The reason Pep Guardiola may have to break his Carabao Cup promise against Tottenham

It might seem that Pep Guardiola has misunderstood the five substitutes rule. In each of Manchester City’s last two games, their manager has only put five outfield players on the bench. Perhaps the paradox of Guardiola is that the manager who appears to be granted the greatest resources looks to have the fewest footballers.

And if a shortage is explained by injuries, there are six absentees: more than usual at the Etihad Stadium, fewer than at some clubs where the bench is still rather more crowded. Of those six, Jeremy Doku and Jack Grealish should not be sidelined for long. Kevin De Bruyne has already been out for longer than City expected and Guardiola is not sure when he will be back. Kyle Walker also looks increasingly injury-prone. Oscar Bobb is yet to play this season. Rodri will not play again in it.

To put it another way, Guardiola may not have a full complement of replacements for quite some time. Now he approaches a game where he had promised to pick the reserves. “The next round, I announce to you now, I play the second team,” he said after defeating Watford in the Carabao Cup; admittedly before being given a demanding draw at Tottenham.

Now, however, he only has half a second team. If that suggests that rookies Nico O’Reilly and James McAtee, together with second-choice goalkeeper Stefan Ortega, will be the first names on the teamsheet on Wednesday, Guardiola needs to find eight others to accompany them.

His plight is unlikely to attract sympathy. Not when it is partly out of choice, given his preference to operate with small squads, or when a £42m failed signing in Rodri’s position, in Kalvin Phillips, is among those loaned out. Or when his expenditure at City is over £1bn. Or when those still at his disposal often cost large fees and are paid very well. City don’t have quantity, but they definitely have quality. They only have one specialist striker, but one Erling Haaland may be preferable to the four or five centre-forwards some of his peers can call upon.

And yet Guardiola still has to decide how to use resources that are simultaneously meagre and magnificent. “We have to take care of ourselves,” he said. “Good sleep, drinks, good food, sleep a lot, training and recovery. We are who we are. I would love to have everyone, it’s not the position. We are few, few people. We have to do what we have do to. I don’t know if I’m going to think against Spurs, ‘Maybe some players from the academy’. I don’t know.” That could mean an unfamiliar look but Guardiola is weighing up whether to field some of the regulars. “If the players are fine they are going to play against Spurs but if they have doubts I’m not going to take a risk against Spurs, that’s for sure,” he said.

His decisions reflect the dynamics of the squad. The win over Watford is the only game Haaland has not started this season. The Norwegian has played every minute of the Premier League so far. The decision not to replace the departed Julian Alvarez renders him still more important. The early noises, meanwhile, are that City are unlikely to buy in January to fill the void Rodri has left. “We also have good players who can play in this position,” said Manuel Akanji, citing Mateo Kovacic and Ilkay Gundogan “or even” John Stones, Rico Lewis and himself.

Normally City are well-stocked for attacking midfielders. Yet with four of them out, Guardiola’s bench against Southampton on Saturday consisted of two defenders, Stones and Nathan Ake, and two youngsters, O’Reilly and McAtee. That might have left Gundogan as the only potential game-changer. City being City, their games often do not need changing but in four consecutive away matches, with Bournemouth, Sporting Lisbon and Brighton to come, that may be different.

A feature of Guardiola’s management is a fondness for sticking with his starters; only Sean Dyche can be more reluctant to turn to replacements. The theory was that the rule change from three substitutions to five would benefit the bigger clubs. The City manager has only made five changes in two league games so far this season.

Had he bought extra players, and bearing in mind it is hard to find those with more talent than his first-choice personnel, they may have simply been bench-warmers. And yet it is also notable that City made a transfer-market profit of over £100m last summer. If one theory is they are stockpiling funds ahead of potential punishments as their century of Premier League charges are held, one possibility is that they left themselves short of players. That, in a sentiment rarely aired over the last 16 years, that maybe City should have spent more.