska seeks to restore the original interpretation of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s constitution. Any issue not explicitly addressed in the constitution should be discussed and resolved through dialogue among representatives of Bosnian Muslims, Catholic Croats, and Orthodox Serbs.

All three nations must engage in dialogue and work toward a compromise on the pressing issues facing the country. Every group deserves to have its voice heard. However, Bosnia’s diplomatic corps is overwhelmingly dominated by Muslim staffers.

The voices of Catholic Croats and Orthodox Serbs are virtually absent in Bosnian embassies abroad, including the one in Washington, D.C. and the Bosnian mission to the United Nations. This is not a sustainable way to govern the country. All sides must come together, engage in dialogue, and work toward an agreement on the country’s future.

President Trump is a busy man, dealing with the war in Ukraine, the immigration crisis, and a trade war with China, among other pressing issues. Given this, the crisis in Bosnia is unlikely to be a top priority for him. What interest would the United States have in actively participating in resolving the crisis in Bosnia? And would you be open to cooperating with President Trump’s administration to find a solution?

The United States has wasted billions of dollars on the nation-building process in Bosnia and has received nothing in return—absolutely nothing.

In the eastern region of the Republic of Srpska, near the Serbian border, there are substantial deposits of lithium, magnesium, and other rare earth minerals. Some estimates place their commercial value at over $100 billion.

We are open to discussions on a rare earth mineral deal with President Trump. We are willing to grant access to these mineral deposits to companies selected by his administration. Additionally, there is potential for collaboration with Prime Minister Orbán of Hungary, whose government is involved in this investment.

The Government of the Republic of Srpska, in cooperation with President Trump, is prepared to fast-track the issuance of all necessary mining permits for American companies selected to participate in this rare earth minerals agreement.

So far, we have not granted mining rights to any country or foreign company. I am willing to discuss this matter exclusively with President Trump, and I believe we could reach a mutually beneficial agreement.

I assume you listened closely to Vice President Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference, where he addressed the suppression of free speech, elections, and the democratic process. Given recent events in Bosnia, his words almost seem as if they were directed specifically at you. How do you interpret his message in the context of the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Vice President Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference has been an inspiring catalyst for change across Europe. It served as a sharp analytical wake-up call, signaling the need for a new approach. If properly understood, it represents the best offer from the U.S. to European leaders—a call for a stronger, more independent Europe.

While I was encouraged by Vice President Vance’s address, I was somewhat surprised by Secretary Rubio’s recent post on X, in which he accused me of undermining Bosnia and Herzegovina’s institutions and threatening its security and stability.

I want to make it clear that I am not undermining Bosnia’s sovereignty, security, or stability. I support a peaceful and constitutional resolution to the current political crisis in Bosnia.

As the president of the Republic of Srpska, I strongly align with Vice President Vance’s remarks in Munich and intend to act accordingly. His speech delivered a fresh and important message from Washington—one that should not be diluted by conflicting statements from other U.S. officials, even if they come from Secretary Rubio.

Just a few hours ago, Calin Georgescu was barred from the Romanian presidential election re-run. Do you see any parallels between the situations in Bosnia and Romania?

I see clear parallels and still can’t believe something like this has happened. Georgescu won the first round of the presidential election, only for it to be canceled after his victory. Now, he has been banned once again from participating in the new election out of fear that he might win. It’s surreal. I am certain that the United States and its leadership do not support a world where such things are possible.

I firmly believe we are witnessing the emergence of an anti-Trump bloc among European leaders. There are striking similarities between what is happening to Calin Georgescu and my own situation. Both cases appear to be orchestrated by German political and intelligence structures seeking to establish Germany as the dominant force in Europe.

President Trump is not a strong supporter of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and has also been critical of the European Union. Recently, the official X profile of the U.S. Embassy in Bosnia and Herzegovina posted a statement criticizing your recent actions while expressing support for Bosnia’s integration into the EU and NATO.

As someone who closely follows American politics, I can confidently say that President Trump is unlikely to prioritize Bosnia’s membership in either organization. How do you interpret the apparent differences between President Trump’s stance and the messaging from the U.S. Embassy in Bosnia and Herzegovina?

That is surprising to me. I believe these mixed messages, which contradict President Trump’s America First agenda, originate from deep state bureaucrats and officials. The Biden administration has hired numerous Muslim staffers to work at the U.S. Embassy in Sarajevo. In fact, over 90 percent of the embassy's staff, including its director of communications, are local Muslims.

The statements made by the U.S. Embassy in Sarajevo and Secretary Rubio were unfair to Orthodox Serbs. Moreover, both were inconsistent with President Trump’s America First policy.

Secretary Rubio’s post on X was one-sided, showing support exclusively for the Muslim side. I am not criticizing him; rather, I am inviting him to engage in dialogue. I want him to hear all three perspectives, not just that of the Bosnian Muslims, who seek to impose their rule on the country’s Christian majority.

We have never advocated for war, nor have we taken any actions to provoke conflict. We stand for peace. Unfortunately, we continuously hear warmongering rhetoric from Muslim representatives. Some Bosnian Muslims have even called for NATO intervention against us.

What message would you like to convey to President Trump and Vice President Vance?

I am calling on them to help us and to prevent any form of NATO intervention in Bosnia. We do not want war—we want peace. We seek to fight for our human rights through democratic means. Our goal is to restore the original interpretation of the Dayton Peace Agreement. Help us overturn all illegitimate and undemocratic decisions imposed on us by President Biden’s administration.

President Trump and Vice President Vance can play a pivotal role in ensuring the Dayton Peace Agreement is honored. If an agreement with Bosnian Muslims cannot be reached, there is no reason why all three nations—Croats, Muslims, and Serbs—cannot begin a dialogue about a peaceful, non-violent dissolution of Bosnia. I am ready and eager to engage with the new administration in discussions on all the challenges facing Bosnia and its future.