By Opta Analyst | Created at 2024-11-20 22:39:48 | Updated at 2024-11-21 06:31:06
7 hours ago
On Tuesday, Milan, Sporting CP and Celtic recorded shock wins over Real Madrid, Manchester City and RB Leipzig. But what do those results mean for the 2024-25 Champions League?
People tend not to like change. That’s one reason the new-look UEFA Champions League wasn’t universally welcomed as soon as it was announced.
The main concern for others was that it would simply involve the same type of one-sided and peril-free matches that the old group stage brought but just in a different, and therefore more confusing, format.
This Tuesday, though, the new-look Champions League came to life and, to some, proved the remaining doubters wrong.
There were three shock results that few expected, including our very own Opta supercomputer, and which could have major consequences on the rest of the league phase.
Here, we analyse each game and the impact each team’s results this season have had on their chances of making it into the last 16 – the first of the knockout rounds – in this season’s Champions League.
Sporting CP 4-1 Man City
Opta Power Ranking: 10th vs 1st
Chances of qualifying for last 16 pre-tournament: Sporting 60.1%, Man City 95.2%.
Chances of qualifying for last 16 now: Sporting 89.3%, Man City 90.6%.
Rúben Amorim said goodbye to Lisbon with what could be the most famous victory of his entire tenure, as Sporting came from a goal down to thrash Manchester City.
City, the best team in the world according to the Opta Power Rankings, went into the season as the favourites to win the Champions League, and they came into this game as big favourites, too. The Opta supercomputer gave them a 50.1% chance of coming out on top in the Portuguese capital, with Sporting given just a 26.3% chance.
But on the back of successive defeats to Tottenham and Bournemouth in domestic competitions, Man City are somewhat out of sorts at the moment, and they were put to the sword in devastating fashion here.
Sporting battered the 2023 European champions with ruthless efficiency, recording just 27.3% possession and nine shots to City’s 20. Viktor Gyökeres hit a hat-trick that took him to joint-top of the Champions League 2024-25 goalscoring charts, with five goals.
This game was Pep Guardiola’s 175th as a manager in the Champions League, but only the third time he has seen his team concede four goals and by far the most shocking. The other two occasions were a 4-0 defeat to Real Madrid with Bayern Munich in April 2014 and a 4-0 loss to Barcelona with City more than eight years ago.
The result boosted Sporting’s chances of making the last 16 to 89.3%, only just behind City, who are still backed to turn this recent poor run around and make it through to the knockouts.
Guardiola’s side are predicted to finish in eighth place according to our projections, which would see them scrape through without needing the play-off, but they are still the favourites to win the entire tournament, given a 19.3% chance by the Opta supercomputer. It’s a long time until the knockouts begin, after all, and City are masters of peaking in the season’s crunch months.
Sporting are now predicted to finish second in the league phase of the competition, behind Liverpool. However, they only win the Champions League in 6.1% of the supercomputer’s latest simulations.
The manner of the defeat may be most damaging to City, who will need to show some real strength of character to get their season back on track.
Real Madrid 1-3 Milan
Opta Power Ranking: 3rd vs 28th
Chances of qualifying for last 16 pre-tournament: Real Madrid 93.6%, Milan 44.7%
Chances of qualifying for last 16 now: Real Madrid 70.8%, Milan 61.1%
Given the history of Milan, this wasn’t a result that – on paper, at least – looks all that shocking. But the paths of these two giants of European football have diverged significantly over the past two decades and it was without doubt a huge surprise.
Only Madrid (15) have more European Cup/Champions League titles than Milan (7), but they have won it six times since the Italians last did in 2007, and few expected an away win at the Bernabéu on Tuesday night.
Before kick-off, the Opta supercomputer saw Madrid win the game in 67.8% of simulations, while Milan won just 14.4% of the time, making the actual outcome the biggest upset of the night.
Milan were good value for their win, but they rode their luck a little, with Madrid creating chances worth 2.66 xG to Milan’s 2.45. Kylian Mbappé had a(nother) off night, though, failing to score with any of his eight shots.
Milan were much more efficient in front of goal, but they deserve credit for creating as much as they did at the home of the title holders. This was their first-ever win away to a reigning European champion.
Both teams now have records of won two, lost two in the Champions League this season, and Madrid’s chances of making the last 16 have slipped to 70.8% from as high as 93.6% before the season started. According to the supercomputer’s predicted points totals, Madrid are expected to finish 12th – one place below Milan – meaning a spot in the play-off round.
Madrid’s chances of retaining their title have dropped to 5.5%, making them seventh favourites to win it. We should have all learned by now that nobody should doubt Real Madrid in this competition, though.
Celtic 3-1 RB Leipzig
Opta Power Ranking: 56th vs 14th
Chances of qualifying for last 16 pre-tournament: Celtic 21.1%, RB Leipzig 63.5%
Chances of qualifying for last 16 now: Celtic 40.8%, RB Leipzig 4.4%
Well, well, well. Brendan Rogers and Celtic’s Champions League charge continues.
The Bhoys continued their impressive start to their campaign on Tuesday, coming from behind to beat Bundesliga side RB Leipzig.
Christoph Baumgartner put the visitors ahead midway through the first half before Nicolas Kuhn’s brace gave Celtic a 2-1 lead on the stroke of half-time. Reo Hatate then sealed victory for the home side.
This was a considerable upset. According to the Opta Power Rankings, there were 42 places between the two sides ahead of kick-off, while the Opta supercomputer gave Celtic just a 27.7% chance of winning the game before a ball was kicked.
But win it they did, and Celtic’s seven points (W2 D1 L1) is already their most in a Champions League campaign since 2012-13 (10). They last scored more goals (currently 9 in 2024-25) in a Champions League/European Cup campaign in 1977-78 (13).
As a result, their chances of qualifying for the last 16 have now shot up to 40.8%, which is almost double the chance they were given at the start of the tournament (21.1%). According to the supercomputer’s predicted points totals, they are expected to finish 16h in the group phase.
For RB Leipzig, their wait for a first point in the Champions League this campaign continues. With four defeats from four, their chances of reaching the knockout stages have cratered and now sit at 4.4%.
It’s the first time they’ve lost four consecutive UCL games since October 2021, while they’re the first German side to lose their first four in a single campaign since VfB Stuttgart in 2007-08.
It’s official: the Champions League 2024-25 has been blown wide open.
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