By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-07-18 17:28:12 | Updated at 2026-08-04 07:59:28
2 weeks ago
France will play England in the 2026 World Cup third-place play-off on Saturday. We look back on what some see as a bit of an odd fixture at the tournament.
After 102 games, there are just two remaining at the 2026 World Cup.
One is the biggest game in football, the World Cup final. The opportunity for players to cement legacies, to conquer the biggest achievement in the game, and to make history.
The other… is on Saturday.
It is quite telling that with France and England losing their World Cup semi-finals this week, the language around their impending third-place play-off has been along the lines of ‘having to stick around’ to carry out their duties.
Yes, both will be very disappointed to be playing the game, because it means they’ll be in Miami rather than contesting the World Cup final 24 hours later in New Jersey, but it does at least give them a chance to go out on a bit of a high.
FIFA calls it the ‘Bronze final’ and do hand out bronze medals to the victors. Whether those medals end up in a display case or a drawer is anyone’s guess, but it should be remembered that Croatia celebrated their win over Morocco in 2022 like a trophy, and coming third in a World Cup is undoubtedly still an impressive achievement.
The winner also increases their prize money by $2 million, earning $29m, while the fourth-place team are given $27m.
But to many, the third-place play-off often feels like something of a friendly or even an exhibition game.
There has been a third-place play-off at every World Cup bar two, the inaugural event in 1930, and the 1950 edition.
It is still an official World Cup match, so players can add to their appearances, goals and assists in the tournament. Who knows? Maybe Kylian Mbappé, Harry Kane or Jude Bellingham could charge ahead of Lionel Messi in the Golden Boot race before Sunday’s final.
Players have used the game to add to their numbers in the past. Just Fontaine is the top scorer in World Cup third-place play-offs, despite only playing in one of them. He hit four goals for France in their 6-3 win over West Germany in 1958, increasing his already remarkable total of goals in that tournament to 13, the most by a player at a single World Cup.
Another record from a third-place play-off is the fastest goal in World Cup history. Hakan Sükür took just 11 seconds to score for Türkiye against South Korea in 2002, before his side eventually won 3-2.
It does feel like we see quite a few goals in the third-place play-off, possibly adding to the feeling of it being one that the players are perhaps not giving their absolute all in.
There have been 76 goals scored in 20 third-place play-offs, an average of 3.80 per game, the second-most of any World Cup ‘round’ that has featured at least six games in the competition’s history.
That is almost exactly the same as the final, which has an average of 3.81 goals per game (80 goals in 21 finals – not counting the 1950 World Cup when there was no standalone final), so any theory that teams score more goals because they’re not all that focused defensively can perhaps be dismissed, given the game with the most riding on it has featured slightly more. Then again, you could argue that maybe teams concede a lot in this game due to indifference, and in the final due to nerves.
Germany have played in more third-place play-offs (five) than any other team and have also won the most (four). Brazil have the next most appearances (four), having won two along with Poland, Croatia and France.
This will be France’s fourth third-place play-off at a World Cup, and their first since 1986. Les Bleus have won two and lost one (3-2 vs Poland in 1982), but come up against an England team who have never won it. In their only two previous appearances, the Three Lions lost 2-1 to Italy in 1990 and 2-0 to Belgium in 2018.
The third-place play-off has never gone to penalties, and only once has it gone to extra-time, which was France eventually beating Belgium 4-2 in 1986. Perhaps teams being so desperate to get on the plane home means they subconsciously try to avoid being there any longer than they have to be.
We can look at more data from 1966 to 2022, the period Opta has detailed World Cup data for. Excluding own goals, there have been 50 goals scored in third-place play-offs, from a total expected goals value (xG) of 52.8.
So, there is a slight underperformance, but there generally is at the World Cup, perhaps due to nerves, or inspired goalkeepers, or funky footballs (we’re looking at you, Jabulani).
The third-place play-off saw the smallest xG underperformance of any round from 1966 to 2022 (-0.19 per game). That is compared to the semi-finals (-0.42 per game), final (-0.60 per game), quarter-finals (-0.65 per game), group stage (-0.65 per game), and last 16 (-0.79 per game).
As expected, too, there are usually changes made for the game. Managers often see it as a chance to give fringe players who have not had much game time a run out as a reward for showing patience throughout the tournament.
Looking at men’s World Cups from 2006, on average, managers made 1.5 changes to starting XIs for their semi-finals (including the two 2026 semi-finals). Compare that to the final (from 2006 to 2022), fo which the average was just 0.6, with coaches understandably reluctant to veer away from what worked to get them there.
For the third-place play-off, though, managers on average made 3.9 changes to their starting lineup between 2006 and 2022, so they were clearly far more comfortable bringing new faces in when there was only a bronze medal to play for.
Perhaps we can look forward to a classic between France and England on Saturday, even if there are some less familiar faces. It will be Didier Deschamps’ last game as France boss, though Thomas Tuchel will hope it’s not also his final game for England. The German does have a contract until the end of Euro 2028, though.
Some players might fear it’ll be their final chance to appear at a World Cup, and so whatever players think about bronze medals, surely professional pride will ensure we get a decent contest.
No-one travelled to North America this summer to finish third, but while it isn’t the World Cup final, there is something to be said for making the best of a bad situation.
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