The Quiet Rise of the Plastics Crisis

Plastic is, quite literally, everywhere. We see it scattered across roads and piled up in heaps in our cities and towns. It is in consumer products, vehicles, food packaging, clothing, cosmetics, and medical devices. It has been found in the Mariana Trench, on the flanks of Mount Everest, and in the land and water in between. Microplastics—or plastic particles that are less than five millimeters in size—are floating through the atmosphere and in people’s meals. As a result, they have worked their way inside everyone’s bodies and gotten tangled up in brains, hearts, and other organs. Scientists have discovered links between spiking rates of chronic conditions and illnesses and increased exposure to plastics.

Policymakers are increasingly aware that plastic, for all the conveniences it provides, is a threat to both nature and human health. Yet plastic pollution—or plastic that ends up somewhere other than a waste facility or a recycling center—continues to accelerate each year. According to a 2025 Pew report authored by a collection of scientists, sustainability experts, economists, and former officials, including me, plastic production has increased by 13 percent over the last five years (excluding plastic created via recycling). We estimate that if plastic production continues on its current trajectory, rising from 450 million metric tons in 2025 to 680 million in 2040, plastic pollution will increase from 130 to 280 million metric tons. The latter figure is the equivalent of a garbage truck full of plastic dumped onto the ground every second for a year.

Thankfully for the world’s well-being, governments and businesses can prevent this future. According to our findings, it is possible to cut plastic pollution by 83 percent over the next decade and a half using existing technologies and policy solutions. Governments can do so by setting up rules that reorient production and packaging systems away from single-use plastic and to other materials, as well as by improving waste management so that less plastic ends up in the environment. Businesses can remake plastic itself so that it has fewer harmful chemicals, ensuring that it is safer to both use and recycle.

If states and businesses succeed at making these changes, they will create millions of new jobs and save billions of dollars. They will curb pollution, including greenhouse gas emissions, and save countless people from illnesses. But they need to act quickly. Otherwise, the planet might end up being overwhelmed by its most pervasive synthetic material.

UNHAPPILY EVER AFTER

Plastic is problematic because of how much of it is produced and how durable it is. Other consumer materials, such as glass and paper, can certainly pollute. But paper degrades into natural substances reasonably quickly, and glass eventually turns into sand. Plastic takes hundreds of years or more to break down, and it often contains so-called forever chemicals, which last even longer. As a result, plastic pollution becomes an enduring feature of its environment, far more so than other materials.

Right now, governments are handling the world’s ever-growing stockpile of plastic trash by burning plastic, recycling it, or burying it in landfills. But none of these options can protect the planet from being deluged. Burning plastic releases harmful chemicals into the atmosphere and leaves behind mounds of plastic ash. With current systems and technology, most plastic cannot be easily recycled; as a result, only nine percent of it is. And the planet simply doesn’t have enough landfills. As a result, 19 percent, or nearly 90 million metric tons, of plastic waste today is never collected; that figure is set to grow to 240 million metric tons by 2040. This uncollected waste can end up in city streets, fields, forests, rivers, lakes, and oceans. It is then frequently eaten by animals, often injuring or killing them. This problem will almost certainly get worse as plastic manufacturing accelerates in the years ahead: according to our estimates, plastic production is growing twice as fast as waste management capacity. By 2040, the annual cost to collect and dispose of plastic waste globally will hit $140 billion, and plastic production, disposal, and pollution could cost the world an estimated 9.8 million years of healthy human life.

Even if the world could sequester all the plastic that can be seen with the naked eye, the substance could still have deadly consequences. From the moment it is produced, plastic can start shedding tiny particles. As a result, the world’s land, water, and air are all now laced with microplastics that organisms end up breathing and consuming. Some of them are eventually cleared out of people’s systems, but some end up entering our bloodstreams and being deposited across our bodies. This may be driving a range of health issues. Microplastics may be linked to rising rates of cancer, cardiovascular diseases, and diabetes, as well as strokes and infertility.

The microplastics crisis will get worse in the next decade and a half even relative to the overall plastics emergency. There are seven main known sources of microplastics: tires, paint, recycling, agriculture, textiles, pellets, and personal care products. Last year, these sources constituted 13 percent of all plastic pollution. By 2040, however, the amount of pollution from these sources is forecast to grow by 50 percent if action is not taken—from 17 to 26 million metric tons. Tires and paint, for example, will yield 20 million metric tons of microplastic in 2040 compared to 13 million metric tons in 2025. Microplastic pollution from the agriculture sector will grow to roughly three million metric tons from two million. Recycling will generate 2.2 million metric tons, up from two million. Pollution from textiles, pellets, and personal care products will all increase, as well.

Rising plastic production will contribute to another environmental disaster: climate change. The process of making, storing, and disposing of plastic is very carbon intensive. In fact, if the global plastic system were a country, it would be the fourth-largest carbon emitter in the world. By 2040, it would rank third. Our report found that annual greenhouse gas emissions from the global plastic system will grow from 2.7 gigatons to 4.2 gigatons between 2025 and 2040—or the amount of carbon produced by one billion gas-powered cars annually.

CONVENIENCE WITHOUT CONSEQUENCES

The planet is not doomed to this grim future. The world chose to become heavily reliant on plastics, and it can choose to move away from them, as well. In fact, we estimate that it is possible to cut overall plastic production by 14 percent from 2025 levels by 2040 without taking away modern conveniences.

Doing so will require laws that limit plastic use. States can restrict unnecessary and hard-to-recycle plastics, such as polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, and expanded polystyrene (better known as Styrofoam). Such restrictions would lead manufacturers to use more recyclable or non-plastic materials whenever feasible. Governments can also pass extended producer responsibility laws whereby they collect fees from companies for plastics made and sold in order to manage the resulting waste. That could also incentivize companies to phase out low-utility and avoidable plastics or switch to reusable products. And governments can restrict or outright ban the use of many single-use products, such as food service ware, and require certain businesses to use reusable products and packaging. According to our findings, better reuse systems can cut down on plastic packaging waste by two-thirds over the next 14 years.

Even with these restrictions, companies will keep producing millions of tons of plastic each year. For the time being, there is simply no easy substitute for plastic when it comes to a wide variety of important products. But states could pass laws that push companies to make their plastic less dangerous. Governments could mandate that manufacturers change the chemicals used to make certain plastics in order to reduce the health and environmental costs, such as by banning or restricting the use of bisphenols, phthalates, and forever chemicals—all of which have been linked to cancers, reduced fertility, and developmental problems in fetuses and children.

States can also improve how they manage plastic waste. They should invest in collection and sorting systems to ensure that everyone has access to effective waste management services. They also need to spend more on making waste systems more efficient and environmentally friendly, such as by building more landfills that are designed to actively contain waste, addressing illegal waste dumping, and creating safer working conditions and fair wages for the world’s millions of waste pickers, who collect 60 percent of the plastic that is being recycled today.

These reforms would do much to help keep the world’s ecosystems from being littered with visible plastic. But they will not be as useful at curbing the spread of microplastic particles. Because these materials are so minuscule and ubiquitous, they are difficult to capture before entering the wider world. Once they do so, there is no proven way to clean them up that is cost effective and doesn’t damage the environment. Existing policies and technologies, such as advanced wastewater treatment and improved product design, can help limit microplastic release—and thus reduce microplastic pollution by 41 percent by 2040. But that still falls far short of what is needed. Governments and companies will thus need to design better products, make advancements in material engineering, and use natural fibers to prevent microplastics from forming.

LESS IS MORE

Any state that takes these steps will help both the planet and its own citizens. But plastic pollution is a global issue. To solve it, governments will need to share resources and act together.

At first glance, collective action when it comes to plastics might seem impossible; states have a mixed track record of joining forces to tackle environmental challenges. But there are reasons to be optimistic. For the past four years, countries have been negotiating a legally binding United Nations treaty to address plastic pollution that would govern the entire plastic cycle, from production to disposal. Although negotiations are taking longer than originally planned, many governments clearly recognize that plastic pollution is an urgent problem and are set to meet again at the end of June to continue discussions.

Governments are also cooperating at the regional level. In September 2023, the European Union passed legislation that banned companies from intentionally adding microplastics, such as plastic glitter and microbeads, into their products, such as cosmetics and detergents. In 2024, the EU put in place rules that will ban tires that shed comparatively large quantities of microplastics. And in October 2025, the body enacted a law to address pollution from plastic pellets, which are used to make almost all plastic products. Together, these rules could help the EU meet its goal of reducing microplastic pollution by 30 percent by the end of this decade. In Africa, meanwhile, the eight members of the East African Community are exploring joint legislation to phase out harmful single-use plastics, promote more innovative approaches to waste management, and encourage the use of more sustainable materials.

These measures are not enough to solve the plastics crisis. But they are steps in the right direction. If world leaders can channel the resulting momentum, they may, in fact, be able to cut pollution by 83 percent, as our report suggests. Doing so would, in turn, reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 38 percent and the detrimental effects of plastic on human health by 54 percent. They may even be able to nearly eliminate pollution from plastic packaging—one of the most pervasive sources of plastic pollution.

Policymakers might fear that cracking down on plastic will hurt their countries’ economies, given just how essential the material is to seemingly every system. It is true that businesses might have to spend more at first as they redesign products and use new delivery systems and materials. But in the long term, the economic costs of pivoting away from plastic in general, and single-use plastic in particular, are far outweighed by the benefits. If the world can cut plastic pollution by 83 percent by 2040, its governments will save $19 billion annually on plastic waste collection and disposal. They would create 8.6 million new jobs in the reuse and recycling industries—jobs that would be safer and pay better than most current ones in waste collection and disposal. They would also create sustainable business opportunities. New or existing firms, for example, might focus on designing and manufacturing reusable products and biodegradable materials. Others might collect, wash, and distribute reusable food service ware and reusable packaging. And by reducing potential plastic- and microplastic-induced illnesses, governments would have healthier, more economically productive populations, rather than sicker ones that drain state resources.

But to realize all these benefits, countries must start passing new laws now. If governments wait even five years to implement plastic-reduction policies, they will end up spending an extra $27 billion annually on plastic collection and disposal by 2040. Above all, they will continue to coat the planet with what is, ultimately, a toxic material. It is an outcome that should be unacceptable to anyone who cares about the future of the environment—or, indeed, their own well-being.

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