The Playbook, Inning 9: Mastering the 2025 player pool

(The full, nine-inning Playbook was originally published during the spring of 2020. The following 2025 analysis is new.)

We've gone through the basics of fantasy baseball, discussed salary cap strategy and how to build a cheat sheet. We've also provided in-season trade and free agency tips, dug deep into the advanced stats (including those provided by Statcast) and examined the latest trends around the league.

Still, even with all those tools at your disposal, there's no greater truth to fantasy baseball success than this: The key ingredient to winning a championship is an extensive knowledge of the player pool itself.

This final edition of the Playbook takes you through my own playbook -- a file I compile and maintain annually containing notes on hundreds of players, where I'll jot down any sort of injury report, statistical nugget or neat fact that might help in the decision-making process. It's from this file that I craft my player rankings and ultimately create my own cheat sheets.

They're things you might consider when drafting any of the listed names, though my rankings ultimately provide you my best estimate of each player's current-season worth.

With that in mind, here are a few of those players who have sprung to the front of my mind as we get ready for the spring action to come:

To illustrate how truly special a talent Bobby Witt Jr. is, Statcast's Barrel and sprint-speed metrics paint quite the picture. He is the only player in the 10-year history for which we have that data to have managed at least 10% Barrel and 30% sprint-speed rates. He placed in the 92nd percentile in the former, the 100th in the latter and is baseball's first player with multiple 30/30 seasons before turning 25 years old.

Aaron Judge might be coming off one of the best hitting seasons in baseball history as his 223 OPS-plus was sixth-best among batting title-eligibles during the Integration Era, and he scored 630 fantasy points. However, historic campaigns often coax us to overlook the effects of regression or a player's past injury history.

Consider that, from 2000-23, there were 39 instances of a hitter scoring 600-plus fantasy points. Over each player's following season, that group averaged 21.4 fewer games and only 507.4 points. One-third of those players scored fewer than 500 fantasy points -- including Judge himself, who missed 54 days and 42 team games with a 2023 toe injury suffered when he crashed into an outfield wall at Dodger Stadium (as well as another 11 days and 10 team games with a hip issue earlier in the year). He finished 2023 with only 106 games played and 340 fantasy points, sixth-worst among those 39 "follow-up" campaigns.

I'm as big a Judge fan as anyone, but if he's going to cost a hefty, almost Shohei Ohtani-like premium in drafts, I'm passing on him for 2025.

A first-round pick last year, Corbin Carroll began 2024 as one of its biggest disappointments, in large part due to his struggles adapting to some swing changes he had made last winter. Carroll straightened things out shortly thereafter -- something I examined in this June column -- batting .256/.348/.522 with 20 home runs, 26 stolen bases and a seventh-best-among-hitters 331 fantasy points. That's a much better representation of what should be expected from him going forward than his ghastly numbers over 2024's first 10 weeks.

Kyle Tucker's injury last season -- a small fracture in his shin suffered on June 3 during an at-bat -- was more of a fluke than a long-term concern. Keep that in mind when evaluating him entering what is his walk year, as well as his first with the Chicago Cubs. Tucker had scored the third-most fantasy points at the time of his injury (222), and he was comparably excellent after his return, ranking 21st with 58 points from Sept. 6 until the end of the regular season. At the time he got hurt, he was on track for a third consecutive 25/25 (HR/SB) campaign, something that has been done by only nine players in history.

Although Julio Rodriguez endured a disappointing, injury-marred 2024, he still managed a third consecutive 20/20 campaign to begin his MLB career. He's only 24 years old, and he finished last season on a high note. He hit .295/.345/.486 with nine home runs and six stolen bases over his final 43 games, during which time he had comparable Statcast average exit velocity (92.3 mph), hard-hit (50.4%) and Barrel rates (11.3%) to his numbers from 2022-23 combined (92.4, 51.7% and 12.4%). Rodriguez's free-swinging nature continues to make him more of a premium pick in rotisserie leagues than he is in ESPN's points-based standard, but there's an excellent chance he's aligned for 2025 results closer to those of 2022 or 2023.

Combining the past three seasons, only two hitters have had at least a 15% Statcast Barrel and at most a 17.5% strikeout rate: Juan Soto and Yordan Alvarez. We all think of Soto as one of the best all-around hitters, with elite raw power and contact ability, but do we regard Alvarez the same? Probably not ... but we should.

It's a shame that the San Diego Padres couldn't have claimed they played in the AL just so that Jackson Merrill could have snagged a Rookie of the Year Award in a season in which he was plenty deserving of the honor. That's not to criticize Paul Skenes, who was every bit as worthy (and my personal pick for the award), but Merrill set a record for a player 21 years or younger with five game-tying or go-ahead home runs in the ninth inning or later. It underscored the Padres slugger's rapidly growing raw power skills, which were most evident from June 12 onward, when he hit .304/.336/.596 with 21 home runs over 89 games. During that time, Merrill's 14.8% Statcast Barrel rate ranked 14th, and his 38.1% fly-ball rate sat third among hitters with at least 250 plate appearances.

Let's set aside shortened MLB seasons -- the COVID-shortened 2020, in this example -- for a moment. If we do that, Manny Machado would have nine consecutive complete MLB seasons with at least 28 home runs. That would make him one of only 16 players in baseball history with a streak of at least that length, underscoring his consistently excellent production even as he enters his age-32 season.

Few 2024-ending injuries warrant as close attention this spring than Rafael Devers' shoulder issue, which cost him 11 of the Boston Red Sox's final 31 games and caused him to hit only .164 with one extra-base hit, a double, in the other 20. To further illustrate the effects of the shoulder injury on his production, he had 46.0% hard-hit and 39.0% whiff rates, the former 8% beneath his rate up to that point in 2024, the latter more than 9% greater than his early-season exploits.

Statcast estimated that Anthony Santander should have been expected to hit only 36.6 home runs last season, (awfully close to the 33.3 he had in that category in the two previous seasons) and within range of the 33 (2022) and 28 (2023) he actually hit. He ended up with 44. When figuring out a three-year average to help project his 2025 potential HR output, it's probably much wiser to chip 8-10 homers off last season's total. Set a number around 32 as your baseline for his 2025 expectations.

Adley Rutschman was struck on the hand by a foul tip in a June 27 game, missing the Baltimore Orioles' next contest but no additional time. After that point, however, he managed to hit only .189/.279/.280 with four home runs over 71 games -- a surefire signal that the injury took a toll on his production. Rutschman is another player whose health warrants monitoring during Grapefruit League action, as from the date of his MLB debut (5/21/22) until the date of that injury, his 214 fantasy points led all catchers and were tied for 17th-best among hitters.

Although his 2024 U.S. debut didn't go quite as well as many hoped, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, at times, still flashed the top-shelf stuff that should quickly make him one of fantasy's best starting pitchers. After surrendering five runs in the first inning of the season's opening game in Japan, he posted the majors' ninth-best ERA (2.34), 11th-best strikeout rate (28.1%) and 11th-best K/BB ratio (5.13) until he got hurt in a June 15 start. During that span, only 14 starting pitchers averaged better than his 15.3 fantasy points per start.

If rationales for Jarren Duran's breakthrough 2024 are what you seek, his defensive improvements rank high on that list. A liability in the field in his early MLB days, Duran was worth 11 runs defensively last season, tied for eighth-most among outfielders, and his 10 Statcast Outs Above Average between left and center field were tied for 12th-best among outfielders. That's the kind of defensive skill that earns a player a fantasy-beneficial everyday role, as Duran played in 160 games and had a league-leading 735 plate appearances. Expect more of the same in 2025, despite Boston's crowded roster.

Speaking of playing time benefits, Jurickson Profar's career bests of 158 games and 668 plate appearances had a lot to do with his 2024 rebound -- one you can term a breakthrough if you weren't wowed by his 2018. It probably also helped that he had a full spring training this time around. You may recall that after signing late in 2023, he had a miserable season. Regression nevertheless appears likely to have an effect on his 2025, especially as he hit .235/.345/.409 over his final 66 games last season.

Devin Williams' back injury, which cost him the first four months of the 2024 season, didn't seem to have any adverse impact upon his performance after his activation. Among pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched from the date of his July 28 activation onward, his 43.2% strikeout rate ranked second, his 14 saves tied for fourth and his .133 BAA ranked 10th.

Keep tabs on the Texas Rangers' lineup plans during spring training, as Marcus Semien's status as the team's leadoff hitter has a good amount of say in his fantasy value. He leads the majors with 2,919 plate appearances across the past four seasons, resulting in his scoring 1,841 fantasy points, seventh-best among hitters. Going by his per-game average, however, his 2.86 ranked only 15th among hitters (minimum 400 games), and he's coming off what was a down year as a 33-year-old in 2024. Fortunately, Semien has remained in the leadoff spot in early spring games, but any change would deepen his downside.

Matt Olson has hit 74 home runs after the All-Star break over the last four years combined, second-most in baseball to Judge's 89. Olson has also averaged 0.49 fantasy points per game more after the break compared to his pre-break numbers over this stretch. Keep that in mind when you're evaluating an aggressive bid for him at the draft table, relative to letting him go and instead trying to make an in-season trade for him.

George Kirby has quickly become one of my favorite high-floor fantasy pitching targets, thanks to his pinpoint control and elite stuff. In both 2023 and 2024, he pitched at least 190 innings with a sub-3% walk rate, accounting for two of the only 12 such seasons this century. Kirby, however, is one of only three different pitchers to have done that while also sporting at least a 7.5 K/BB ratio in the same year, joining Greg Maddux (1995, 1997), Cliff Lee (2010) and Phil Hughes (2014). Though Hughes is the outlier on that list, Kirby is in some impressive company with Maddux and Lee, and he'll play this season at only 27 years old.

Only two qualified hitters last season managed at least a 45% Statcast hard-hit rate but also no greater than a 15% whiff rate on all swings last season: Yandy Diaz and Vinnie Pasquantino. Both players' elite skills with the bat make them undervalued players, particularly Pasquantino, who hit 24 homers in the minors in 2022 and 28 combined between the majors and minors in 2023.

Willy Adames' 224 plate appearances with runners in scoring position last season was an MLB-leading total, as well as the most by any player since Hunter Pence in 2012. Adames drove in a league-best 93 runners in the process, something that he'll be hard-pressed to repeat in 2025. He also stole 21 bases, almost double his previous career high for stolen base attempts (11, in 2018 and 2022). Adames remains a very good, top 10-capable fantasy shortstop, but he's bound to regress in both the RBI and SB categories in 2025.

Over the last four seasons, Isaac Paredes has pulled 71 home runs and Christian Walker 70, the 10th- and 11th-most by any right-handed batter during that time span. That's important, considering both players are now with the Houston Astros, where their home ballpark, Daikin Park, has the Crawford Boxes in closer-than-league-average proximity to home plate in left field.

Mason Miller became only the third rookie reliever to manage at least 25 saves, 100 strikeouts and a sub-2.50 ERA, joining Terry Forster (1972) and Craig Kimbrel (2011), which is why I was shocked to see him place only fourth in the wide-open AL Rookie of the Year balloting. Perhaps that will help him sneak relatively beneath the radar when compared to other top closers, but he has the raw stuff that compares to anyone's. Miller led all pitchers (minimum 50 IP) in strikeout rate (41.8%), average fastball velocity (100.9 mph) and Statcast's expected ERA (1.77).

At the age of 34 and in his 13th season in the majors, Sonny Gray enjoyed what could by many measures have been regarded a career year in 2024. If you're worried about his ability to maintain his performance at his age, consider what he just accomplished. His 5.8% walk rate was a personal best, and last season represented the first time in his career that he has had three pitches that he threw at least 10% of the time generate at least a 30% whiff rate (sweeper, cutter and curveball).

It's easy to underrate closers who only recently moved into their jobs, such as the Ryan Walker of the San Francisco Giants. He notched his first save last season on Aug. 10. From that date forward, his 122 fantasy points were seventh-best among relief pitchers. Among those with at least 15 appearances during that time span, his 37.3% strikeout rate tied for ninth-best, his 26.8% hard-hit rate allowed ranked 11th-best, and his 1.91 FIP was 15th-best. Walker has the ability to be a top-10 fantasy closer in 2025.

To give you a sense of what a healthy Hunter Greene can do, consider that he stayed mostly injury-free between Aug. 20, 2023, and Aug. 13, 2024 (other than a 10-day IL stint in September 2023) spanning 158 Cincinnati Reds games. Even accounting for that brief absence, he scored 416 fantasy points, a total exceeded by only 10 other starting pitchers over that time. Additionally, in that same time span, only seven qualified starting pitchers had better than his 29.3% whiff rate.

Brandon Pfaadt had a 1.11 differential between his ERA (4.71) and FIP (3.61) last season, the third-widest in that direction among qualified pitchers. It was only the 10th time this century that a qualified pitcher had an ERA more than a run higher than his FIP, as well as a sub-four FIP, signaling a high degree of unluckiness for the Arizona Diamondbacks starter. Pfaadt is a potential bargain this season.

Yes, Jacob deGrom is one of baseball's greatest injury risks, but he has been consistently excellent around his absences. In the last five seasons alone, coming off what were back-to-back NL Cy Young Award campaigns for the right-hander, 91.5% of his starts resulted in double-digit fantasy points, the best rate in baseball among pitchers with at least five starts. That included two of his three starts fresh off Tommy John surgery in 2024, when he was limited in terms of pitch count. Additionally, 51.1% of deGrom's starts in that same five-year span were worth at least 20 fantasy points, also an MLB-leading rate.

If there's any time to take a chance on deGrom, it's now, with him fully recovered from his most recent surgery and having shown a high level of skill in his brief return.

Elly De La Cruz did have an MLB-leading 218 strikeouts during his breakthrough 2024, but don't let that scare you about his potential growth entering his third big-league season. That he incrementally improved his selectivity at the plate last season bodes well. In 2023, De La Cruz chased a non-strike 29.2% of the time while in Triple-A ball, and 32.8% of the time with the Reds. Last season, he cut that rate down to 26.9%.

Mind Spencer Schwellenbach's workload increased last season, as it's probably the best argument against his potential to advance into the top-10 fantasy starting pitchers in 2025. He was one of 16 pitchers in professional ball to experience at least a 100-inning boost, accounting for work at all pro levels and in foreign leagues, and he was the youngest pitcher among that group.

For those curious about the other pitchers under the age of 30 who were also on that list: Aaron Ashby, Shane Baz, Garrett Crochet, Davis Daniel, Ryan Feltner, Luis Gil, J.T. Ginn, Max Meyer, Casey Mize, Carlos Rodon, Yariel Rodriguez and Trevor Rogers.

The Astros seemed to crack the Yusei Kikuchi code, following their acquisition of the left-hander at the trade deadline. They coaxed him to decrease his four-seam fastball usage while leaning much more heavily upon his slider. In fact, last August and September were two of the only four months in which he has thrown fewer than 50% four-seamers and 30%-plus sliders across the past three seasons.

In those four months, he averaged 12.3 fantasy points per appearance. In the other 14 months, he averaged just 7.9 points per outing. Kikuchi's time with the Astros represented two of his seven best-scoring months from 2021-23. Here's hoping the Los Angeles Angels, his new team, have him continue with similar pitch selection.

James Wood does need to get more lift on the ball before he'll truly break out at the MLB level, but to give you an idea of how much offensive potential he'd have once he does, consider his contact quality of 2024. His 59.1% Statcast hard-hit rate while at Triple-A Rochester led that level (among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances), while his 52.0% rate in his 79 games while with the Washington Nationals placed in the 96th percentile among hitters with at least 150 batted balls. Keep an eye out for any shifts in Wood's swing path this spring.

Only two players had at least 150 plate appearances in each of the past three seasons, while improving their in-zone contact rate in both of the past two years: Shea Langeliers and Michael Massey. In Langeliers' case, he's a potential bargain backstop, and bear in mind that his 534 plate appearances last season were seventh-most among catchers.